The yen depreciated, Chinese went to Japan to buy houses with cash, and some carried two large suitcases to sweep the goods

Since April 10, the yen exchange rate in the New York foreign exchange market has fallen sharply, once depreciating to 154.33 yen per dollar. The yen's exchange rate against the renminbi has also recently hit a new low in recent years. As of 12 o'clock on the 20th, 100 yen can be exchanged for 4.7 yuan.

According to a report by Zhongxin Jingwei on April 20, "Japan's LV stores are all Chinese, counting all kinds of discounts, a 20,000 bag can be cheaper by three or four thousand yuan." Ula (pseudonym), who recently traveled to Kyoto and other places in Japan, observed that under the depreciation of the yen, many luxury goods are nearly 10%-50% cheaper to buy in Japan than in China.

Hisoka (not his real name), who works for a large multinational conglomerate in Yokohama, Japan, has noticed that the number of foreign tourists coming to Japan has increased significantly, but many people around him have given up on their plans to travel abroad during the holidays.

The average daily room rate for hotels in Japan was about 20,986 yen ($136) in March, the highest since August 1997 and up nearly 20 percent from a year earlier, according to real estate data service CoStar. The average occupancy rate of hotels also increased to 78%. The recent weakening of the yen and the cherry blossom season have attracted a large number of tourists, with a record 3.1 million visitors to Japan last month.

"Regarding the duration of the yen's depreciation, market expectations suggest that the yen may continue to depreciate in the near term due to monetary policy differences between Japan and other major economies, especially the United States. Pan Ruowei, president of the Beijing General Chamber of Commerce in Japan, said.

There are Chinese people who buy houses with cash

There are also tourists who carry 2 28-inch suitcases to sweep the goods

According to a report by Zhongxin Jingwei on April 20, Jiang Peng (pseudonym), who works in Osaka, has a lot of RMB deposits in his hands, and in the near future, he plans to take advantage of the sharp depreciation of the yen to exchange his yuan for yen and buy a house in the suburbs of Osaka for investment.

The depreciation of the yen has also attracted a large number of international investors to the Japanese property market. Jiang Peng observed that Japan's housing prices have risen sharply in the past two years, with Tokyo rising by 30% and Osaka by 15%. "A house close to the subway is equivalent to about 2.6 million yuan, and the rent-to-sale ratio can reach 8%, but after deducting property tax, management fees and maintenance fees, it may only be about 5%. ”

Jiang Peng's intermediary also mentioned to him that many foreign investors favor Japanese homestay investment, and opening a homestay can apply for the operator's Japanese high-talent visa, and after three years, you can apply for permanent residence in Japan.

A recent research report by Soochow Securities pointed out that real estate prices in Japan's three major metropolitan areas have already entered an upward channel. The average home price in the Tokyo metropolitan area has increased by 75.9% over the past 10 years, with the cumulative increase doubling to an annualized increase of 7.2% in the metropolitan area, and the annualized growth rate of 4.1% and 4.0% in Saitama and Chiba prefectures in the non-core areas, both outperforming Japan's CPI.

Xue Pingyuan, president of the Japanese Federation of Overseas Chinese Women, pointed out that the current housing prices in Japan have risen a lot, and they have returned to the peak of the bubble in the 90s. People around me who originally wanted to buy a house also began to hesitate.

"Nowadays, there are many overseas people who come to Japan to buy houses, but Japanese people can't afford to buy houses, and housing prices are very high in some places. Xue Pingyuan revealed that houses in some high-end residential areas in Tokyo that used to cost 100 million yen are now sold for about 250 million yen.

Pan Ruowei, president of Japan's Beijing Chamber of Commerce, also noticed that some Chinese came to buy houses with cash, and many targeted the buildings in the Tokyo Olympic Village. After the Olympic Village was converted into a residential building, it has become a popular choice for investors and home buyers due to its strategic location and complete supporting facilities. As a result, some successful bidders may make a higher profit when they change hands and sell.

In addition, on social media, many Chinese netizens also shared their strategies for going to Japan to sweep goods.

Miao Miao, who just traveled to Japan in March this year, was addicted to "sweeping goods". "I felt that it was cheap to buy anything, and the more I bought, the more I felt that I was earning, so I brought two 28-inch suitcases with me, thinking that it was about the same, and then I bought two suitcases in Japan. ”

Ula, who recently traveled to Kyoto and other places in Japan, also observed that the local LV stores are all Chinese, and counting various discounts, a 20,000 bag can be cheaper for three or four thousand yuan. According to the official website of Japan's LV, the price of the carryall small is 379,500 yen, or about 17,767 yuan, and the price on the official website of China is 20,600 yuan in the same period.

Ula bought a mikimoto necklace at the Isetan mall in Kyoto, which is about 7,500 yuan, which is 3,000 yuan cheaper than in China. When I went for a tax refund near the closing time of the mall, there were about 30 Chinese in front of me.

College student Zhinan (pseudonym) recently went to Japan with his friends to play, and helped his friends buy the popular Chiikawa, and bought a small doll of more than 120 yuan in China at the original price in Japan for only 60 yuan. Zhinan said that many Chiikawa Chinese enthusiasts see Chiikawa directly packed in Japanese stores, especially limited models that need to be lucky.

Banks' yen exchange business increased

Experts remind: the risk is high, and the operation should be cautious

According to a CCTV Finance report on April 18, with the decline in the yen exchange rate, the business volume of banks to exchange yen has increased.

