This week (4.15-4.19), the domestic construction steel market prices rose sharply. According to the market monitoring of Lange Iron and Steel Information Research Center, as of April 19, the domestic price of Φ25mm three-stage rebar was 3,778 yuan, up 110 yuan from last week, and the average price of domestic Φ8.0mm three-stage coiled snail was 4,014 yuan, up 116 yuan from last week.
According to the monitoring data of Lange cloud business platform, on April 18, 2024, a total of 135 blast furnaces in 85 steel mills among the 201 production enterprises in the country stopped production, with a total volume of 143768 cubic meters, a decrease of 210 cubic meters from last week, and the blast furnace operating rate of major iron and steel enterprises by volume was 73.72%, an increase of 0.01% from last week, with little change. This week, the daily output of molten iron of steel mills decreased compared with last week, of which the daily output of molten iron in North China, East China and Central China all decreased; the daily output of molten iron increased due to the restart of individual blast furnaces in South China; and the daily output of molten iron in other regions did not change much.
In terms of key data, [GDP] GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was 296299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. From January to March, the national real estate development investment was 2,208.2 billion yuan, down 9.5 percent year-on-year, of which residential investment was 1,658.5 billion yuan, down 10.5 percent. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in March 2024, the mainland's crude steel output was 88.27 million tons, down 7.8% year-on-year, the average daily crude steel output in March was 2.847 million tons, up 1.7% month-on-month, and from January to March, the mainland's crude steel output was 256.55 million tons, down 1.9% year-on-year. According to the statistics of major excavator manufacturers by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 24,980 excavators of various types were sold in March 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34%, of which 15,188 were domestic, a year-on-year increase of 9.27%, and 9,792 were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%.
In terms of inventory, as of the 19th, the total inventory of construction steel in key cities across the country was 8.1741 million tons, a decrease of 602,600 tons from last week, a decrease of 6.87% week-on-week, and a month-on-month decrease of 20.55%. Among them, East China decreased by 173,300 tons week-on-week, North China decreased by 132,600 tons, Northeast China decreased by 126,900 tons, and Northwest China decreased by 69,900 tons.
This week, spot prices continued to rise, and downstream demand was released. At present, judging from the national sample building materials shipments, the average value of this week is 186,700 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons from the average value of last week. On the one hand, this week's inventory accelerated decline, inventory pressure is small; second, the regional coil resources are tight, and steel mills have adjusted the coil line to increase prices; third, the first-quarter data released this week exceeded expectations, and the market mentality has recovered; fourth, the holiday is approaching, the construction site is stocking, and the demand is still there. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic construction steel market may fluctuate stronger next week. (Lange Steel)