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In the pig market, into April, pig prices fell first and then rose, after the Qingming holiday, pig prices began to be under pressure, the price entered the stage of weak trend, however, the decline in pig prices is relatively limited, especially, as the end of the month approaches, pig prices "fall less and less", the trend of the market to stop falling is gradually emerging, then, a new round of inflection point is coming? What is the prospect of pig prices?
According to the latest data feedback analysis, on April 20, the average price of the outer ternary lean pig slaughter was 14.92 yuan / kg, down 0.01 yuan from yesterday, the pig price continued to fall trend, the pig price fell, the market showed a downward trend for 12 consecutive days, however, the cumulative decline was only 0.33 yuan, down 2.17% in 12 days, the market "fell to the bottom" The trend is more prominent, especially, in the last two days, the market is stable The situation has gradually emerged, and the market is facing long and short pressure!
Bearish factors:
First, the weight differentiation of the stage pig herd, affected by the early pressure fence and the second breeding, the level of large pig inventory in the market is sufficient, the price difference between the breeding end of the standard pig and the fat pig is narrow, and the price inversion phenomenon occurs in some areas, and the uncertainty risk of the fat pig pressure fence has increased sharply, and the large pig subscription at the breeding end is relatively positive;
Second, consumption support is relatively weak. At present, the terminal market is deserted, the downstream traders have poor replenishment demand, the terminal traders are still mainly shrinking the volume and supporting the price, the wholesale market is not smooth in the purchase and sales of white strips, the pressure of surplus goods in many markets still exists, the new orders of slaughtering enterprises are small, the operating rate is low, and the operating rate of sample slaughtering enterprises is 27. About 13%, the mentality of reducing the amount of pigs is strong!
Third, the prospect of fat pigs is under pressure, the market lacks confidence, in particular, the breeding end is worried about the risk of "slaughtering cattle" in the future, and the phased entry is more cautious, the pressure of the second breeding diversion of pigs is reduced, and the smoothness of procurement of slaughtering enterprises is improved;
Tailwinds:
On the one hand, the breeding end of the big pig to sell pigs, small and medium-sized performance pressure bar reluctance to sell stronger, in particular, the stage feed cost is low, the risk of standard pig pressure is weak, the market is optimistic about the prospect of pig prices in the middle and late stages, the price mentality still exists, retail investors and group pig enterprises to sell pig mentality weakened, the sentiment of price reluctance to sell has become stronger;
On the other hand, the end of the month is approaching, and consumption is about to usher in a "small spring". Supported by the May Day holiday, the market has a strong bullish mentality, the catering and tourism industries may improve significantly, the downstream market is mainly based on the purchase and sale of fresh products, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are expected to increase, and the enthusiasm for purchasing live pigs may improve!
However, as the festival approaches, under the guidance of emotions, pig prices may rise slightly or slightly!
However, from a rational point of view, due to the high domestic frozen pork inventory, the risk of large pigs in the breeding end is greater, the pre-holiday pig subscription mentality is still strong, the pressure on the supply of pigs still exists, it is expected that at the end of the month after the pig price briefly rose, with the slaughterhouse before the festival short stocking, pig prices or will weaken again, however, due to the holiday consumption support still exists, during the May Day holiday, pig prices to weak and stable shocks, after the holiday with the weakening of consumption support, the risk of large pigs to press the fence further increases, pig prices or a trend of downward trend, in May, pig price prospects are poor, prices or will be volatile lower, after the second half of the year, the domestic pig price quotation or will fall back to 14.5 yuan/ kg up and down!
12 days down 2.17%, pig prices "fall less and less", the inflection point is coming?