laitimes

The increase in express delivery is still expected, the competition between Yunda and Shentong is fierce, and the stock price of J&T is facing the test

author:Courier Observer

On April 19, the March results released by A-share listed express delivery showed that the industry continued to increase in the off-season, the growth rate of Yunda's business volume exceeded that of Shentong and Yuantong, and the single ticket income of the four express delivery companies continued to decline.

5 express delivery still maintain the traditional competition pattern, but the internal echelon differentiation of Tongda Rabbit is accelerating, data show that Zhongtong leads with an average of more than 90 million votes per day, YTO has an average of 70 million votes per day, 62 million votes for Yunda, 56 million votes per day for Shentong, and 43 million votes per day in the first quarter of J&T.

The increase in express delivery is still expected, the competition between Yunda and Shentong is fierce, and the stock price of J&T is facing the test

Yibao.com found that the competition for business volume in the off-season is still fierce, although Yunda leads the growth rate, but the single ticket revenue fell by 18% in March, even lower than Shentong 0.02 yuan, Yunda wants to widen the business volume gap with Shentong, both maintain a growth rate of more than 30%, and there is still suspense in the next qualifying competition.

It is worth noting that compared with Yunda and Shentong, although the growth rate of business volume is not outstanding, the income of YTO per ticket has been more than 2 cents higher, and the profitability is prominent, highlighting the echelon differentiation of the Tongda system.

The increase in express delivery is still expected, the competition between Yunda and Shentong is fierce, and the stock price of J&T is facing the test

As of the close of trading on April 22

The performance of the capital market basically confirms the competitive pattern of the express delivery industry. As of the close of A-shares and H-shares on April 22, the total market value of SF Express was 174.3 billion yuan, Zhongtong was 129.3 billion Hong Kong dollars, J&T was 64.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, YTO was 55.1 billion yuan, Yunda was 20.7 billion yuan, and Shentong was 12.8 billion yuan.

On April 22, 66.96 million restricted shares of Debang held by Yunda began to circulate, accounting for 6.52% of Debang's total share capital. Debang's share price performed smoothly throughout the day, rising 1.35% to close at 16.56 yuan.

Trading data shows that Debang shares traded 79.3 million yuan throughout the day, and there was no sell-off. According to the investment cost of Yunda at that time was 8.96 yuan per share, according to the current Debang stock price of 16.5 yuan, Yunda made more than 85%.

The pressure on J&T's share price is greater, on April 27, J&T will usher in the lifting of the ban period after half a year of listing, the company's share price has fallen below the issue price, it has fallen 54% since the beginning of this year, Hillhouse, Sequoia, Boyu, Tencent and other star capital institutions have been floating losses, and selling or continuing to hold after the lifting of the ban period will determine the future stock price trend of J&T.

Beginning in March, the new version of the "Express Market Management Measures" and the new version of the "Express Service" national standards have been implemented, and the new regulations of the industry have put forward new requirements for the operation of express delivery enterprises.

The increase in express delivery is still expected, the competition between Yunda and Shentong is fierce, and the stock price of J&T is facing the test

In this context, compared with Tongda Rabbit, which mainly does e-commerce express delivery, temporarily "makes up classes" at the end, players who focus on the mid-to-high-end market are relatively relaxed. According to monthly data statistics, SF Holdings' revenue in the first quarter reached more than 63.2 billion yuan, of which the revenue of the express logistics segment was 48.3 billion yuan, and the express business volume excluding Fengwang reached 2.958 billion tickets, an increase of about 13.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023.

According to the 2023 express service satisfaction report reported by the State Post Bureau, among the 9 brands, SF continues to rank first in the public satisfaction score of express delivery services, which is the 15th consecutive year that SF has ranked first.

SF Express said that on the one hand, it will continue to consolidate its advantages in the field of traditional aging parts, and on the other hand, it will continue to make breakthroughs and realize the linkage between comprehensive business matrices by digging deep into new needs, so as to continuously maintain business tension.

Driven by the overseas and sinking fields, while the express logistics business maintained steady growth, SF's supply chain and international business rebounded year-on-year and month-on-month in 2024, and the monthly revenue also recovered to more than 5 billion yuan.

Yibao.com found that from the perspective of Tongdatu's competitive landscape, although the business volume is still a certain distance from Zhongtong, YTO continues to improve its profitability and gradually widen the gap with Yunda and Shentong.

The increase in express delivery is still expected, the competition between Yunda and Shentong is fierce, and the stock price of J&T is facing the test

At the network management committee meeting held in April, Yu Weijiao, chairman of YTO, pointed out that since the beginning of this year, YTO people have been deeply engaged in the domestic and international markets, comprehensively improved the core competitiveness of domestic and international products and supply chain service capabilities, and achieved a "good start" in various core business indicators, which has been well received by all walks of life.

For the "No. 1 project" of network digitalization, Pan Shuimiao pointed out that the best defense is to do a good job in cost control, and the best offense is to build brand premium capabilities. The headquarters will vigorously support the branch to increase equipment investment to improve quality, reduce costs and increase efficiency, so as to enhance the competitiveness of Lanpai.

In addition, it is worth noting that in March, Zhou Jian, a veteran of express delivery, joined YTO as the president of a Hong Kong listed company, and the convergence and integration of YTO's international business and domestic sector will be accelerated again.

For Yunda and Shentong, seizing market share from price-sensitive customers remains the top priority. In March, the growth rate of Yunda's business volume surpassed that of Shentong to achieve the lead, but the revenue of a single ticket declined the most, and the strategy of exchanging price for volume still worked.

The increase in express delivery is still expected, the competition between Yunda and Shentong is fierce, and the stock price of J&T is facing the test

Recently, Yunda has set off a new round of empowerment training on the whole network, strengthened the strategy of integrating the whole network, and seized the market with the secret of stability, speed and accuracy. Compared with last year's soaring progress, Shentong's growth rate has slowed down since 2024, and the next 618 battle will determine the performance of the two companies in the second quarter.

J&T also faced the test of business volume and profitability, with a year-on-year increase of 46.1% in the Chinese market in the first quarter, with an average daily volume of 43.3 million pieces, an average daily volume of 11.3 million pieces in the Southeast Asian market, and an average daily volume of 7.05 million pieces in emerging markets.

Despite the rapid growth, from the perspective of the Chinese market, J&T's business volume is still lower than that of three links and one reach, and it may be more urgent to find the critical point of scale effect as soon as possible and maximize profitability than J&T's development of overseas markets.