Trump's return to the White House, Republican elections have never been a thing, and it is only now that he has hit the first big hurdle headfirst. At present, Trump has slightly more approval rating than Biden in the election, but the lead is not by much, and almost all American media believe that it is the series of legal actions that Trump faces that could have a significant impact on the election situation.
Earlier this year, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a Colorado court's ruling in the 2021 Capitol Hill storm, arguing that the state Supreme Court did not have jurisdiction over the actions of federal officials and defused the biggest "time bomb" tied to Trump.
But Trump didn't rejoice for long, soon facing four more criminal charges, and before the November election, only one criminal trial was opened, in the so-called "hush money" case, in which Trump allegedly falsified business records during the 2016 campaign to pay hush money to star Stormy Daniels in order to hide his extramarital affair scandal from the public.
(Trump in Manhattan courtroom)
1. Trump became the first former U.S. president to be tried criminally
And now, the US court is hearing the "hush money" case, creating history: Trump became the first former US president to face a criminal trial.
The trial process of this case is expected to last 6 to 8 weeks, and many American media predict that if Trump does not pass smoothly this time and is really found guilty by the court, then he is likely to lose without a fight, and his only opponent, Biden, will win without a fight and successfully win re-election. The next eight weeks of court defense will be a "battle of life and death" for Trump.
But in fact, the U.S. Constitution does not stipulate that criminals cannot participate in the U.S. presidential election, even if Trump is sentenced to prison, it will theoretically not affect his participation in the election, if he wins the election, he will be granted criminal immunity, and his supporters will be more convinced that this is a Democratic political persecution of him, so they will vote for him more firmly; in addition, the so-called "falsification of business records" is usually a misdemeanor in the United States, and even if Trump is found guilty, the sentence may not be too long.
(Biden and his team stop at nothing to stop Trump)
But this case is still very important, and the verdict will seriously affect the outcome of the US election. The main reasons are as follows:
First, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who indicted Trump, argued that hush money amounted to a violation of campaign finance rules and elevated the charge to a felony, meaning that Trump could face more than 4 years in prison if convicted, which would directly affect Trump's campaign canvassing activities.
However, U.S. judges have more room to maneuver on similar charges, and some legal experts believe that the possibility of Trump going to jail is very small, and he can be released on bail during the appeal period and continue his campaign.
However, if Trump is convicted, it could have a fatal impact on approval ratings. According to a Bloomberg poll released in January, more than half of swing state voters said they would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty, although four out of ten swing state voters said they would firmly support Trump even if he was convicted, and about 7% were undecided.
(U.S. election poll on April 15)
According to the latest poll results on April 15, Trump is more certain to get 221 electoral votes, Biden is more certain to get 213 electoral votes, and swing states have 104 electoral votes.
If only 40 percent of swing state electors vote for Trump, his total vote will only be about 262, less than the 270 needed to get elected, and for Biden, if 50 percent of swing state electors vote for him, his total vote will reach 265, about 5 votes short of the 270 votes needed for election, but already ahead of Trump. The remaining 7 percent of the undecided swing state electoral votes are significant, but the overall picture is in Biden's favor.
(Comprehensive survey results of three U.S. polling organizations released on April 13)
2. If Trump is found guilty, swing states or fall to Biden?
To make matters worse, the inclinations of Americans have begun to change. According to the reports of the three largest election polling companies in the United States, taken together, on April 13, 2024, Biden and Trump's approval ratings began to reverse, with Trump's approval rating turning downward from leading Biden and Biden's approval rating turning upward from lagging behind Trump.
If this trend continues, then Trump's loss of the election will be a high probability event. The winds within the Republican Party may also be "chaotic". According to some polls in the United States, many Republicans say that if Trump is found guilty, they will not vote for him again, even if it does not prevent him from running. This will also result in a possible reduction in the electoral votes that Trump currently counts as a "red state."
Taken together, the criminal charges Trump faces, while not serious in themselves, could have a fatal impact on his election if convicted.
Trump, of course, has always criticized the trial as a witch hunt by the Democratic Party, and in fact he is right: as early as the end of last year, some Democratic lawmakers openly said that if Trump gave up running for president of the United States, then all the criminal charges he faced would be dropped. That's right, even the "Capitol storm" is not entangled anymore. Some American political experts have pointed out that even if Trump participates in the election and loses the election, the current charges surrounding him will be dropped, because no one cares about a loser.
But Trump must run for election, and his approval rating has been higher than Biden's for some time, which is a violation of the rules. Some Democrats believe that if Trump is elected president, there will be a "reckoning" of Biden and some Democrats who are believed to have persecuted him, and a series of legal proceedings will toss them. So the Democrats must not let Trump win.
The U.S. election has become a stage to show the tears in American society, reflecting the fear of the rise of China and the prospect of the United States losing its global hegemony. Both Trump and Biden are boasting about who can save the United States and who can MAGA, and there are many more variables in the future election. For the Chinese watching the excitement, we need to remember that no matter who wins the US election, the great power competition between China and the United States will not stop, and the United States will not relax its suppression of China.