Author: Li Yunfei|Source: Original
Now the price of gold is still rising, it has hit a new high in 100 years, a major crisis is about to appear, and the country has finally taken action. There's a lot of information in it, and the average person must watch this video!
As of April 9, the price of gold in London has climbed to $2,358.77 an ounce, and the price of gold in New York has reached $2,372.0 an ounce, a record high since records began in 1920. The price of gold jewelry of many brands in the mainland has also broken through the 700 yuan mark!
At this time, not only the aunts in the mainland are grabbing gold, but now even young couples who have just married are taking out the bride price money to buy gold. Some experts even predict that gold prices will continue to rise in the future as central banks around the world are hoarding gold in large quantities. This has added a lot of confidence to more people on the mainland to rush to buy gold.
But is that really the case? The crisis behind the gold surge is coming! No, the state has finally stepped in now. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has clearly announced that from April 12, gold and copper futures will implement trading limits. Previously, Shenzhen also stipulated that real-name registration was required to buy and sell gold over 20,000 yuan!
So how much information is there?
So let's talk about why the price of gold rose to a new 100-year high?
It can be said that since I have grown so old, I have never seen this year's situation: the scale of US debt has never been so high, and now the interest on US bonds alone is $1.6 trillion a year; the internal contradictions in the United States have never been so chaotic, and now even the American people have begun to scold the United States for dying; the US monetary policy has never been so vacillating, and the Federal Reserve has said that it will cut interest rates for a while, and then it will raise interest rates; in addition, the process of global de-dollarization has never been so fast, and now the world's central banks are hoarding a large amount of gold to remove the dollar, and in the first two months of this year alone, the global central banks bought a total of 64 metric tons of gold.
As the saying goes, the bigger the wind and waves, the more expensive the fish!
Arguably, geopolitical volatility, large US debt, and the acceleration of global de-dollarization have pushed the price of gold to a century-old high this year. Because gold is the best safe-haven asset for investors!
Since gold is the best safe-haven asset, why should the state limit it?
First of all, we need to understand that the pricing of global gold assets is related to the interest rate of US Treasury bonds, which can be said to be negatively correlated. A high interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds means a low price of gold, and a low interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds means a high price of gold. But don't you think it's strange this year? Treasury interest rates remain high, but the price of gold remains even higher, and it is not the highest, only higher.
What does this mean? This shows that gold has been grossly overvalued. Normally, based on the current U.S. bond interest rate, the theoretical price of international gold should not exceed 1,000 US dollars per ounce, which is equivalent to 255 yuan per gram. But now it's more than doubled!
And we need to know that the United States is the country with the largest gold reserves in the world, up to 8,133 tons. In addition, nearly 7,000 tonnes of gold in more than 60 countries around the world are stored in the Federal Reserve's gold inventory. While we are skeptical about the size of the U.S. gold reserves, we have to admit that the U.S. has a lot of gold reserves at its disposal.
So the question is, now that the value of gold is seriously diverging, can the United States sell gold in large quantities, and then short gold through the adjustment of the dollar interest rate? Of course, there is a possibility. It can be said that the United States wants to be eager to return to blood, and it can do anything.
At present, the price of gold is still grafted on the basis of the US dollar interest rate, and now the value of gold is seriously deviating from the US dollar interest rate, which will be very risky.
However, we should know that the large number of gold purchases by global central banks is more to balance the allocation of foreign exchange assets and diversify the over-dependence on a single currency. This means that gold can act as legal tender for central banks for global transactions when necessary.
But for us ordinary people, gold is an investment product. In this case, gold is over-premium, and people are still buying a large number of it, so it is very likely that a large amount of wealth will be lost.
This is the state helping us to control the risk!
Secondly, gold has the characteristics of "high price and easy to sell". Now that the price of gold is so high, some criminals will use gold as an intermediary tool to carry out asset transfer to achieve the purpose of money laundering. Now the gold transaction limit and the real-name system are cracking down on criminals' illegal activities.
Moreover, let's not forget that the focus of the mainland's work this year is to promote domestic demand, and if everyone uses their money to buy gold, not to mention the risks, where will the common people have money to spend? This is not in line with the mainland's economic development policy this year!
To sum up, we ordinary people should still treat the matter of the sharp rise in gold prices rationally and must not blindly follow. Because behind the big rise there will be a big fall, this is the law of nature!
Author: Li Yunfei, founder of a large Internet company, CEO of a large food chain enterprise, engaged in the Internet and physical chain industry for 20 years, has been reported by Sohu.com, Netease Finance, Tencent, Phoenix.com, Zhongxun.com, Baidu and other well-known media platforms, good at financial knowledge analysis, entrepreneurial guidance!