Recently, an interesting incident has happened in the hog field, which has aroused the keen attention of the hog market.
Recently, it was reported that just last week, the first batch of 27 tons of pork exported by Russia to China has arrived at Chinese ports, which means that Russian pork exports to China have resumed.
Why is this interesting?
First of all, pay attention to the quantity, it is 27 tons, yes, yes, that's right, there is no 10,000 words behind, it is 27 tons.
And according to estimates, the total amount of pork exported by Russia to China this year is estimated to be around 1.5-25,000 tons.
What is this concept?
Our first few recycling and storage were basically about 20,000 or 30,000 tons, that is to say, the annual export volume of Russian pork to China is also the amount of one-time storage.
Why will this amount attract the keen attention of the pig market?
It's a bit confusing.
What's even more interesting is that, strictly speaking, this is not news, but a veritable old story.
The reason why I say "recovery" means that this is not the first time, as early as 16 years ago, Russian pork was already exported to China.
Due to the impact of global swine fever, in 2008, the mainland suspended the import of Russian pork, so the interruption was 16 years.
As early as last year, the mainland lifted the restrictions on the export of Russian pork that meets quarantine requirements to China, and at the end of last year, the two countries signed a series of agreements to re-determine the export of Russian pork to China.
Then last week, this batch of Russian pork finally re-entered the Chinese market after a 16-year hiatus.
Therefore, the cause and effect of this incident are very clear, and it was reported as early as last year when the restrictions were lifted and the agreement was signed, and the arrival of pork in Hong Kong this time is just the implementation of the previous agreement.
So strictly speaking, this time to talk about things, it is obviously cold rice and hot fried.
But it's strange, it's obviously cold rice, and it's only 27 tons, why is the pig market's reaction so big?
I think this can only say one thing, and that is that the current hog market seems to be extremely bullish, but in fact it is still very fragile.
The mainland is a big pork consumer, with an annual consumption of tens of millions of tons, while Russia is also a big pork producer, with an annual production of 5 million tons, which is far from the mainland.
In addition, Russia's consumption of pork is not low, so the amount available for export is limited. And according to speculation, even if the follow-up opening is opened, the export volume will not exceed 200,000 tons, which is not even a dime of Jiuniu compared with domestic pork production.
What's more, the mainland's pork imports also reach one million tons every year, for example, last year's pork imports were 1.55 million tons, how could they be frightened by this mere 27 tons?
It can only be said that the current hog market is extremely fragile.
On the one hand, the pig market has been tormented for too long, and there are concerns along with bullishness.
For example, the current pig market is relatively different, some people are optimistic, some people are not optimistic, but it is worth mentioning that this good and bad is not simply the gap between the rise and fall.
For example, some people think that the good is the comprehensive reversal of the pig cycle, the pig price began to stop falling and rising, and the pig farmers have since turned losses into profits, opening a new round of cycle.
But if you think it's bad, it's not blindly bearish, but you think that phased profits exist, but you are not optimistic about the duration of profits, and you think that the time for profits may not last.
As a result, the hog market has been arguing between these two views, even if it is bullish and there is a hint of concern.
On the other hand, there is more concern about consumption.
It is true that the pig production capacity is decentralized, but the probability of a large reduction is decreasing, which is almost the consensus of the market, so in the case that the supply side is almost difficult to drop, the pig market is stuck in consumption.
But at present, the market lacks confidence in consumption.
Although there is a clear recovery in the economy, as we said before, this is a composite data, but when it comes to specific industries, there are considerable differences.
For example, tourism and other consumption growth momentum is relatively strong, but the consumption of vegetable basket grain and oil products growth is flat, which is often closely related to money bags.
Everyone is paying attention to consumption, but sometimes consumption growth does not mean an increase in income, only when income is truly stable, will it be reflected in daily consumption, people want to spend, and dare to spend.
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!