Source: Insights & Discovery
Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the original author, if there is a source error or infringement of your legitimate rights and interests, you can contact us, we will deal with it in time.
Oil prices "plummeted overnight", and the second drop in oil prices this year may really come......
In the domestic refined oil market, a few days ago, gasoline and diesel prices rose by 200 yuan and 195 yuan / ton, domestic 92 / 95 gasoline and 0 diesel generally rose 0.16 ~ 0.19 yuan / liter, the cumulative increase in oil prices during the year was nearly 0.7 yuan / liter, the mainstream 92 gasoline quotation of gas stations in various provinces and cities rose to about 8.1 ~ 8.4 yuan / liter, in some areas, 92 gasoline rose into the "9 yuan era" ......
However, with the arrival of a new round of oil price adjustment cycle, at 24 o'clock on April 30, the 9th oil price adjustment of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices may be expected to fall!
It is understood that by the previous international oil price fall, on April 17, WTI and Brent crude oil fell by more than 3% in a single day, entering a new round of pricing cycle, in the first 2 working days of the end, the rate of change of crude oil was -1.19%, and the price of gasoline and diesel fell by 75 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to the price of 92/95 gasoline is estimated to fall by 6~7 points / liter, and oil prices are in the stage of falling adjustment!
However, from a rational point of view, the global geopolitical tension is still continuing, and the continuation of strict production cuts by oil-producing countries and the imminent entry of crude oil consumption into the peak season have all given certain support to the market!
Therefore, whether this round of oil prices can be smoothly lowered, is still facing uncertain factors, the author will continue to pay attention to the changes in the market, and make predictions for you in a timely manner! The following is the 92/95 gasoline price of gas stations in various provinces and cities on April 19, for reference only!
At the same time, in terms of domestic agricultural products, in the pig and wheat markets, pig prices maintain a low and weak pattern, and the prices are slowly declining, while in the wheat market, the decline in wheat prices is slowing down, but the rise still lacks obvious support! The specific analysis is as follows:
In the fattening pig market, since the Qingming holiday, the domestic pig price has not stopped, the market continues to move sideways and lower, on April 19, the pig price fell to 14.93 yuan / kg, compared with yesterday's decline of only 0.02 yuan, the national north and south markets, the northern region, pig prices are mainly stable and weak, and the southern market is mainly sideways!
On the one hand, the consumption follow-up is relatively cold, the good has not yet emerged, the market demand for fat white strips is not good, the big fat market is gradually weakening, the northeast region, the price of big fat has been reduced by about 1 yuan, which also causes the price spread of standard fat pigs to narrow, the upside down performance in some areas is becoming more and more obvious, the risk of the market pressure bar pigs has increased sharply, the breeding end of the subscription mentality is strong, and the circulation of pigs is relatively positive; on the other hand, the end of the month consumption or will usher in a "small spring" Boosted by holiday factors, slaughtering orders may increase, the market bullish mentality still exists, and the breeding end of the pig still has a wait-and-see mentality!
However, after entering the second half of April, with the approach of the May Day holiday, the breeding end of the subscription mentality or will be reduced, the sentiment of the price reluctance to sell or will become stronger, the sentiment of the big factory to pull up the slaughter or will heat up, the pig price is still expected to be strong!
In terms of wheat, at present, the wheat market is showing a sideways trend, the mainstream wheat producing areas, the listed price of milling enterprises is stable, and the sporadic quotation has a narrow range of 0.3~0.5 cents/catty, and the domestic mainstream wheat listing price is 1.33~1.37 yuan/catty, and the market continues to grind the bottom!
At present, in terms of wheat demand, due to the rising temperature, the weather is getting hotter, the demand for flour consumption has deteriorated, and the downstream traders are cautious in replenishing the demand, in particular, the difficulty of flour storage has increased, and the downstream market is mainly based on rigid procurement, and the purchase and sale of flour is relatively deserted; About tons, the performance of bran shipments is average, although the operating rate of enterprises has recovered, and the production capacity of bran has declined, but by the downturn in the corn market, the price of soybean meal is low, and the bran shipment is general, and the by-products of mainstream milling enterprises are facing the pressure of certain losses!
In terms of wheat supply, the grassroots surplus grain is exhausted, and the channel inventory is also decreasing, however, the domestic grain depots at all levels and the grain storage rotation is relatively positive, this week, although the grain storage listing plan has decreased, however, the supply pressure still exists, the demand follow-up is relatively cold, the policy wheat transaction performance deviation, some areas, the phenomenon of unsold will still be obvious!
Therefore, based on the poor follow-up of market demand, the supply of wheat is relatively loose, the operating rate of enterprises is low, the demand for raw grain replenishment is relatively restrained, and the price of wheat remains stable and weak! However, at the end of the month, supported by the festival, the purchase and sale of short-term flour may improve, the orders of milling enterprises will increase, the demand for wheat replenishment may increase, and the price may have the opportunity to rebound for a short time, however, the positive support is relatively limited, and the market still needs to pay attention to the performance of policy wheat rotation and the expected changes in the new wheat production, in particular, pay attention to the impact of the scab season on the growth of wheat in the producing areas!