[Market Analysis and Interpretation] 2024.4.19
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened collectively lower, and then showed a continuous downward trend, with more than 3,900 stocks falling more and rising less, with a half-day turnover of 572.5 billion and a net outflow of 5.29 billion northbound funds.
Today is April 19th, and the discussion about the "419 curse" is starting to heat up again, and there are rumors that the stock market performance may be relatively weak in the second half of April, but I think the situation may be different this year, and we might as well dig deeper from multiple angles.
First of all, in the past, every mid-April, listed companies would release first-quarter performance forecasts, and the market often appeared weak because of the good news overdraft in advance, but this year the situation is different, and the forecast of a quarterly report is no longer mandatory, which makes me think the market may usher in some unexpected surprises. At the end of the month, there may be some undervalued high-performing companies that will pop up and bring new vitality to the market.
In addition, after a round of adjustment in the A-share market recently, many risks have actually been released in advance, which means that the current market may have been more stable, laying a solid foundation for the next rise. I noticed that with the popularity of self-media, many retail investors have expectations for the market weakness in the second half of April, but we all know that there are often "opposite" situations in the stock market, so this "curse" may not really be fulfilled.
From a technical point of view, A-shares temporarily fell back and consolidated after hitting the annual line, which is actually a state of poised to go, especially yesterday when the stock market hit a new high, which undoubtedly added a lot of confidence to the new round of rising market, as long as the international situation is stable, I think the market is likely to walk out of a decisive long yang line next week to achieve a real breakthrough. So, as an investor, I think we can be moderately optimistic right now, and we can focus on the outperforming stocks that may surprise in the later earnings results, as well as the sectors that are worth well in the early correction.
From the perspective of sectors, the petroleum and petrochemical, energy, and ground armament sectors led the gains today, while the consumer electronics, smart wearables, and intelligent driving sectors led the declines today.
From the perspective of capital, there was a net inflow of petroleum and petrochemicals, bulk commodities and resources, and a net outflow of high-end manufacturing, high-end equipment and science and technology.
In terms of indexes, the petrochemical industry, military industry index, and aerospace integration were among the top daily gainers, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Hong Kong dollar, artificial intelligence, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index were the last to rise on a daily basis.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week, 10-week, 20-week moving averages are golden crosses, MACD indicator golden cross, red column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator golden cross convergence upward, J value probe top turning head, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle track.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 30-week moving average, and the technical upside space is open, and the upper pressure is near 3130 points, that is, near the 60-week moving average, and it will encounter real big resistance at that time.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day moving average, golden cross, 10-day, 20-day moving average, MACD indicator death fork, green column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator death fork convergence upward, J value probe top turn, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle track.
Analysis: In the short term, after this wave of technical adjustment, the index has achieved a short-term technical breakthrough in the past two days, standing above the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages, but other technical indicators have little upside, and there is also a trend of stagflation at the top, so it cannot be said that the current technical side has opened the upward channel, but it can be said that the downward resistance will be greater than the upward trend.
【Fundamentals & News】
From January to March, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 2,337.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. (Electricity)
Telecom operators continue to increase investment in intelligent computing, and the construction of domestic computing power is expected to accelerate. (Hashrate)
More than 40 cities across the country have phased out the lower limit of the interest rate on the first home loan. (Real Estate)
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of March, a total of 3.647 million 5G base stations had been built across the country, and the penetration rate of 5G users exceeded 60%. （5G）
Car sales in the European Union fell by the most in 16 months in March, and Tesla's new car registrations in the EU fell by 30%. (Automotive)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.30, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index: P/E ratio of 20.94, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 26.69, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 42.97, undervaluation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 11.86, undervaluation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.35, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 22.15, undervaluation.
【Plate Analysis】
Low-altitude economy and military industry: Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four major departments jointly issued a new policy on promoting the development of low-altitude economy, which has depicted a new development blueprint for the continental aviation field, especially the general aviation industry. According to the policy guidance, we can gain insight into the huge investment value of the aviation segment in the future military sector.
First of all, the power system of general aviation will usher in an innovation and upgrade. The policy emphasizes that electrification will become the main direction, which means that the research and development and application of new energy in general aviation power technology and equipment will enter the fast lane, and enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the relevant industrial chain are expected to benefit a lot. Investors can pay attention to those military-themed funds that are actively deploying electric aviation power and have core technology research and development capabilities to grasp the investment opportunities brought by this trend.
Secondly, the advancement of standardization and modularization will have a far-reaching impact on the airborne equipment, mission system and its supporting equipment industry. This indicates a significant increase in productivity in this field, as well as a reduction in overall costs and competitiveness. For investment, those military enterprises or thematic funds that focus on the R&D and production of standardized and modular technologies may release greater growth potential due to industrial upgrading.
In addition, the state plans to build an integrated and innovative industrial ecological chain in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, Chengdu-Chongqing, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Shaanxi, so as to realize the deep integration and development of general aviation and the local economy. This initiative will strongly promote the overall prosperity of the aviation industry chain in the region, and also provide investors with the opportunity to share the dividends of the rapid development of the low-altitude economy through the layout of military-themed funds in these regions.
Based on the above policy directions, investors interested in the military sector can focus on those military-themed funds that focus on aviation power technology innovation, equipment manufacturing standardization and modular reform, and actively participate in the construction of key regional industrial clusters, so as to grasp the investment opportunities brought by low-altitude economic development in a timely manner.
【Strategy Sharing】
Today's pick-up: None.
Get off today: None.
Ready to get on the bus: CSI Environmental Protection, 800 Pharmaceutical, Hong Kong Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, S&P 500, S&P Biologics, China General Internet, Vietnam market, Indian market.
Ready to get off: Fundamentals 50, Bonus Opportunities, Infrastructure Projects, China Securities Bank, The Belt and Road.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.