Recent Iranian and Israeli retaliation and counter-retaliation, with Jordan helping Israel fend off Iranian drones. Iran is furious, Israel is surprised, has Jordan really turned from an enemy of Israel to an ally? Why did Jordan, which has nearly half of its population be Palestinians, suddenly betrayed Palestine this time, and even went so far as to be regarded as a traitor by the entire Islamic world?
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In retaliation, after Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria, Iran launched an attack in the early hours of April 14. 300 missiles and drones, fired at Israel overnight.
The next day, Jordan found itself the focal point of the confrontation between Iran and Israel. The retaliation has been known for a long time, with Iran giving 72 hours' notice to its neighbors. The Jordanian Air Force intercepted and shot down dozens of Iranian missiles and drones that entered its airspace and flew to Israel, and there are media reports that Jordan has long been prepared. The move angered Iran, with some Iranian media calling Jordan "the first Arab country to directly protect Israel's airspace."
Middle East expert Dong Manyuan:
"They feel that Jordan is too bold, because neighboring countries dare not do this kind of thing, and Jordan has never intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. For the first time, no one dared to offend Iran. ”
More news in the days since then suggests that Jordan may have become more deeply involved in the U.S.-led defense.
According to U.S. military sources and preliminary reports, it was U.S. and allied aircraft that shot down most of the drones and cruise missiles, and Biden praised the U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle fighter squadron that shot down more than 70 Iranian drones.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"Jordan is undoubtedly involved, and Jordan has helped the United States in a sense, and in a way is on the side of Iran's enemies. ”
After Jordan intercepted the Iranian drone, Iran has warned that if Jordan intervenes, it "will be the next target". Jordan's response has been the same regardless of whether the threat comes from Iran or Israel, the Jordanian government said.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"From an international point of view, it is also reasonable that the Iranian aircraft was shot down by Jordan. Jordan tries not to offend either side and wants to stay out of the situation and not to be drawn into the contradictions between the two sides. ”
Aftermath revealed that Jordan was not the only Arab country that contributed to Israel's defense that night. The Royal Saudi Air Force also shot down Iranian artillery shells flying in its airspace, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reportedly providing critical intelligence ahead of the attack.
This time, however, the Jordanian royal family's choice has sparked outrage at home and among its neighbors, with images on social media portraying King Abdullah as a traitor wearing an armband of the Israeli flag. Until then, Jordan had been considered a supporter of the Palestinians.
Li Shaoxian, Dean of the China Institute of Arab States Studies, Ningxia University:
"Jordan is very sensitive to Israeli-Palestinian relations, which to a certain extent is vital to the survival of the Jordanian royal family. ”
Since Israel's entry into Gaza, Jordan has stood with Palestine in every official statement.
Middle East expert Dong Manyuan:
"Jordan's 60 percent population is Palestinian, and the slamming of Israel, even the recall of its ambassador, is a matter of maintaining stability in the country and creating a positive image in the Arab world. ”
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In the wake of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, many countries in the Middle East have been the focus of media attention due to military attacks or diplomatic mediation, with the exception of Jordan, which is close to Israel.
Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese Arab States Studies at Ningxia University:
"Israel's security and Jordan are directly related, especially in the West Bank, which has three entry and exit points for people and goods in and out of the West Bank. Therefore, in order to ensure the stability of the West Bank, Israel is absolutely inseparable from Jordan. ”
Jordan is also inseparable from Israel, which drew red lines for Israel early on.
At the end of October 2023, Israel demanded that Palestinians in the West Bank must leave and travel to Jordan or face an armed attack. King Abdullah of Jordan immediately said that the expulsion of Palestinians would be a "red line".
Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese Arab States Studies at Ningxia University:
"Jordan is already relatively poor, with a per capita GDP of just over $4,000, and accepting so many refugees is both financially burdensome and politically challenging. ”
In order to support the Arab brothers in Gaza, Jordan has been actively pushing Israel to allow more aid to enter, when the Rafah crossing could not enter Gaza efficiently, it has successfully got Israel to allow the World Food Programme to send supplies to Gaza through Jordan by land, in order to establish a field hospital in Gaza, the Jordanian prince personally delivered supplies to the Rafah crossing, Jordan has participated in more than 190 airdrops to the Gaza Strip, and Jordan is the only country that has carried out the airdrop of supplies earlier.
