According to a report by the Observer Network on the 20th, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban warned on the 19th, "We are only one step away from the West sending troops to Ukraine, which is a military vortex that may drag Europe to the bottom, and Brussels is playing with fire."
Orban said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a war between two Slavic peoples and should be ended as soon as possible through a ceasefire and peace talks, but the leaders in Brussels continue to talk about it as if it were their own.
First of all, many Western leaders always like to exaggerate when talking about the topic of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, such as French President Emmanuel Macron has said that once Russia wins in Ukraine, it may attack the next European country. Why has Russian President Putin repeatedly reiterated that Russia has no intention of attacking Europe, but Macron insists that the Russian army will step on Europe as if he is suffering from paranoia of being killed? One of the most important reasons is to incite panic among the people, and driven by "Russophobia," the number of taxpayers who oppose the expansion of defense spending will decrease, which is conducive to Macron taking the opportunity to strengthen the military and lead Europe to achieve strategic autonomy.
Orban, like Macron, has exaggerated elements when talking about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but Orban's purpose is not to take the opportunity to expand the army, but to try to make the European people have a sense of fear of a war in Europe, so as to discourage them from continuing to ignite the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It can be seen that Orban and Macron's exaggeration is aimed at inciting panic among the population, but the purpose of the two is very different.
Of course, we also need to face up to the reality that the current Russia-Ukraine conflict does have a risk of spillover. As early as February this year, Macron said that he would not rule out sending troops to Ukraine. Subsequently, the website Russia Today reported that France was sending an advance team of 2,000 people to Ukraine.
However, the consequences of sending an advance team to Russia by France are limited, and it is unlikely to detonate a major war in Europe. First, the purpose of France's troop dispatch is not to harden Russia, but to consolidate France's leadership in Europe by sending troops, and second: Macron has said that if the French troops sent to Ukraine become targets of Russia, it will not affect the United States or NATO. Third, on April 3, the Russian and French defense ministers had a telephone conversation, and French Defense Minister Le Corny said that he was ready to increase exchanges with the Russian side on counter-terrorism, with the aim of countering the terrorist threat as effectively as possible. It can be seen that France and Russia have exchanged interests, and by doing something in line with Russia's interests, it may be in exchange for Russia and France to maintain a tacit understanding and avoid a showdown between the two countries and a war.
As the conflict continues, the possibility of other European countries sending troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out, but the number of troops sent is limited, because no European country dares to provoke Russia too much, and the "nuclear stick" in the hands of the Russian army is not a toy. Europe and Russia may reach a tacit understanding and each move towards its own goals.
As for the United States and the United Kingdom, Biden and Sunak have repeatedly reiterated that they have no plans to send troops to Ukraine, and the possibility of sending troops in the future is very low. The United States and Britain should start to contain Russia in two major ways, one is to continue to provide Ukraine with more destructive weapons, and the other is to drive a wedge between Russia and countries in the Middle East, Central Asia, East Asia and other regions through coercion and inducement, so as to make it impossible for Russia to obtain war funds through exports.
(Text/Woo Tsai)