The U.S. strategic focus is shifting to the Asia-Pacific region and is reluctant to see an escalation in Iran and Israel. However, the problems facing Biden are complex and serious, and Israel, known as the "small hegemon in the Middle East", sometimes does not cater to the interests of the United States, which has become the biggest destabilizing factor in the escalation of the situation in the Middle East.
In the early morning of the 19th local time, Israel ignored the warning of the United States and retaliated against Iran. According to Iran's Fars news agency, explosions were heard in the Kajavaristan area of Isfahan province in central Iran.
After the explosion, according to Iranian state television, the senior commander of the Iranian army, Siawash Mihanddos, said that "the night attack did not cause any damage" because Iranian air defense systems shot down the incoming missile. However, according to ABC, a U.S. official confirmed to ABC News that an Israeli missile had hit a location inside Iran.
In addition, according to Al-Arabiya Television and its subordinate media, a large number of warplanes appeared in the sky over the Iraqi provinces of Mosul and Albil, and explosions were heard simultaneously in the Iraqi provinces of Baghdad and Babylon and the Syrian province of Suweida. There are pro-Iranian armed groups active in Iraq and Syria, as well as a small number of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which Israel considers to be a threat to its national security, so it often sends out warplanes to launch air strikes, and it is estimated that Israeli warplanes have attacked these targets this time.
According to the Associated Press, Dubai-based Emirates and flydubai began changing course over western Iran at around 4:30 a.m. local time. They did not provide any explanation, but local warnings to pilots indicated that the airspace may have been closed, the report said. In addition, according to information displayed on the flight tracking website, a number of flights were diverted in Iranian airspace. At the same time, Iran has temporarily suspended flights to several cities, including Isfahan, Shiraz and the capital, Tehran.
First of all, from the perspective of the Israeli Air Force's attack target and intensity, the main attack is Iran's Isfahan Air Base, no nuclear facilities have been attacked, and Iran's losses are limited, which determines that if Iran launches retaliatory actions, its strength is estimated to be very limited, and it may use several drones to attack Israel, or remotely control Iraqi militias and Allah forces to attack Israel.
Second, on April 1, the Iranian embassy in Syria was hit by an air strike by Israeli warplanes. On the evening of the 13th, Iran launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israel. This round of large-scale strikes has basically achieved its strategic objectives, and Iran has already regained face, and it is unlikely that it will continue to launch large-scale strikes against Israel.
Finally, on April 18, Reuters reported that the G7 finance ministers pledged to cooperate on Iran sanctions and Russia's frozen assets. On the same day, Biden announced new sanctions on Iran, targeting drone manufacturing plants as the main target and imposing stricter export controls.
The G7 accounts for about 43% of the global economy, and if Iran launches another large-scale military operation against Israel, the G7 could impose broader sanctions. In such a situation, Iran needs to exercise restraint to avoid undermining its own interests. However, this does not mean that Iran will not take any action, but it has many factors to consider, and the amount of retaliation is limited.
(Text/Woo Tsai)