In the early hours of this morning local time, while the land of the Middle East was still asleep, a sharp explosion broke the tranquility in Iran, Syria and Iraq. Explosions were reported in Isfahan in Iran, Suweida in southern Syria and Baghdad and Babylon in Iraq.
A number of civilian airliners flying over Iran have also been rerouted, and Iran's anti-aircraft fire has also opened fire into the air one after another, and the originally quiet sky is suddenly illuminated by firelight.
Soon, as the vast number of melon-eating people speculated, ABC reported that a U.S. official confirmed that Israel had launched missile strikes on targets inside Iran.
Obviously, the most worrying thing happened!
Iran's official news agency also announced that Iran's air defense system has been activated over several provinces, and Iran's aviation department has also announced the temporary suspension of flights to Tehran and Isfahan airports. Iranian state television reported that Iran's nuclear facilities are currently undamaged.
Ever since Iran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel, Israel's retaliatory actions against Iran have attracted much attention. On the one hand, this is the first time that Iran has launched a large-scale attack on Israel itself, and the Middle East bully, who can only fight others and cannot fight Israel, must not swallow this breath. If Israel launches a retaliatory strike against Iran, it will naturally add fuel to the current extremely tense situation in the Middle East, and it is very likely to trigger Iran's all-out end and start a war with Israel.
After all, Iran is also a figure with a head and a face in the Middle East, so many younger brothers watched the eldest brother get beaten and didn't even let out a fart, and it will be difficult to bring this team in the future. Moreover, it is impossible to explain it at home, and once the surging public opinion engulfs the Iranian government, it will be almost a spark to detonate a war in the Middle East at that time.
On the other hand, today's Middle East situation is also affecting the whole body. If Israel retaliates against Iran and launches a military strike against Iran, international oil prices and gold prices will usher in a wave of strong rises, which will make it even more difficult for the United States and many other countries whose economies are already in trouble.
Moreover, the situation in the Middle East is also very closely related to the Russian-Ukrainian war, and Israel's retaliation against Iran will inevitably cause the United States to invest more resources in the Middle East to support Israel.
Sure enough, as soon as Israel launched an attack on Iran, Asia-Pacific stock markets fell sharply in early trading, and gold and crude oil prices also rose. The date of Israel's attack on Iran is also very particular, specifically picking the 85th birthday of Iran's Supreme Spiritual Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei.
Moreover, Iran had just stated in the Joint Security Council the day before that Iran was willing to ease tensions as long as Israel agreed to stop military operations against Iran. As a result, as soon as the Iranian side finished speaking, Israeli missiles fell on the Iranians' heads.
Presumably, there is also a lot of excitement in Iran, and Iran's attack on Israel was originally in retaliation for Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria. Well, Iran has repeatedly stated that Iran is willing to de-escalate the situation as long as Israel ends here, and Israel's missiles can be said to have completely made Iran's approach a laughing stock.
Next, the whole world will be watching how the Iranian government handles the matter. You must know that the Iranian side has repeatedly warned Israel not to launch retaliatory attacks against Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Bagheri has warned Israel that Iran will respond more forcefully and quickly to any new actions against Iran.
Iranian military spokesman Shekarshi also issued a statement warning Israel not to take new measures against Iran. After a lot of cruel words, and warnings have been warned again and again, now that Israeli missiles are still dropped on Iran, I am afraid that the Iranian side will not have many choices for Israel.
In addition to the displeasure of the Iranian side, the United States should be the most unhappy in Israel's attack on Iran.
When Iran launched a retaliatory attack on Israel, the United States sent warplanes to intercept Iranian missiles and drones in order to protect Israel. And immediately after the Iranian operation, the United States announced that it would not support and participate in any retaliatory actions by Israel.
Biden even spoke with Netanyahu on the phone to dissuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from taking immediate retaliation against Iran, and Netanyahu also said that although many members of the wartime cabinet were in favor of retaliating against Iran, given that Iran's attack did not cause serious damage to Israel itself, coupled with the phone call with Biden, Israel's riposte was canceled.
However, just when the outside world thought that the matter was over, news came from the Israeli side. Israeli President Isaac Herzog has said Israel does not seek war with Iran, but its attacks must be responded to accordingly. Israeli media also released information that the Israeli cabinet security meeting did not make a decision on matters related to the response to the Iranian attack.
The New York Times also reported that Israel has decided to strike at Iran in a clear and forceful manner, and has prepared a number of fighter jets to carry out the mission. At this point, the Israeli side seems to have made up its mind to retaliate against Iran. And Egyptian officials revealed that the United States has accepted the Netanyahu government's previous plan for military operations in Rafah in exchange for Israel not launching a large-scale attack on Iran.
Now that Israel has launched a retaliatory attack on Iran, the United States' previous exhortations to Israel and its agreement to the military plan plan on Rafah have undoubtedly lost their meaning. This not only means that the United States has failed to dissuade the Netanyahu government, but also that Israel is likely to be ready for military action against Rafah.
