On April 17, local time, China's southern theater launched a military exercise with live ammunition on the Chinese side of the China-Myanmar border, which attracted great attention.
People's Liberation Army (PLA) military exercises on the China-Myanmar border
You must know that every live-fire military exercise will set off a bloody storm in the international community or in the surrounding areas.
So why is China conducting a live-fire military exercise?
In fact, there are two main purposes for China to conduct military exercises with real troops and live ammunition, the first is to safeguard its own national defense and security, and the second is to be a referee in the "Myanmar Chicken Contest".
The refugee problem of the Burmese civil war
First, the biggest problem with war is that it brings chaos, and chaos leads to the problem of refugees.
Burmese refugees
You must know that Myanmar is also a country with a large population, with a total population of more than 50 million. What's worse is that Myanmar is all yellow people, and this group of people goes to the Chinese, and you can't tell which is Burmese and which is Chinese.
Once the Myanmar region is chaotic due to the war, and a large number of refugees hit China's border areas, it will definitely put great pressure on China's border security.
And we also have to take into account the possibility of some armed forces being mixed in with this group of refugees.
The situation in northern Myanmar is complex, and it can be said that it is a mixture of fish and dragons, and it is not surprising that there are no people among the refugees. Coupled with the complex ethnic situation in Myanmar, the arrival of this group of people in China will definitely bring social chaos.
And the current internal situation in Myanmar is very likely to be the collapse of the government, followed by war. The current "official government of Myanmar" is the military junta, which is very unpopular in Burma.
Myanmar junta
In the 2021 Myanmar general election, Aung San Suu Kyi, who was targeted by the Myanmar military junta, won the election, and the Myanmar military junta directly staged a coup d'état, arrested and placed Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest.
At the same time, because the Burmese military government likes to engage in "Greater Burmese Nationalism", the ethnic minorities in Myanmar have directly begun to "rebel" under the banner of Aung San Suu Kyi.
So from February 2021 to the present, Myanmar has been in a state of internal war, and Myanmar has roughly formed a situation of confrontation between the ethnic armed forces in the northern border areas of Myanmar and the Myanmar military junta.
Logically speaking, the armed rebellion of ethnic minorities will not succeed in ancient and modern times, both in China and abroad, because their number is too small and they appear to be weak.
Myanmar ethnic armed groups
On the one hand, because of Aung San Suu Kyi's "big banner", basically all ethnic minority armed forces in Myanmar have united, which is already a big force in Myanmar.
Myanmar may "change dynasty"
On the other hand, the Myanmar junta is too vegetable. For various reasons, the combat effectiveness of the military forces controlled by the Myanmar military junta is very low.
This has led to the "Burmese civil war" in the past few years, the Burmese government army has been defeated in successive battles, and by April 2024, even the border town of Myawaddy has been lost.
From China's point of view, there is naturally the possibility of a "change of dynasty" within Myanmar.
Myawaddy
In any country, there will be a large number of refugees, and the side that has gained a slight advantage at present is a mixed ethnic minority army. As a result, if there is a refugee problem in Myanmar, it will be many times more complicated than a normal refugee problem.
The second point is that Myanmar is a very important place for China, and other countries want to intervene as well.
For China, if Myanmar becomes a pro-China country, then the mainland will have an outlet to the sea in the direction of Yunnan.
At that time, China's western region can also engage in economic construction, and then sell industrial products from the ports on the Burmese side.
All countries that are hostile to China will find ways to contain China in the Burmese region.
China-Myanmar Railway
At the end of March 2024, U.S. State Department adviser Derek Chaoulay will meet with the National Unity Government of Myanmar, apparently trying to play a role in the Burmese civil war.
In fact, the threat to the United States is not the greatest, but the biggest threat to China is India.
India is a country that has always had ideas about Myanmar and has infiltrated Myanmar a lot.
If the civil war in Myanmar escalates and leads to the disintegration of Burma, India will either support its own strength or expand as it did when it annexed Sikkim.
Indian Army
Therefore, China cannot take the issue of Myanmar lightly, and if it is not careful, the mainland will face the situation of having the first island chain in the east and hostile forces in the direction of Myanmar.
There is a high probability that China will not end up
As for the question of whether China's military exercises on the China-Myanmar border will end in person, there is a high probability that it will not.
Because the only one who can make money forever in a casino is the bookmaker. And if the dealer gambles money, there is also a risk of losing money.
For China, the Myanmar region is there, it borders China directly and is backed by China, the "world's factory".
China-Myanmar cooperation
No matter who comes to power in Myanmar, as long as the new government wants to develop the country, it will inevitably have very deep cooperation with China. With the deepening of cooperation, the new government of Myanmar has gradually become pro-China.
Therefore, China only needs to "be a referee" on one side to make a steady profit, and now it will end up participating in Myanmar's internal affairs, which may make the mainland suffer.
At present, the mainland's military exercises on the China-Myanmar border are, on the one hand, to ensure that no refugees or other suspicious persons will infiltrate them, and on the other hand, to ensure that no third party will intervene.
In the case of Burma, if both the United States and India want to intervene, the mainland must deter these countries.
As long as the United States or India does not intervene, then the victory of either the Burmese junta or the Burmese ethnic armed groups is an acceptable outcome for China.
China-Myanmar diplomacy
In addition, the mainland has the ability to intervene in the situation in Myanmar at any time.
At present, the situation in Myanmar is under control as a whole, but there is also a risk of getting out of control.
Once the situation in Myanmar gets out of control, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which has already made real ammunition, can rush into Myanmar at any time to stabilize the situation.
Of course, the mainland has always not participated in the internal affairs of other countries, so if this happens, the possible situation is that China will use diplomatic channels to get the current de jure legitimate government of Myanmar, the military junta, to ask China for help and invite the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to enter.
Pla
But if that happens, the final winner of the "Myanmar Chicken Contest" is probably the Myanmar military junta, which is a situation that China does not want to see. After all, the Burmese junta is too unpopular.
Resources:
[1] Global Network, "The People's Liberation Army Conducts the Second Round of Live-Fire Exercises in the China-Myanmar Border Area, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Responds"
[2] Global Times, "How does China view the Myanmar junta's loss of control over the border town of Myawaddy last week?"