On April 17, the China Passenger Association released sales data, showing that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China has reached 50.39%. In the past March, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu predicted at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 50% or higher in the next three months, and the reality is that the arrival of this data only took more than 20 days, Wang Chuanfu showed everyone a technology flow of "cautious optimism".
According to past data, from 2005 to 2015, it took 10 years for China's new energy vehicles to penetrate 1%, from 2016 to 2019, the penetration rate increased to 5% in three years, and from 2020 to 2024 in more than four years, the bi-weekly penetration rate increased to 50%. In 2020, Continental set a target of 50% penetration by 2035, a goal that has been achieved 10 years ahead of schedule thanks to the unremitting efforts of China's new energy vehicle companies.
Judging from the terminal sales of joint venture fuel vehicles in March, only FAW Toyota entered the top 10 sales of the Toyota brand, ranking ninth, down 7.2% year-on-year, while GAC Toyota, GAC Honda, Dongfeng Honda and Dongfeng Nissan all missed the top 10 on the list.
In the current automobile market, the Korean and French systems have lost their glory as early as a few years ago, and even some joint venture fuel brands have withdrawn from the Chinese market. In addition, the sharp decline in retail sales has also led to a wave of mass store closures of joint venture fuel vehicle brands, which has led to a large number of consumer disputes and rights protection.
The decline in sales has also led to a sharp plunge in the price of used fuel cars, and the value retention rate, which was once the pride of Japanese cars, has also dropped significantly. According to the "2023 China Automobile Retention Rate Report" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association and Jingzhen Valuation, the second-hand car market and model retention rate will show a downward trend as a whole in 2023, among which fuel vehicles will decline significantly, and new energy vehicles will be relatively stable.
Wang Chuanfu also pointed out at the forum of 100 that the penetration rate of new energy is more than 50%, indicating that new energy vehicles will occupy a dominant position in the market, reflecting the strong development momentum and market acceptance of China's new energy vehicle industry. With the new energy vehicles in power, quietness, intelligence and other aspects of the traditional fuel vehicles surpass, especially plug-in hybrid models, can use both electricity and oil, both without range anxiety but also greatly improve the economy of the car, coupled with BYD car with "the same price of oil and electricity", "electricity is lower than oil" to take the lead in breaking through the price barrier, further encouraging consumers to choose new energy vehicles.
With the rapid increase in sales and the full popularization of charging piles and other facilities, consumers have a personal experience of the performance, experience, and cost of new energy vehicles, which has greatly changed the awareness and acceptance of consumers, and quickly realized the reversal of new energy vehicles to traditional fuel vehicles, and it is a foregone conclusion that new energy vehicles will replace fuel.
Conclusion:
When Wang Chuanfu predicted at the forum of the 100-person meeting that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles would reach 50% or higher in three months, it was estimated that many people felt incredible, because the penetration rate at that time was only 32.8%. In more than 20 days, it has reached more than 50%, which fully proves Wang Chuanfu's keen observation of the entire new energy industry. We believe that in 2024, with the domestic sales of new energy vehicles breaking through history again, coupled with the overseas layout, China's new energy vehicle sales led by BYD will reach a new high.