Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released China's economic data for the first quarter of 2024, in which the total retail sales of consumer goods 120327 billion yuan, an increase of 4.7%.
According to the Economic Observer, for the consumption data in the first quarter, Guan Qingyou, president of the Institute of Financial Research, believes that the main contradiction in the current consumption field is that there is no money to consume.
Guan Qingyou said
In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods 120327 billion yuan, an increase of 4.7 percent. We can see that on the one hand, the rapid consumption of catering and tourism, on the other hand, the overall consumption recovery is not as strong as imagined, and the main contradiction in the consumption field is that there is no money to consume, or whether it reflects that everyone's expectations for income have not fundamentally improved, which is a matter of confidence.
When talking about a deeper level of problem analysis, Guan Qingyou said
Behind the consumption problem is the demand problem, and behind the demand problem is the problem of structural reform. In his view, structural reform is also the most important focus of China's economy in the future to achieve great improvement in the economic structure while upgrading its industry. If we only talk about consumption and not about structural reforms, it is difficult for us to really kick-start demand.
Stimulate consumption
I remember that since last year, because of weak consumption, a series of policies and measures to stimulate consumption have been introduced from the state to the local level, and until now, some places are still seizing every opportunity to stimulate consumption.
From the beginning of the introduction of policy measures to stimulate consumption, it has attracted the attention and discussion of netizens. Ordinary people said. It's not that I don't consume, but I really want to consume, and the "waist bag" is empty and I don't have money to spend.
Some "experts" believe that the common people are "surplus food at home" and have savings, but they are not willing to spend money and consume because they are not optimistic about the future economic situation and have no confidence. At that time, because of the remarks of "experts" such as these, they also aroused heated discussions and questions among the majority of netizens.
Some netizens said that since our main contradiction in the field of consumption is the problem of no money to consume, it is very easy to do, just give everyone money directly, and let everyone "buy, buy, buy".
What do scholars and experts say?
Guan Qingyou said: As far as the main problem in the current consumption field is concerned, it is not only a short-term problem of issuing consumption vouchers or cash stimulus, but actually a long-term structural problem.
Lu Qiyuan said that the MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) method of directly sending money to the people to stimulate consumption is to kill the Chinese government and Chinese state-owned enterprises.
At the same time, he also fiercely criticized the mainland's top academic "bulls" who put forward such proposals, saying that these so-called academic "bulls" are deceiving 1.4 billion compatriots on behalf of foreigners by proposing to use direct cash distribution to stimulate consumption! Can we stop coming out to harm the government and the people of today like saints and gods? Even in the end, it is very good that these academic "big cows", who are supported by the people at great expense, eat if they do nothing!
In fact, we ordinary people can also understand this truth
Here's a very simple example. For example, in a village, there are a total of 30 households, and there is only one commissary, and they usually buy a bag of salt for 1 yuan.
Suddenly, one day, 30 households in this village, each family received an extra 10,000 yuan, and at the beginning, the salt was still 1 yuan per pack.
Later, the owner of the commissary saw that the stored salt was about to be sold out, so he said that the price would increase from today, 2 yuan and 1 pack, and everyone was not used to it at first, but salt was indispensable, and slowly adapted.
Later, the boss saw that the amount of salt was getting smaller and smaller, so he said that the price would increase again from today, 5 yuan for 1 pack, everyone had no choice, and had no choice but to buy 5 yuan for 1 pack of salt.
If we really use the way of giving cash to our people to stimulate consumption, it will inevitably cause more or less price increases, and perhaps by that time, the money given to the people will soon be consumed, and the rising prices may continue to "hollow out" the people's "pockets" that are not very solid.
Write at the end
In fact, in the current Internet era, we can all see that the global economic situation is not very good, the international situation is also very tense, and conflicts and wars are frequent.
The mainland is now in a special period of economic development, and if we think that we have completed the road of the Western countries for several hundred years in just a few decades, our life has undergone earth-shaking changes compared with a few decades ago, and in the process of such rapid development, it is inevitable that problems of one kind or another will appear.
At this stage, what is needed is for all of us to work together to face and solve this problem.
Chairman Mao once said: "We communists are famous for not being afraid of difficulties. Tactically, we must pay attention to all difficulties. We must adopt a serious attitude toward each specific difficulty, create the necessary conditions, pay attention to the methods of dealing with them, and overcome them one by one and one by one. ”
What do you think about this issue?