Policies continue to increase, in 2015 to stimulate the rapid recovery of the property market "big trick" - demolition debuted again, a number of policies with the blessing, people's attention to the property market is getting higher and higher, many people began to take this opportunity to enter the market quickly.
However, some insiders have reminded that with the implementation of the three major policies, the logic of buying a house will change from 2024.
.01
The current situation of the property market
According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, in January ~ March 2024, the total sales of the top 100 enterprises in the real estate industry reached 897.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 49% over the same period last year.
However, it is worth noting that the monthly sales growth in March reached 117.3% month-on-month, which means that although the market is still relatively sluggish, it has shown signs of gradual recovery.
Seeing this, some people may ask, this round of property market adjustment, more precisely, began at the end of 2021, and now in more than two years, various large and small measures are no less than hundreds, why has the market not recovered?
In fact, this is also very related to the different situation of the real estate market back then, for example, in the past, the real estate market only had too much inventory and the market confidence was insufficient. However, this time, more than 60% of the debt of real estate companies has been superimposed, and after three years of the epidemic, people's income expectations are insufficient and employment stability is expected to decline.
Therefore, at present, in addition to using a large amount of funds to solve the project problems of real estate companies, avoid unfinished, and boost market confidence, it is also necessary to improve the income of the people, so that everyone has the confidence and courage to buy a house to digest the inventory.
.02
Three new policies have been implemented
1. Directly "transfuse" real estate projects.
In order to stabilize the project, solve the difficulties of developers, and also to boost the confidence of home buyers, so that everyone does not have to worry about buying unfinished, banks have begun to carry out "blood transfusion" on real estate projects.
According to the information of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, at present, 276 cities in 31 provinces across the country have established urban financing coordination mechanisms, and 6,000 real estate projects that have applied for financing have been approved for loans of more than 200 billion yuan.
At this rate, it is believed that it will not be long before there will be trillions of dollars in the "white list" financing pool of real estate projects across the country.
2. The urban village renovation project has been launched.
According to the Beijing News, 3 first-tier cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing, and 25 second- and third-tier cities have announced that the first special loan for urban village renovation has been approved for credit line or has been implemented locally.
The credit covers 371 urban village reconstruction projects, with a credit amount of 920.19 billion yuan and a loan amount of 39.91 billion yuan.
Since some cities did not disclose the specific credit amount, loan amount, and number of projects, and did not include them in the calculation of the total, the actual scale is expected to exceed the current statistics, and the actual amount of credit is expected to exceed one trillion yuan.
The report pointed out that the special loans opened in this round are used for the transformation of urban villages, which is mainly to solve the problems of too much capital investment in the early stage of urban village reconstruction projects, too long capital recovery cycle, mismatch of input-output cash flow, mismatch of maturity, high cost of capital interest, and difficulty in demolition and resettlement. In particular, the problem of demolition and resettlement of urban villages is a core blockage and pain point in the preliminary work. Special loans can first make up for the financial problems of cities that are unable to carry out land consolidation and demolition, and then drive the entry of subsequent supporting related loans.
In other words, the implementation of this measure, on the one hand, can increase the demand for the property market (demolition) to solve the current situation of sluggish demand in the property market. On the other hand, through the construction of supporting facilities, more value will be given to the residential community.
3. It is clear that residents' income expectations will be raised in 2024.
In the face of downward pressure on the economy and consumption, the NDRC made it clear at the beginning of the year that one of the key tasks in 2024 is to "make great efforts to improve residents' income expectations" and "promote residents' income increase through multiple channels".
In terms of promoting the increase of residents' income through multiple channels, it also said that it will give more prominence to the priority orientation of employment, ensure the stability of employment of key groups, actively broaden the channels for increasing residents' income, expand the scale of middle-income groups, and strengthen measures to increase farmers' income.
It is foreseeable that the income of our people will have a good performance in 2024.
In short, after the implementation of these three policies, it is undoubtedly good news for the owners who hold the house in their hands, with the stability of the capital chain of real estate enterprises, the growth of people's income, and the recovery of market confidence, it will also drive a new round of housing demand and promote the gradual recovery of the real estate market. So, how do homebuyers respond.
.03
What about buyers?
Obviously, buying a house in this round of property market is indeed different from before. The main thing is not to consider the question of whether to rise in the future, but to worry about what kind of differentiation will occur in the subsequent market if there is a rise?
Therefore, for home buyers, it is necessary to take precautions, and it is recommended to consider three aspects:
1. The newer the house you buy, the better
Judging from the trend that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will start to pilot the construction of good houses from 2024, the construction standards of the house will be increased accordingly, and the new house will most likely be better than the previous one, which means that the newer the proposal to buy a house next, the better.
2. It is better to buy an improved house
Judging from the new real estate model of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, which requires vigorously building affordable housing, it is best to distinguish the commercial housing you buy from the ordinary commercial housing, because the ordinary commercial housing will face strong competition for affordable housing, so it is recommended to buy improved housing next.
3. The lower the total floor, the better
From the point of view of the provinces to reduce the housing floor area ratio (reduce the total floor of housing), because there is no shortage of rigid housing at present, and in order to avoid wasting resources and protect the market, the vast majority of cities will basically not build houses according to the original logic, such as building higher and higher; even the main urban area will basically be built below 18 floors in the future, and the suburbs are basically bungalows or villas, which is actually one of the reasons why the current large and high-rise buildings in various cities are seriously sold off.
Therefore, if you want to buy a house, it is recommended to do your best to choose a house with as low a total floor as possible.
Finally, from the perspective of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's scientific preparation of housing development plans for 2024 and 2025, as well as the planning of housing development plans before 2030 in advance, through land supply control and through this round of property market all-round destocking, there may no longer be a large-scale inventory accumulation similar to these years in the future, so for property holders, the next few years may be the best moment for them to "leave".
Wan Ziwen said: Every word of the article was typed out by me, and I clicked "watching" to let me know that you are also "doing your best" for life.
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