In fact, judging from the current situation, Israel's retaliatory actions against Iran are not about causing much damage to Iran, but adding fuel to the already tense situation in the Middle East. For Israel, Netanyahu's government is currently under pressure from both inside and outside the country and has to make strategic choices.
Internally, the Netanyahu government has made Israel very dissatisfied with judicial reform and the war in Gaza. If Netanyahu's government ends the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in its current state, Netanyahu will step down and accept liquidation.
Externally, Israel's genocide and attacks on civilians in the Gaza Strip have caused great displeasure in the international community. Even in the United States, which is firmly on Israel's side, more and more people are criticizing the Biden administration's policies, which have a tendency to affect Biden's election this year. The current focus of the Biden administration is to move strategically eastward and mobilize superior resources to the Asia-Pacific region.
Israel's large-scale fight in the Middle East at this time is completely not in the interests of the United States, and the United States naturally hopes that the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will end as soon as possible, and for this reason it has been putting pressure on Netanyahu, and even did not hesitate to abstain from voting on Israel-related resolutions of the UN Security Council. Democratic Party boss Schumer even released cruel words and demanded that Netanyahu step down.
Faced with such a complicated situation, Netanyahu's government took advantage of this retaliatory air strike against Iran to make a choice. That is, Iran must be hit in retaliatory response. However, it is clear that the Israeli side is also well aware of the dangers of the situation. Therefore, before this attack, the Israeli side released information that Israel's wartime cabinet said that it was preparing a powerful strike against Iran, but that Israel's retaliation would not cause casualties, which was to avoid expanding the conflict. The Israeli Ministry of Defense is drawing up a list of targets to which the United States will not object.
Obviously, the subtext of the Israeli side is that Iran will let me fight, it will not cause Iranian casualties, let me have a step down, and you Iran will not retaliate against me, so that we can turn the page on this matter.
Judging from the effect of Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran, it seems to confirm this statement. Isfahan, where Israel struck this time, is home to Iran's key military centers, heavy water and nuclear facilities, as well as Iran's drone factories. According to Iran's Fars news agency, Isfahan airport and Shekari airbase were attacked, but the attack was minor and did not cause much damage, and the local situation is normal.
It can be said that if Israel really wants to strike Iran on a large scale, with the capabilities of the Israeli Air Force, Iran will never lose a little. Recall that the Israeli Air Force bombed Iraq's nuclear facilities in Operation Babylon, the Israeli Air Force was fully capable of wreaking havoc on Iran's nuclear facilities, but Israel did not. It seems that the Israeli side is also following Iran's previous retaliatory actions to avoid a major escalation of the situation.
As for Iran, although Israel's retaliatory attack is difficult for the Iranian side to accept, Iran does not want the situation to continue to escalate to the point of personal end. Otherwise, Iran would not have focused its previous retaliatory air strikes on only three targets: the Mossad intelligence center in the Golan Heights, Ramon Air Base in the southwestern Negev desert, and the Nevatim Air Base in the northeast Negev.
As far as Iran is concerned, the best choice for Iran at present is not to fight Israel to the death, but to use the arc of resistance to constantly contain and consume Israel's strength, so as to avoid burning itself in person. For this reason, Iran has always maintained a good strategic focus, and if Israel had not gone too far and directly bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria and set Iran on fire, Iran would probably not have easily launched a retaliatory attack against Israel.
In response to the attack, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also announced earlier that the attack could not be ruled out as some drone attacks or other sabotage activities carried out by anti-Israeli elements in the territory assisting Israel. Obviously, the Iranian side is also interested in finding some steps to try to control the situation.
From the perspective of Iran, Israel, and the United States, the three are more like a game that no one can afford to lose, compared to the Middle East war and regional tensions that the outside world has focused on. The United States hopes that Israel will end the war in Gaza as soon as possible and not create a humanitarian crisis that will affect the Biden administration's global strategy and election process.
Israel, because the war in Gaza is not going well, and the Netanyahu government is facing internal and external pressure, so if it wants to expand the war and divert contradictions, it is best to pull the US military into the water to endorse itself.
Iran, on the other hand, hopes to constantly use the arc of resistance to consume Israel, and use it as a bargaining chip to negotiate the JCPOA with the United States to maximize its interests. Avoiding the war in person in advance and preserving its strength is the best choice for Iran. Therefore, Iran has maintained a good strategic determination in recent years, even in retaliation for Israel's attacks, and has been cautious in informing the relevant parties in advance.
From this point of view, Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran is likely to be similar to Iran's previous retaliatory attacks, and it is more of an action for face, out of political considerations, rather than to achieve any military goals. The key to the future development of the situation in the Middle East is whether Iran can maintain its strategic focus and launch new retaliatory actions against Israel.
The United States may not sit idly by, and the Biden administration will take action to engage with Iran and Israel, both public and private, and the direction of the situation in the Middle East is still full of uncertainties.