After the Lakers and 76ers successfully won the play-offs, there were two more groups of playoff matchups. I've been blinded by the results of the first four groups (see), there is no game today, and there is a wave of Lakers against the Nuggets.
The Lakers have not won against the Nuggets since December 2022, and the Lakers have not won one of the three games this season, so the Lakers have lost eight consecutive games against the Nuggets. Although the lineups of both sides have changed slightly since last year's Western Conference Finals, their basic structures have not changed, and this year's first round can still be regarded as a continuation of last year's Western Conference Finals.
The Lakers were swept in the Western Conference finals, but the average point difference in the four games was only six points. In the regular season this season, the Lakers' lineup in the first two games has not been stable, the most representative is the last game in early March this year, although there is a historical moment when James scored more than 40,000 points, but what makes them remember more is the last five minutes of the game.
The Lakers actually led 110-108 in the last 4 minutes and 11 seconds of that game, but the Nuggets went on a 9-0 run, and the Lakers were helpless for two minutes, and by the time they reacted, the game had already been lost.
West 2-7 Nuggets vs Lakers
Regular season Nuggets 3-0 Projected Lakers 4-2
It can't be said that the Lakers' lineup changes throughout the season are aimed at the Nuggets, but they must use the Nuggets as the highest benchmark, especially in the outside defense, bringing in Dinwiddie, Reddish and Vincent are all to resolve Murray's offensive advantage. Vincent's comeback at the end of the season, especially against the Pelicans, turned the tide in the second quarter and boosted the Lakers' confidence.
The Nuggets have been very stable, with no changes to the starting lineup, but the bench has made a big change, letting go of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, rewarding them for going out and making money, using young Payton Watson, Braun and Nagy, and having experienced Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday on the bench.
Boss Calvin Booth bluntly said that the purpose of this change is to allow the Nuggets to have a long-term development, rather than relying on veteran mercenaries. He also apparently admits that young players will be at higher risk in the playoffs than veterans. For the Lakers, the Nuggets' rotation is certainly one of the breakthroughs they are looking for.
However, the idea of the team is that the squad must be tall, the young players are also up and down two meters, and the defense is active and fierce, so don't pin your hopes on the breakthrough of the rotation lineup, because in the end, you have to enter the final five minutes of the decisive battle, when you must face an experienced and tacit starting lineup.
James has long pointed out that the reason why the Nuggets can't win is in the last five minutes, the opponent plays rigorously, has no loopholes, and executes efficiently, while the Lakers' game plan is not as effective as the Nuggets.
There must be a fatal reason why the Lakers don't win the Nuggets in a row. There are three things the Lakers need to do: first, find out the key reason, second, adjust the defensive philosophy, and third, grasp the details of the final five minutes.
Last year's Western Conference finals, Jokic averaged a triple-double against the Lakers, and it can be said that the Lakers are in a dilemma on how to defend Jokic. At that time, the design was to let Hachimura defend Jokic, trying to delay his decision one-on-one. In order to avoid Davis from fouling too much, keep him from facing Jokic, but be prepared to protect the basket at the end.
In a sense, it's also a kind of "both want and want" — trying to protect Davis and keep Jokic at the same time, but nothing is done.
I think the most critical reason why the Lakers can't beat the Nuggets is that they want to help defend Jokic. As long as you want Davis to help defend, there must be a problem of timing, early he will pass the ball, and late he will let him score. And Jokic's realm lies in the grasp of timing.
It seems to be a proposition to choose one out of two cups of poison, but it is not. Jokic is not Embiid: first, he is not greedy for scoring, only 3 40+ games this season, second, he does not necessarily win with high scores, losing 4 of the 8 games with more than 35 points in the regular season, third, he has fewer three-pointers, 83% of two-point shots, and fourth, scoring high points will consume his physical strength more. If Jokic's high score isn't poison, let him score.
From 30 to 35 points, it was the most comfortable game Jokic played, and the Nuggets went 17-3 in 20 games this season. The Lakers have to find a way to focus more scoring opportunities on Jokic instead of letting him lead Porter Jr., Gordon, and Caldwell-Pope to score.
The last four or five minutes of the game where James scored 40,000 points most typically reflected the Nuggets' style of play, and the Lakers always remembered Jokic's offensive threat, but were beaten 9-0 climax.
For example, in the following ball, Hachimura did not move Jokic and let him go deep into the hinterland. Originally, Davis was against Gordon and Reeves was against the boss of the Huo family, but Davis saw that Hachimura couldn't stand it, so he let go of Gordon to help defend him, and Reeves was forced to switch to Gordon, who was closer to the basket. Jokic always had to find someone to pass, and he could only pass to Huo Boss, and as a result, he hit a three-point shot.
With the Lakers' defense this time, the Nuggets will definitely score, and the difference is whether to score two points or three. The Lakers' selection order is not to let Jokic score two points, not let Gordon score two points, and let Huo Boss shoot three points, because the three-point shooting percentage is the lowest, and it may not score.
I think that's the philosophy that the Lakers have to change, and in the first round of this year, they'd rather let Jokic score two points than let the Nuggets blossom on all sides. In the three regular season meetings this year, the Nuggets made 39 three-pointers, higher than the season average of 11.7, and last year's Western Conference finals were even more outrageous, with the Nuggets making 58 three-pointers in four games, averaging 14.5. In fact, the Nuggets shot fewer three-pointers, the lowest in the league.
What kind of scene did Jokic score two points? It was the following ball, Hachimura was dead, but Davis didn't let go of his own people. Let Jokic score 40 points, 50 points, but let him have only five or six assists.
In addition to playing Hachimura's height and technical advantages, Jokic will often face misalignments after screen changes, and his advantages are even more obvious. At this time, the Lakers should also adhere to a philosophy, let him shoot, not help defense, because the same two points, high-quality passing and cooperation are more demoralizing.
Another reason why the Lakers can't beat the Nuggets is Murray, who has reached 30+ three times in the four Western Conference finals, averaging 32.5 points. But none of the three meetings this season has Murray reached 30 points.
Therefore, the Lakers are also adjusting, especially the defensive options on the outside are more reserved. The defensive principle of Murray is also based on one-on-one, and he can be appropriately placed to attack in the two-point shooting area.
However, as long as the Lakers want and want, they will compromise on the details. For example, in the following ball, Reddish was blocked by a high-quality screen, and Davis was originally ready to protect the basket, but suddenly remembered that there was Jokic behind him, and as soon as he turned around, his basket was gone.
The Nuggets' hard power is definitely much better than the Lakers, but to say that the Lakers have no chance at all, I don't believe that at least the Lakers will not be swept.
The Lakers have several implicit advantages: first, since the Nuggets have won 8 in a row, they will treat the Lakers with contempt; second, the Nuggets are in the open, and the Lakers are in the dark; third, the Lakers' changes are aimed at the Nuggets' advantages, and the Nuggets' changes are for their own long-term development.
Therefore, the pessimistic estimate is that the Lakers will be eliminated 1-4, the reasonable estimate is that they will be eliminated 2-4, and the optimistic estimate is that the Lakers will advance 4-2.
Playing seven games is definitely not good for the Lakers, there is no home court, and James is so old.