Last week, spot gold rose more than 2%, achieving its fifth consecutive weekly gain, which is the longest consecutive upward trend since January 2023. In today's Asian market, gold accelerated its decline in the short term, falling nearly $40 during the day, and is currently hovering around $2,363.
Warning is coming!
On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.56%, the Nasdaq down more than 2%, and the S&P down 0.88%.
Last week, the decline in U.S. stocks was mainly affected by two aspects.
On the one hand, Fed officials are frequently "hawkish".
A series of disappointing inflation data has forced the Fed to reset the schedule for its first rate cut, and Fed officials have frequently "hawkished" and repeatedly dampened expectations of rate cuts.
On Friday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, the most dovish official within the Fed, "reversed course" in favor of delaying the rate cut.
Goolsbee is a very representative figure, and his speech means that the Fed has charted a new course, seeking a balance between its dual mission in the past and now aiming to fight inflation.
In addition to Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also said that the Fed needs to gain more confidence that inflation is falling before cutting interest rates, and may delay rate cuts until after 2024.
This week will enter a period of silence before the meeting, with no more Fed officials coming out to speak.
The only certainty for the Fed rate hike now is that it will be "cut for longer than expected", and the Fed will now need to see more monthly inflation data to rebuild confidence.
On the other hand, the U.S. tech giants have suffered an epic plunge.
The black swan raided the "Seven Sisters of U.S. Stocks" (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla), and the total market value evaporated by more than 960 billion US dollars (about 6.9 trillion yuan) in a single week, which was the worst week in history.
The fuse of this crash was that the AI bull stock Supermicro Computer suddenly released a major negative signal, which triggered market worries and frantically sold funds.
After the worst week in history, U.S. technology stocks are about to usher in a major test of earnings season, with Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, and Google's parent company Alphabet all reporting results next week. Analysts pointed out that with the collapse of the stock prices of technology giants, market funds may intend to avoid the risk of performance crashes in advance.
It is worth noting that market funds are being withdrawn from the U.S. stock market at the fastest pace in more than a year, and some investors are selling aggressively and will continue to sell.
For U.S. stocks as a whole, Wall Street is less optimistic about this earnings season.
Wall Street's top strategists say exposure to equities is now so high that any weakness could trigger an even bigger plunge once investors start reducing their long positions.
At the same time, analysts with the nickname "Wall Street's God Operator" warn investors not to buy now while the stock market is falling, because there will be a wave of sell-off in the coming weeks before the market really bottoms.
Speaking of perfect stocks, let's take a look at how A-shares performed today.
Today, the A-share market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading the decline. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.32%.
Overall, more than 3,300 stocks in the whole market fell, and northbound funds bought a small net of 1.389 billion yuan throughout the day.
Today, some core targets of the low-altitude economic sector have fallen sharply, mainly due to emotional disturbances. Wanfeng Aowei received a warning letter from the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau on the evening of April 19 due to misleading statements in response to investors' questions.
In addition, there are many more "new faces" on today's sector gainers, such as the aquaculture industry, tourism and catering, and beverage manufacturing (liquor stocks) that have been adjusted for a period of time.
The most eye-catching of the "new faces" is the national defense and military industry, specifically, the concepts of China Shipbuilding Department, terahertz, and domestic aircraft carriers have appeared at the top of the list of gainers.
Some analysts believe that judging from the recent market, sustainable themes are scarce. If the subject of military information can be sustained, it may drive the bullish atmosphere in the market.
In addition to this, investors need to pay attention to the news on the international situation.
Israel launches air strikes!
On the evening of the 21st local time, Iraqi militia forces fired four rockets at a US military base in the Omar oil field in Deir ez-Zor Province in eastern Syria.
Earlier in the day, Lebanese "Square" TV also reported that a drone attack was carried out by a U.S. military base near the northern Hasakah province in northeastern Syria.
The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Iraqi militias used drones to attack U.S. military bases in northern Hasakah province in northeastern Syria that night, and U.S. surface-to-air missiles shot down drones before they reached the base. Subsequently, Iraqi militias fired rockets at the base, and explosions were heard near the base, and it is unclear whether there were any casualties.
At present, there is no response from the Iraqi militia and the US military.
In addition, the US House of Representatives voted to pass a foreign aid bill.
On Saturday local time, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a $95 billion foreign aid bill. These include more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine and $26 billion in aid to Israel.
It is reported that the Senate, which has a Democratic majority, is scheduled to begin considering the bill next Tuesday and is expected to finally pass it sometime next week, which will clear the way for Biden to sign the bill into law.
It is worth noting that the latest move by the United States may once again escalate the already tense international situation.
Jintou.com: Analysis of gold trend on April 22
From a technical point of view, the market has fallen, and the overall amplitude is relatively large, but at a low level, this trend is not a diving market, but more like an active retracement.
Image source: Jintou.com
The intraday trading opportunity should be over, the overall trend rhythm is relatively slow, the key point is when the support of the weekly level 5 moving average arrives, I think the probability of direct intraday arrival is low. If you go back today to directly test the support of the 5 moving average at the weekly level, then the downward trend will be a little stronger.
Here it is more inclined to a small rebound in the market at the evening around the 10 moving average of the daily level, and then fall back, a small shock, and wait for the 5 moving average support at the weekly level of the day after tomorrow to approach, and then the market will rebound upward with the help of support.
So, intraday trading opportunities should be over during the day.