The reporter visited a number of banks in Beijing and found that with the continuous decline of the yen exchange rate, the number of customers who came to the bank to exchange yen has increased recently. Ms. Gao from Beijing noticed that the yen exchange rate was weakening in early April this year, and went to the bank to exchange yen once. In the past few days, she found that the yen exchange rate had dropped again, so she went to the bank to exchange 200,000 yen again.

Liu Zhao, a staff member of the Beijing branch of China Guangfa Bank: Since mid-March this year, 4.9 yuan has been exchanged for 100 yen, and now 4.7 yuan can be exchanged for 100 yen. Consumers feel that exchanging yen is relatively affordable recently, and the number of customers exchanging yen on our side is also increasing.

Bank staff told reporters that with the "May Day" holiday approaching, the exchange volume of customers has also increased recently.

Zhu Bao, Vice President of the Business Office of ICBC Beijing International Business Service Area Sub-branch: Our yen exchange volume last month was about 200,000 yen, and so far this month is about 3 million yen. At present, the main purpose of our customers' exchange of yen is still mainly for personal travel.

What are the reasons for the recent depreciation of the yen, what is the future trend, and is it appropriate to hoard a large amount of yen at this time?

According to experts, the most direct reason for the current decline in the yen exchange rate is the interest rate differential between the dollar and the yen. On the one hand, the weakening of Fed rate cut expectations triggered a stronger dollar, and on the other hand, the Japanese government continued to maintain loose liquidity, and market expectations for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy pivot were disappointed, triggering another sell-off in the yen.

Xuan Wei, Chief Strategy Analyst of ChinaAMC: In particular, the weekly rise in the US dollar index last week has hit a high since November last year, which has intensified the pressure on the depreciation of the yen. Although the yen has weakened significantly recently, there has been no substantial action to stop the depreciation in Japan, which has accelerated the pace of depreciation against the dollar.

The reporter observed that recently, the yen has continued to depreciate, and some investors plan to hoard more yen. Experts suggest that in the global foreign exchange market, the factors affecting foreign exchange trends are relatively complex, and the foreign exchange market is also volatile. In this regard, consumers need to fully consider their own acceptance of market volatility risks and potential returns when settling and selling foreign exchange, and operate cautiously.

Xuan Wei, Chief Strategy Analyst of China AMC Fund: For investors who invest in foreign exchange, they need to have a certain degree of professionalism and analytical ability, and they must maintain a certain degree of calmness and caution in their investment participation in the foreign exchange market.

Tan Yaling, President of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute: From historical experience, there are only a few people who win by investing in yen, and more people think about the exchange rate level, but they ignore the issue of interest rates. It may be reasonable to exchange yen against yen, but when you get the yen, there is basically no rate of return while waiting for the yen to appreciate, which is a more complex investment strategy and observation of investment dynamics.

Japan March Unexpected Drop

However, the Bank of Japan may still have to grit its teeth and raise interest rates

According to the Financial Associated Press, Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications released data on Friday showing that Japan's CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in March, slightly lower than economists' median forecast of 2.8% and the previous value of 2.8%.

Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 2.6% year-on-year in March, which was lower than the previous 2.8% increase but in line with economists' median forecast of 2.6%. Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) rose 2.9% year-on-year in March, below economists' expectations of 3% and well below the previous reading of 3.2%.

Among them, non-fresh food prices rose 4.6% year-on-year, slowing from the 5.3% increase in February, hotel room rates rose 27.7%, down from the previous month's increase of 33.3%, utility bills fell 1.7% year-on-year, and natural gas prices fell 7.1%.

General services, which are relatively sensitive to rising labor costs, including restaurants and hotel rooms, rose 2.8 percent, down from a 2.9 percent increase in February.

Kanako Nakamura, an economist at the Daiwa Research Institute, said that although the data was lower than expected, it did not indicate that the momentum of raising wages and prices in Japan's service sector was weakened, "The inflation rate in the service sector is still above 2%, and the overall trend has not changed." ”

Looking ahead, she said, "companies will hardly be able to avoid raising prices" leading to inflation as companies across all sectors in Japan announce wage increases, and "the upside risks to inflation outweigh the downside risks," combined with high commodity and energy prices.

Although two years have passed since Japan's core inflation rate first exceeded the BOJ's 2% target, until March this year, the BOJ stuck to a negative interest rate policy and stressed the need for rising wages to drive inflation.

Even after the lifting of negative interest rates in March, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda insisted on sending easing signals, emphasizing that "the easing environment will continue" and trying to avoid the market misunderstanding that the Bank of Japan will launch a series of monetary tightening.

However, the sharp depreciation of the yen this week has clearly caught the Bank of Japan by some surprise. In the Tokyo market this week, the yen has fallen to nearly 155 yen against the dollar from 147 yen per dollar about a month ago. Some analysts believe that the decline is at odds with Japan's economic fundamentals, in part because of the panic caused by the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran.

On Thursday local time, Kazuo Ueda said in Washington that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to curb inflation caused by a weaker yen as concerns about the rapid depreciation of the yen in Japan intensify.

"If a weaker yen leads to higher inflation and starts to have a significant impact on the economy, the Bank of Japan is likely to take monetary policy action," he said. ”

Editor|Cheng Peng, Du Bo

Proofreading|Wang Yuelong

Cover image source: CCTV financial video screenshot

The daily economic news is synthesized from CCTV Finance and Economics, China-Singapore Jingwei (Reporter: Li Ziman, Luo Kun)

National Business Daily