On April 2, the PLA's Southern Theater announced a live-fire air defense exercise on the Chinese side of the China-Myanmar border, and shortly after, U.S. State Department advisers visited senior officials of Burma's National Unity Government, a politician from Aung San Suu Kyi's forces. Obviously, on the eve of a key change in the situation in Myanmar, China and the United States staged another secret wrestling.
Myanmar became independent in 1948, a year before the founding of the People's Republic of China, but the country has hardly been at peace in the 76 years since independence. The focus of the internal struggle in Myanmar is the contradiction between the democratically elected civilian government and the military on the one hand, and the contradiction between the military junta and the local ethnic armed forces on the other.
Obama, Aung San Suu Kyi and Hillary Clinton are pictured talking
The bonds of geography and history
The reason why Myanmar is so chaotic is mainly due to the two dimensions of geography and history. Geographically, Myanmar is located on the edge of China and India, and is an important plate connecting Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Historically, in order to accelerate the pace of expansion, the invading Japanese army had planned to invade Burma from China, and then invade British India, in order to thwart the Japanese army's plan, the Chinese expeditionary force sent troops to Burma, and stopped the Japanese army in the tropical jungle of Burma, paying huge casualties.
After the independence of Myanmar, the father of the country, General Aung San was assassinated, and since then the political situation has fallen into a group of dragons without a leader, although the civilian government has been in power for a short time, but the military is too powerful, and Myanmar has no democratic historical tradition, basically to see who has more guns, who has more people, who has the final say.
Pictured is General Aung San
Myanmar had a brief dawn of democracy in 2015. In November of that year, Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD won the general election, but because her husband was British, Aung San Suu Kyi could only get a position as state counsellor, and the democratically elected government had no real power at all, and the real power was in the hands of the military. Finally, the military, tired of being behind the scenes, issued a state of emergency in 2021, forcibly dissolved the democratically elected government, and imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi.
Truth be told, this is the norm in Burmese politics – a power struggle backed by guns. The coup d'état carried out by the military has shattered the dreams of ordinary Burmese once again, especially the armed forces of ethnic minorities in the north, who have taken up guns and fought with the military. Therefore, it can be said that the civil war in Myanmar is the result of two dimensions, geopolitical and historical, and will not end in a short time.
The reason why this civil war is so serious may be related to China's anti-telecom fraud some time ago and the destruction of some telecommunications fraud parks in Myanmar. According to credible sources, the banks are directly or indirectly linked to the Myanmar military. As a result, the Burmese army was red-eyed, on the one hand, it was angry with the local ethnic armed forces, and on the other hand, it was angry with China.
Pictured is Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
How the U.S. intervened in Burma
It is also strange to say that during the period when the Burmese military was in power, the United States basically did not have any superficial dealings with it, and after the NLD led by Aung San Suu Kyi came to power, the relationship between the United States and the democratically elected government of Myanmar was not very good, and even accused the democratically elected government of corruption, human rights violations, and genocide. The question is, what kind of Burma does the United States want? Obviously, the more chaotic the better, the better.
Originally, the United States did not like the Burmese military, and Aung San Suu Kyi would inevitably need to use all relatively tough means to unite various forces in Myanmar, but the United States said that it was a violation of human rights and genocide. That means that Aung San Suu Kyi can't do Myanmar well, just keep it as it is.
Now that the military is fighting a civil war with local ethnic forces, the United States is thinking of Aung San Suu Kyi again, and letting her forces go out of the mountains to exert influence again, this is a typical rhythm to be messed up.
The picture shows the Burmese government army
The Burmese army has a total of 600,000 troops, and it is easy to fight the regional ethnic armed forces, but the local ethnic armed forces are basically mountainous, easy to defend and difficult to attack, and tanks, armored vehicles, and heavy artillery are basically useless, and can only be engaged in close combat with infantry and mortars.
The United States must also be very aware of the domestic political ecology of Myanmar, so it sent a special adviser to the State Department to visit Myanmar, perhaps in the hope of a "separation" or collapse within the Myanmar military, so that they would accept Aung San Suu Kyi's forces to come to power. Because, after a few years, the United States believes that Aung San Suu Kyi is still a little better than the military. However, with the strength of Aung San Suu Kyi's forces, there is little to be done in Myanmar at present.
China's presence in Myanmar
In fact, China has been in Burma for a long time, and the way China has laid out it is to maintain contact with the successive Burmese governments, whether you are a military junta or a democratically elected government, they are all my friendly neighbors, and we must develop friendly relations; on the other hand, China also has close relations with some ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar, and many of these ethnic minority areas are using mobile phone signals provided by China's telecommunications department.
The Myanmar military has also procured Chinese weapons and equipment. We know that Myanmar is a war-torn and poor country for many years, and there is no extra money to buy expensive weapons and equipment from the West, Myanmar has always bought Soviet/Russian arms, but the Soviet/Russian arms have many failures and need frequent technical support, which is another large amount of money.
Therefore, the Myanmar military is also more willing to purchase Chinese arms, for example, the Myanmar military has purchased China's Type 63 amphibious tanks, "Thunder" fighter jets and J-7 fighters. The repair and maintenance of these Chinese-made weapons and equipment can also serve as a lever for China to exert political influence over the Myanmar military
The picture shows China's then-Defense Minister Wei Fenghe meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi
In this civil war in Burma, it is obvious that the Burmese military is pressing the armed forces of ethnic minorities in the north, and all the shells have hit the Sino-Burmese border, and fighter planes have also flown to the border to drop bombs. So, where does the Burmese military's money come from? In the past, the Burmese army has not ruled out launching a large-scale offensive for several months in a row. It is likely that the funds for the civil war were provided by the US intelligence agencies, because the US wanted to push up the flames of the civil war in Burma, and then cut off the military's financial resources, and came out to mediate, so that Aung San Suu Kyi would be a "puppet" in the mountains, so as to be a good old man in front of the world. Isn't this what the United States has always done?
The picture shows the Myanmar Air Force fleet
In fact, the wishful thinking of the United States and China have already guessed it. The live-fire exercises in the southern theater must not only deter the Burmese military, but also the United States, because if the Burmese army really eliminated some ethnic minority forces, they would be emboldened and perhaps start a larger civil war.
In short, the situation in Myanmar's civil war is very complex, and the military is strong, but it may be backed by external forces, and Aung San Suu Kyi's forces may once again act as a "puppet" of the military government. But in any case, China needs to deal with such a chaotic country, not only to prevent the flames of war from reaching China's borders, but also to prevent the United States from propping up an extreme anti-China proxy in Burma.
The picture shows the armed forces of ethnic minorities in Myanmar
Part of the content in the article Source: Ministry of National Defense: Highly concerned about the situation in northern Myanmar and always on high alert China News Network