This week's securities market news is good and bearish, but it seems that the negative news has a greater impact on A-shares, which is related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut hitting the global stock market, as well as technology stocks are also bearish, which is indeed very unfavorable to the opening of A-shares tomorrow.
The negative news will hit the trend of A-shares tomorrow, but the power of good news is also not small, involving stock commission expense rates and five capital market cooperation measures with Hong Kong, etc., will bring long-term benefits to A-shares; therefore, A-shares will face the impact of good and bad on the weekend, how will A-shares go tomorrow?
News 1: The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been lowered again
On Friday, the president of the Chicago Fed said that progress in reducing inflation has stalled, and it is necessary to keep interest rates unchanged in order to observe the economic development from the data.
Comment: It means that the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are further reduced, which constitutes negative news for the global capital market; you must know that if the Fed does not cut interest rates, the world's hot money will enter the beautiful country, resulting in a big move of hot money, which is directly negative for the capital markets of other countries, perhaps this is the main reason for the recent decline in the global stock market.
News 2: Cut the stock commission expense rate
Over the weekend, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the Regulations on the Administration of Securities Transaction Costs of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds, which will be officially implemented from July 1, 2024.
Comment: The reduction of the relevant commission expense rate is a big negative, which is beneficial to relevant institutions and individual investors, saves transaction costs, and adds more fresh blood injection to the A-share capital market.
News 3: Five co-operation measures for Hong Kong
The CSRC issued the "Several Opinions" to mention five capital market cooperation measures in Hong Kong, involving Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong ETFs, supporting RMB stock trading, and supporting the listing of leading enterprises in Hong Kong.
Comment: With the implementation of the five cooperation measures between Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, it will inevitably be positive for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, improve the financial status of the stock markets of the two places, and better link the capital flows between the two places, so as to bring more foreign investment to A-shares and benefit A-shares for a long time.
How will A-shares open tomorrow?
The above has an in-depth understanding of the three important news and comments of the weekend, and the following will make a bold prediction of the trend of A-shares after the opening of tomorrow.
It is predicted that tomorrow's A-share collective slightly lower opening probability is large, but after the low opening, the long and short will be gamed, the plate will enter the differentiation, the heavyweight stocks will come out to protect the disk, and the technology stocks will become the hardest hit area;
It means that the trend of A-shares tomorrow will not be too optimistic, the index will remain volatile, and individual stocks will continue to fall, which is affected by the following two factors.
Factor 1: After the failure of the A-share rush to 3100 points this week, the bulls will not give up on rushing up again, and if they want to rush to 3100 points again, they will inevitably be inseparable from the support of heavyweight stocks, and they will inevitably pull large-cap stocks to protect the disk again.
Factor 2: Affected by the collapse of U.S. stocks on Friday, technology stocks have brought a big bearish, and will bring trauma to technology stocks tomorrow. Combined with the impact of weekend news, the good is long-term, and it is difficult to achieve results in the short term, which will not stimulate the trend of A-shares tomorrow.
To sum up, in the face of the impact of the three major news over the weekend, perhaps the negative news will be greater for the opening trend of tomorrow's A-shares, so the market of tomorrow's A-shares is not optimistic, and the general decline is inevitable, and the probability will be staged again to "protect the index, drop individual stocks" market, so we should look at the market rationally tomorrow.