The U.S. election has not officially begun, but the battle between Trump and Biden has long been white-hot. With the two parties in the United States evenly matched, Britain, France, Germany, and NATO are all making preparations with both hands, because Trump may return to the White House.
U.S. polls show that Biden's approval rating has risen since Obama and Clinton returned to the game. In key swing states, Trump's lead has been narrowed. According to the "winner-takes-all" rule of the US election, whoever wins the electoral vote of the swing state will basically be in the White House.
There are many factors influencing the U.S. election, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Putin may not have expected that Trump, who is still pressuring Ukraine on the front foot, will change his face on the back foot. Trump went so far as to say that Ukraine's survival is important for the United States, but even more important for Europe.
Trump believes Europe needs to act to provide more support for Ukraine.
According to an Associated Press report on April 20, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a bill to "provide more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine." This means that many Republican lawmakers who oppose the bill eventually compromise. The reason for this sudden change has to do with Trump's relenting.
After meeting with Polish President Duda, Trump spoke with Republican lawmakers, and finally got the House of Representatives to pass the outcome Biden wanted. However, Trump's choice between the two has aroused the anger of some Republican lawmakers.
Many Republican conservative lawmakers believe that the strategic focus of the United States should be on resolving the border crisis and US debt, rather than giving up its own interests to help Ukraine. In this case, Trump's confidant, House Speaker Johnson, has become the target of public criticism. Many Republican lawmakers have asked Johnson to submit his resignation, but it is clear that Trump will not do so.
In other words, Trump has backtracked and failed to follow through on "America First" this time. Trump's willingness to concede is likely to be an attempt to woo NATO and the European Union in order to gain more support.
The reason is simple, in the case of the United States and Europe unanimously anti-Russia, if Trump continues to add blockage to Ukraine, it is likely to backfire. NATO members, fearful of becoming a second Ukraine and unwilling to allow Russia to win, will undoubtedly fall in favor of Biden. At that time, Trump will inevitably be targeted, and may even make his opponents hang the name of "collusion with Russia".
For Biden, Trump's compromise is not necessarily a good thing. On the one hand, Democratic lawmakers are of course happy to see the final vote in the House of Representatives. But on the other hand, Mr. Trump's abrupt shift in attitude means that the former president, who rarely compromises, will also make concessions in order to defeat his opponents.
In fact, it can be seen from many details that Biden faces many challenges. Not long ago, Hillary, who had disappeared for a long time, also chose to re-emerge in order to win over American voters for Biden. Clinton praised Biden as "compassionate" and efficient, while belittling Trump.
Like Obama, Hillary Clinton is a household name heavyweight in the United States, with strong influence in American politics and civil society, and many chaebol supporters. Hillary Clinton has always believed that if it weren't for Russia's help to Trump, she would not have missed out on the presidency back then, and it would not have been Trump who entered the White House.
Compared with Biden, Trump, who flips the table at every turn, is indeed not so popular with the American elite. The most typical example is that during his four years in charge of the White House, Trump did not provoke a war, which made American arms dealers helpless and annoyed.
Biden is different, whether it is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict or the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the biggest winners are American arms dealers.
Of course, Trump has a unique advantage, and lower-middle-class whites in the United States are loyal supporters of Trump. Unlike four years ago, Trump's approval rating among Arab voters has risen significantly.
Whether Biden can expand his advantage among Arab-American, Hispanic and African-American voters will affect the final outcome of this contest.
There is no doubt that both Trump and Biden will pull out all the stops to get into the White House. The situation is complicated at the moment, and it is really unknown who will win until the last minute. Ukraine definitely wants to see Biden win, and Russia prefers Trump to win. It's going to be a-for-tat battle.
The real show should be yet to come, so you might as well wait patiently.