In March 2024, the total volume of China's export trade with Russia fell by 15.7%, a news that shocked many. Many people are speculating about the reason for this huge drop. Some believe that US financial sanctions played a key role, while others believe that this decline is not a direct result of US financial sanctions, but a natural reaction to market changes and the development of local Russian enterprises.
Natural changes in market cycles are an important reason for the decline in trade turnover. The size of trade between China and Russia has been on the rise over the past few years, but this growth cannot last forever. Since 2023, the trade volume between China and Russia has soared, filling the gap created by EU sanctions on the Russian market. However, as time goes on, the market saturation gradually increases and demand tends to stabilize, so the growth momentum of trade volume will naturally slow down or even decline.
The development of domestic Russian enterprises is also an important factor in the decline in trade turnover. Although Chinese goods have accounted for a large proportion of the Russian market in the past few years, the Russian government and companies have also realized the risks of relying on imported goods and have begun to develop local industries. In the context of the development of local industries in Russia, the degree of dependence on Chinese goods will naturally decrease, which has also led to a decline in the volume of China's export trade with Russia.
In addition, although the financial sanctions of the United States have had a certain impact on Sino-Russian trade relations, they are not the only reason for the decline in trade volume. Despite U.S. sanctions that attempt to undermine economic cooperation between China and Russia, both China and Russia have a strong resilience to risks, and they have the ability to respond to U.S. sanctions and continue to maintain trade relations. Moreover, with the further strengthening of Sino-Russian relations, the cooperation between the two countries in the field of trade will also become closer, and it can be said that the financial sanctions of the United States are not paper tigers.
Overall, although the volume of China's export trade with Russia has fallen by 15.7%, it does not mean that there has been a fundamental change in trade relations between China and Russia. On the contrary, this decline is more a natural consequence of market changes and the development of local Russian industries. In the face of U.S. financial sanctions, China and Russia are also capable of responding and maintaining trade cooperation between the two countries. In the future, economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia will remain stable and is expected to further develop and grow.