In fact, this is completely relying on a certain team of funds to protect the heavy stocks, covering up the true performance of individual stocks, in fact, the trend of the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) truly reflects the current situation of the market. Don't be fooled by the illusion of the Shanghai Index, to be honest, even if the Shanghai Index stands at 3100 points, if the Shenzhen Index and the Growth Enterprise Market do not rebound, this breakthrough is still meaningless.
Holding above the 3,000 level seems to send a strong bullish signal to investors. But if it can't go down, it's not a reason to go up. It's more of a concussive rhythm. A certain team's funds can protect the disk, but the market wants to rise, and in order to break through the important pressure level, large funds must form a certain joint force, which cannot be achieved by relying on a team's funds alone. Foreign capital and domestic retail investors are indispensable. It's a pity that domestic capital has been desperately smashing the market, occasionally a day of net inflow, how can there be enough momentum to lead the market upward, and foreign capital has been flowing out recently, originally with the help of foreign capital, the outflow of domestic capital is not enough to affect the rise of the market, but now foreign capital is also sharply shorting, not to mention domestic capital, institutional funds are net outflows, is it impossible to let retail investors rush forward. Institutional funds are dominated by outflows, and the market can only fall. Occasionally, a one-day inflow brings about a rise in the market, which is not sustainable, but more of a set of rhythms. The rise of the market, like the multi-directional short side to open artillery, a multi-party artillery structure is the formation of an offensive situation after the slow flow of institutional funds, now the net outflow of large funds, how to fire to the short side, it is good to maintain the shock.
1. Yesterday, we repeatedly reminded that today is a time window under the superposition of long and short profits:
First, today is the 419 Curse Day, don't ask why, anyway, on this day, the market seems to be following the evil, and the probability of falling is very high. There are other curses in the A-share market, such as the curse of the China Merchants Securities Strategy Club, which is well known, and every day there is a great probability that the market will fall sharply. Some people think that this is the category of metaphysics. In fact, this is also very easy to explain, originally in some fixed time, the market happened to fall two or three times, and then after the media interpreted, and then on this date, everyone had a shadow psychologically, and the outflow of funds produced a resonance effect, unconsciously forming the so-called "curse".
Second, today is the delivery day of stock index futures, which is well understood by everyone.
These two time windows are superimposed, and we repeatedly warn of risks. Of course, this is not to say that the market will necessarily fall today. But making an investment is a matter of probability in itself. There is no 100% answer at any time. Obviously, from the perspective of historical trends, in an important time window, the probability of falling is much greater than the probability of rising, so what to do is clear, of course, you have to rush forward, then you can only lose money.
Third, to add insult to injury, another black sky flew out today. An attack was launched on Iran in the early hours of Friday local time, and there was even news that Iran's nuclear facilities had been destroyed. The entire Asia-Pacific market has been greatly affected, and as a result, the resource sector represented by oil has risen sharply.
Although A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and South Korean stock markets have finally bottomed out and rebounded, the short-term seems to be less worried, and many people think it's time to breathe a sigh of relief. In fact, in my opinion, this short-term change does not mean much of a problem, and it does not prove that the global market has come out of the influence of the situation in the Middle East, because no one can predict how the situation in the Middle East will develop next, in case Iran starts to retaliate again. It's endless, and the impact is huge. The best outcome is that the two sides shake hands and make peace, which can only be said to eliminate the bad expectations of the world, and the absence of bad things does not mean that there are good things. This is clear to everyone.
We put aside the influence of the periphery for the time being, as far as the A-share itself is concerned, it is also very weak, a certain team of funds continue to protect the disk, but the institutions staggered never buy it. Foreign capital has also been affected by the depreciation of the exchange rate, and there has been a continuous net outflow in the short term. On the news side, there is a constant blow, such as foreign capital is optimistic about A-shares, but in fact, there is a continuous net outflow.
There are several reasons for our lack of confidence in the short-term market:
First, there is no timetable for when the US dollar will cut interest rates, the exchange rate as a whole is fluctuating at a high level, and foreign capital continues to flow out
Second, geopolitical conflicts are highly variable and risk aversion is on the rise
Third, domestic capital continues to short, after smashing the market on Monday and Tuesday, it bottomed out on Wednesday, and basically all of it flowed out on Thursday and Friday.
Fourth, the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market are very weak, and small-cap micro-cap stocks will be under greater pressure next.
2. After hitting the annual line and 3100 points upwards on Thursday, can the market clash upwards again next week:
First of all, I think that if everyone blindly stares at the Shanghai Index does not make much sense, the Shanghai Index is obviously kidnapped by the weight, and it is meaningless to maintain the index by pulling the weight, if the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market can not be strengthened, the market has no money-making effect, there is no money-making effect, and the Shanghai Index alone will still come down suddenly, and it is necessary to see that the market has formed a certain sustainable money-making effect, and such a breakthrough is meaningful.
Secondly, everyone believes that as long as the Shanghai Index is strong, it will move the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market to strengthen, this idea is unrealistic, only the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index will strengthen first, stabilize and rebound first, and the market will have the confidence to do long. In this way, the staggered will be willing to enter the market, and the weight will pull the index in the short term, and even if the subject matter falls, it will not form fear.
Finally, now that institutional funds are constantly flowing out, the short-term occasionally forms a joint force to break through and fall, which is meaningless.
On the whole, I believe that the index will continue to fall downward next week, and continue to be cautious in operation.
In the medium term, we have firm confidence in holding shares, and the short-term upward time is not ripe, easy to fall and difficult to rise, don't think that the new "national nine" will drive the index into a bull market immediately.
Recently, we have seen the continuous increase in policies, and we must be clear that the stricter the regulation, the adverse impact on the short-term market, because the regulation is mainly aimed at institutions. Inevitably there will be resistance. Just like the new "National Nine Articles" for dividends and delisting, which led to a sharp drop in the market, the village came forward and said that according to the current standards, only 30 will meet the delisting next year, you think it is very strict, but the result is only 30. It's hard to believe that this is a temporary compromise between the system and the market. Think about it.
If there is no drama next week, the position will be strictly controlled in operation, and the operation will be operated if it falls sharply, and it will not move if it rises and falls slightly.
On Friday night, a lot of good news was released, 1. The China Securities Regulatory Commission: reduce the commission rate of fund stock transactions and reduce the upper limit of the distribution ratio of fund managers' securities trading commissions. It is a good thing for the fund, saving some transaction costs, the purpose is to improve the activity of the market, it is difficult to say how much is good, more positive.
2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued five measures for capital market cooperation in Hong Kong: supporting industry leaders to list in Hong Kong
It is not easy to list on A-shares, and it is encouraged to list in Hong Kong to reduce the pressure on A-shares.
3. CITIC Securities: Received the "Prior Notice of Administrative Punishment" from the China Securities Regulatory Commission
Recently, many brokerages have been punished, and they can only stop at the point. It is really difficult for the brokerage sector to rise, it can only fall more and rise, and when the restructuring begins to land, the brokerage will go up again.
4. The regulator ordered HHLR, a subsidiary of Hillhouse, to repurchase the shares of LONGi Green Energy
It is getting stricter and stricter, giving investors confidence.