1. Good morning, brothers and sisters! The three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed on Thursday, with the Dow up 0.06%, the S&P down 0.22%, and the Nasdaq down 0.52% as of the close; most of the popular technology stocks fell, with TSMC falling more than 4%; Tesla falling more than 3%, hitting a new low since January 2023; popular Chinese concept stocks rose, Weibo rose more than 3%, and NetEase and NIO rose more than 2% It is worth noting that the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq have fallen for five consecutive trading days.
2. Why have U.S. stocks been falling continuously recently?
Reason 1: The Fed's interest rate cut expectations are disappointed! The US March CPI data released some time ago was higher than expected, resulting in the continued rise of US inflation data, which directly led to the Fed's interest rate cut in June is basically hopeless, and the recent Fed officials have frequently made hawkish remarks that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates for the time being, and even consider raising interest rates.
Reason 2: The international tension, the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the Iran-Israel conflict, etc., and the recent conflict between Iran and Israel are all unfavorable factors for the global stock market, and it is negative for the global stock market. From the perspective of capital, a lot of funds have recently flowed out of the stock market and into safe-haven assets such as gold bonds. As a result, U.S. stocks fell collectively.
Reason 3: The tech bubble may burst, and the soaring US stock market this year is largely due to the development of artificial intelligence, that is, generative AI. Companies that provide computing power, including NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel, as well as traditional giants such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and MATA, which develop big oracle models, are accelerating their layout in this area and reaping dividends. But the key problem is that there is a bubble in the technology stocks in the US stock market at present, according to the CNNmoney fear and greed index, the relevant indicators of US technology stocks have been at a high level, the index has reached 79, which means that there is an obvious "overbought phenomenon" among US investors, and the US stock market should have a correction. So recently, we can see that hedge funds have built a lot of short positions, and some tech giants have also heard the wind and started to sell stocks, and the US stock Nasdaq is a technology stock, which has led to the continuous decline.
3. What is the impact of the continuous decline of U.S. stocks on A-shares?
The decline in U.S. stocks is naturally a negative decline for A-shares, especially the technology sector of A-shares, today is the "419 magic day" of A-shares, and the probability of A-shares falling is still very large today, and the Asian stock market is also collectively opening low today, Japanese stocks, Korean stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares are all falling today.
But don't worry too much, A-shares have been falling for 3 years, and now there is no big room for decline, Dalong is optimistic that A-shares will continue to hit 3100 points after adjustment, and this position will be broken sooner or later, it is only a matter of time.
4. How will the U.S. stock market go in the future? Will it still rise?
From a short-term perspective, the top three stock indexes of U.S. stock futures have all fallen by more than 1%, and Nasdaq futures have fallen by 1.57%, which means that U.S. stocks will continue to fall in the evening, and short-term U.S. stocks have not yet come out of the shadow of adjustment.
From a long-term perspective, the basis of the U.S. stock bull market has not changed, and in the short term, it is only because the U.S. stock market has risen continuously to break new highs and there are some short-term bearishness, which has led to the market has been falling, and when the negative dissipates, the U.S. stock market will quickly rise back to a new high. The performance of U.S. stocks is mainly due to the resilience of the U.S. economy and the ultra-optimism brought about by the artificial intelligence technology revolution.
First, the expectation of a soft landing for the U.S. economy is very sufficient. Inflation is steadily declining, but the labor market remains tight, and nothing could get better for ordinary Americans. If prices are cheaper, but wages are not reduced, then they will have no worries about their consumption spending.
Second, interest rate cuts are expected. Although the Federal Reserve has been shouting that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates recently, the Fed will cut interest rates at least once this year, and when the interest rate cuts land later, U.S. stocks will continue to rise
5. In a word, short-term U.S. stocks and A-shares will continue to fall for a period of time due to the negative impact, and after this wave of adjustment, a new stage of rise will come, hold on!
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