49 points to win, 18 points to win, into the playoffs and exposed! NBA favorites are indeed overrated

The NBA regular season has come to an end, and the play-offs have not changed the fate of some teams, with the Bulls and Hawks in ninth and tenth place in the East, and the Kings and Warriors in ninth and tenth place in the West, also out of the tournament. If you want to say that the biggest loser in the play-offs, it must be the Lakers. Without the play-offs, they'd be eighth in the West, and they'd face their favorite opponent in the regular season: the Thunder. But a play-off game allowed them to meet their nemesis: the defending champion Nuggets, and basically announced the end of the Lakers' first round of this season. In fact, the suspense of the playoffs in the East this season is not big, the Celtics are dominant, the Knicks lack Randle, the Bucks lack Brother Alphabet, and the other three groups of matchups will consume a lot in the first round. According to the probability prediction given by the American media "BR", the probability of the Celtics winning the Eastern Conference championship is 76%!

But the West is different, with the rise of the Thunder and the Timberwolves, two super dark horses, the defending champion Nuggets have encountered more resistance this season, the impact of the Thunder, the Timberwolves' twin towers and defensive counterattacks, both teams are not afraid of the Nuggets. The top three positions were not decided until the final moment of the regular season finale! It is worth noting that except for the Clippers and Mavericks who locked their positions early, the other teams in the West basically have no rotational rest, and the Nuggets are under the most pressure, while the young team is full of energy, which is not too burdensome, and can still maintain the game. However, the 49-point victory and the 18-point victory showed the stuff as soon as they entered the playoffs! The NBA championship favorite is also overrated.

Here's an example. The first Thunder in the West this season, the last three games of the finale, first beat the Spurs 127-89, this game does not have much meaning, because the Spurs are in a state of direct abandonment, and then beat the Bucks by 18 points, the Thunder started to open the point difference, and the second team is still winning points, entering garbage time early. Including the finale, in the face of the Mavericks who lacked Doncic and Irving, the Thunder still did not relax, and finally beat the Mavericks by 135-86, 49 points, and finally locked the first place in the West! The rise of the Thunder this season is indeed unexpected, and it can even be described as an exaggeration, from 40-42 last season, early exit in the play-offs, to 57-25 in the regular season this season to lock the first place in the West, and more and more helpers have emerged around the core Alexander, such as Jewi and Holmgren.

Including a series of gorgeous statistics in the regular season, the offensive efficiency is third in the league, the defensive efficiency is fourth in the league, three-point shooting rate (38.9%) + steals (8.5) + blocks (6.6) + scoring with turnovers (20.5 points), all of which are the first in the league! And Alexander averaged 30.1 points + 5.5 rebounds + 6.2 assists + 2.0 steals per game this season, and was selected as the final three candidates for MVP and the three candidates for the best key man of the season. But once in the playoffs, facing the Pelicans who stumbled and caught the last train, in the absence of Zion on the other side, in the case of McCollum missing a three-point shot, 2 points narrowly won. It can't be described as ugly, because the whole team is really hard, including Alexander stepping up at critical moments, but this team is more like a castle in the air.

Three obvious shortcomings: First, he averaged 42 rebounds per game in the regular season, 27th in the league, and the same is true for the playoffs. Second, the Thunder is a team that relies heavily on projection, the second in the league in shooting percentage and the first in the league in three-point shooting percentage in the regular season. To put it simply, when the Rockets and Warriors grabbed the seven-game battle, Harden led the team to 27 three-pointers and made 0, but it was a lesson from the past. Third, this team, except for Dort and Hayward, has 0 playoff experience, and is not suitable for the hand-to-hand combat and positional warfare of the playoffs at all, and their mistakes will increase as soon as they speed up.

Let's take a look at another set of data! According to the modeling calculation of the American media "BR", the probability of the Thunder passing the first round is not high among the top eight teams in the East and West, only 69%, which is not as good as the Green Army, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Knicks, but the probability of the Thunder winning the division championship is as high as 33.1%, and the probability of winning the championship is 12.9%, which is second only to the Celtics, which can be called the existence of the second gear! You must know that the probability of the defending champion Nuggets winning the championship is only 5.7% To put it bluntly, this team is young and impactful, but on the basis of lack of experience, the playoff team ceiling may be high, but the floor is also very low!

But objectively speaking, even if the Pelicans are eliminated, the second round may be the Clippers' supergiant four-star lineup waiting for them, and the Thunder lack the configuration of the matchup card pepper combination; In my opinion, the Thunder basically have to pay tuition this season, they have no shortage of talent, but the process of cashing in on talent, or if they want to blossom, they have to wait 2-3 years!