It's not just that Jordan's relationship with Israel is extraordinary, but Jordan's relationship with Israel's ally, the United States, is even more extraordinary. The U.S. describes Jordan's relationship with Jordan on its website, saying, "The U.S. has helped maintain Jordan's stability and prosperity through economic and military assistance and close political cooperation." "A memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Jordan in 2018 shows that the United States has provided Jordan with $6.375 billion in bilateral foreign assistance over five years.
Li Shaoxian, Dean of the China Institute of Arab States Studies, Ningxia University:
"Jordan is a very scarce national resource, and an important source of income for Jordan is aid, including from the United States. So it's very dependent on the United States, and it's very dependent on Israel, and that's one of the reasons why it's important to maintain relations with Israel. ”
The interception of Iranian drones by the Jordanian Air Force this time demonstrates the strength of the Jordanian Air Force, but where does its strength come from?
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"Jordan's relationship with the United States is very deep, and the defense cooperation relationship is also very deep, the two sides have frequent exercises, and every year the United States will give Jordan at least $1 billion in military aid, for such a small Middle East country with an area of only 90,000 and a population of more than 11 million, the United States has given such a large amount of aid, which also shows the importance that the United States attaches to Jordan. ”
The Jordanian Air Force has dozens of F-16 fighters, Black Hawk helicopters. Ten years ago, Israel transferred 16 decommissioned Cobra aircraft to Jordan, but before the Kazakh-Israeli conflict, Jordanian air defense systems still relied on the American Hawker surface-to-air missile system, which was decommissioned decades ago. Soon after the Kazakh-Israeli conflict broke out, Jordan asked the United States to deploy the "Patriot" air defense missile system.
Middle East expert Dong Manyuan:
"At this critical moment, Jordan is desperately trying to hold the United States back, it is first worried about Syria, and secondly, it is worried about Shiite forces in Iraq, and it wants to demand that the United States must protect Jordan in the event of a death. ”
In the Middle East, where many power games are played, Jordan was once an enemy of Israel, a traitor by Arab countries, an enemy of the PLO, and severed diplomatic relations with Iran. How is it struggling to survive as Israel's neighbor, and is this interception of Iranian drones another betrayal of the Arab world and its Palestinian brothers?
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Jordan's predicament stems not only from Israel's neighbourhood, but also from the fact that it is home to 60 per cent of the Palestinian population, which makes up 48 per cent of the entire Palestinian population. In the unpredictable situation in the Middle East for decades, the Hashemite royal family of Jordan has constantly struggled to choose between the demands of the Palestinian people in Jordan and regional relations in order to seek security and development.
On May 14, 1948, Israel was founded and the First Middle East War broke out, and in the two years before and after, more than 500 Palestinian villages were destroyed and tens of thousands of people were killed. An estimated 750,000 Palestinians have been forced to leave their homes and become refugees. As close neighbours, Jordan has taken in their Palestinian brothers.
In 1964, the Palestine Liberation Organization was founded in Jerusalem.
In 1967, in the third Middle East war, Israel won a resounding victory, and King Hussein of Jordan once again accepted the 400,000 Palestinians brought by Arafat and gave them asylum.
However, the increasingly powerful PLO used Jordan as a base to continuously launch cross-border attacks against Israel, causing Israel to frequently retaliate against Jordan, and it also clashed with the Jordanian army in Jordan and hijacked international flights, which discredited the Jordanian government and king in the international community, and the long-buried contradictions finally intensified.
Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese Arab States Studies at Ningxia University:
"At that time, the Palestinian question had drawn Jordan into a conflict with Israel, and it was under pressure from within the Palestine Liberation Organization and Yasser Arafat to challenge the authority of the Jordanian king. On the other hand, there was pressure from Israel, because Israel wanted to fight the PLO, so when it was trapped inside and outside, it had no other recourse for help. ”
With the assistance of the United States and Israel, the Jordanian armed forces launched an armed attack on all PLO camps in Jordan and drove the PLO out of Jordan. Since then, Jordan has been seen by the PLO as its worst enemy, and at one time as a traitor to the Arab world.
Middle East expert Dong Manyuan:
"Jordan has been condemned by a group of Arab countries, and Jordan has become an accomplice of the United States and Israel, and is massacring Arab brothers and Palestinian brothers. At that time, Jordan was very isolated in the Arab world, and in this case, on the one hand, it wanted to continue to hold the thigh of the United States, and at the same time, it also made sufficient gestures to ease relations with Arab countries. By giving these refugees Jordanian citizenship, they can enjoy Jordan's various welfare policies, various education and medical care, and can develop their own careers. ”
In 1988, Jordan relinquished sovereignty over part of the West Bank and reconciled with Israel, making Jordan the closest country in the entire Arab world to Israel.
Five years later, in 1993, Arafat, who had persisted in the anti-Semitic struggle, signed the Oslo Accords with Israel in the United States, recognizing Israel's legitimacy and agreeing to establish an autonomous government in Palestine. Palestine and Israel are on the road to resolving hatred, and Jordan can also take greater steps in its dealings with Israel.
Jordan and Israel also established diplomatic relations and signed a peace treaty in the same year.
Li Shaoxian, Dean of the China Institute of Arab States Studies, Ningxia University:
"When Jordan and Israel established diplomatic relations in 1994, in fact, before the establishment of diplomatic relations, the two sides were more than diplomatic relations, but Jordan will not openly establish diplomatic relations with Israel. After the signing of the Oslo Accords, the political conditions were ripe, so it made its relationship with Israel public. The Jordanian royal family is the weakest of the world's royal families, but 70% of the ruling citizens are Palestinians, so this small dynasty is sitting on a crater. ”
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On the one hand, the hatred with the PLO is resolved, and on the other hand, Jordan attaches great importance to development and relations with Israel. In 1997, Jordanian soldiers killed seven Israeli students at the border, and the King of Jordan went to Israel to offer condolences to their families.
Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese Arab States Studies at Ningxia University:
The King of Jordan knelt before the parents of the seven girls and begged for forgiveness, and the matter was finally settled. Therefore, it is not easy for Jordan to deal with its relations with Israel. That is, on the one hand, it has to take into account the anti-Israeli sentiments of the common people at home, and on the other hand, it has to properly handle the relations between Israel and the United States. ”
Surrounded by many neighbors in the Middle East, known as powder kegs, Jordan has carefully managed its relations with all parties, and as a country without oil, it has also achieved rapid economic development.
Now, with 1.7 million Palestinians displaced in the besieged West Bank and Israeli settler attacks surging in the West Bank, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has once again left Jordan facing a huge crisis, and Jordan will be a direct victim if the conflict spills over.
The Jordanian public condemns not only the relentless bombing of Gaza, but also the country's government's diplomatic relations with Israel and the unwavering support of Western leaders for Israel. Public outrage from all political factions has put the Jordanian government, which is heavily dependent on U.S. aid, in a difficult position, and the Jordanian monarchy now faces the challenge of maintaining relations with the United States and Israel while also dealing with growing civil unrest.
However, after intercepting Iranian drones and missiles, Jordan reaffirmed its peace treaty with Israel, saying that its termination would harm the Palestinians.
On April 17, after thanking European and American leaders for their help, Israel still vowed to retaliate against Iran's attack at great risk, while Iran held a military parade on the same day, saying that if Israel launched a "minimal invasion," Iran would completely destroy Israel and leave nothing behind.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"Iran's biggest target right now is Israel, followed by the United States, and it doesn't really care about Jordan right now. Although Jordan is also an ally of the United States, it will not take the initiative to provoke Iran. But if its security is violated by Iran, Jordan will undoubtedly seek help from the United States."
In the early morning of the 19th, explosions were heard in Iran, Syria, and Iraq, and the US side reported that Israel had done it, but Iran denied this, and said that the Isfahan air base that was attacked was not damaged. In order to ease the situation in the region, Jordan has also held urgent talks with leaders of many European and regional countries. The Israeli-Iraq confrontation has once again put Jordan between two regional powers and has to face the dilemma of having to make another choice.
In retaliation for Iran's air strikes, Israel has carried out what has been called a de-escalation retaliation, and analysts believe that the situation will not deteriorate for the time being, but it is difficult to predict whether it will escalate in the future. How will Jordan deal with it in the future? For Jordan, which is seeking to protect itself in the cracks, this is not only a matter of diplomatic sidelines, but also a matter of national destiny. In the chaos in the Middle East, not only Jordan, but how many countries feel the turmoil?
Producer: Song Yang
Choreographer: Hu Yuanrong
Editor: Wang Jinjie