Source: 21st Century Business Herald
21st Century Business Herald reporter Wu Shuying reported from Guangzhou
The tide of "trade-in" of consumer goods is slowly kicking off, and the real estate industry is also moving in tandem.
Recently, many cities in China have launched the "old for new" housing policy. Since 2023, more than 30 cities across the country have expressed their support for "trade-in", including Zhengzhou in Henan, Liangxi District in Wuxi, Jiangsu, Hai'an, Jiangsu, and Changshu in Jiangsu. At present, the first-tier cities have not officially expressed their position, but some real estate companies in Shenzhen have also "rubbed on the hot spots" and played the concept of "exchanging the old for the new".
The "trade-in" policy of housing is usually the acquisition of second-hand housing by the government-designated platform as the acquisition body, and its purpose is to open up the transaction chain of first-hand and second-hand housing and release the demand for improved housing. The market expects that this policy will help the real estate market recover.
As this policy is still testing the waters and in its infancy, and the number of second-hand houses purchased by the government is still at a low level, it remains to be seen how the market will react to this policy.
The official buyout
Among the cities that have introduced the "old for the new" policy, Zhengzhou's action plan is relatively complete.
On April 15, Zhengzhou City issued an announcement on the pilot work of "selling the old and buying the new, exchanging the old for the new" for second-hand housing, announcing that the pilot work will be officially launched on April 20. Zhengzhou's "trade-in" pilot will have two models: one is the acquisition of second-hand housing by Zhengzhou Chengfa Anju Co., Ltd., the acquisition subject designated by the Zhengzhou Municipal Government, to promote the masses to purchase improved new commercial housing, and the other is for the masses to achieve "selling the old and buying the new, exchanging the old for the new" through market transactions.
According to the announcement, Zhengzhou plans to acquire 500 second-hand houses in the pilot stage, and Zhengzhou plans to complete the acquisition of 5,000 second-hand houses throughout this year.
Zhengzhou also stipulates that the basic conditions for the acquisition of housing must be that it is located in Jinshui District and Zhengdong New District and is located within the Third Ring Road, that it must be an ordinary commercial housing in nature, that it has obtained a real estate certificate or real estate ownership certificate, and that it has not been more than 15 years since the date of completion of the house, that the building area of the house does not exceed 120 square meters, and that the house does not have any restrictions on seizure.
The newly built commercial housing purchased by the people who change houses in the pilot stage must be "existing houses" that have obtained the record certificate of housing completion acceptance, and the houses are located within the main urban area of Zhengzhou City.
In addition to Zhengzhou, Hai'an in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, is also launching a policy of "trade-in" housing. Haian plans to implement 100 sets of "old for new" this year, and up to now, more than 400 groups have been registered for the event, 15 sets have been sold, and 23 sets are being inspected and evaluated.
This is a case of "trade-in" housing that was officially bought and purchased in person. In Shenzhen, some real estate companies have cooperated with intermediaries to launch the concept of "trade-in" to promote the sales of first-hand houses.
On April 18, according to the official WeChat news of Shenzhen Leyoujia, Leyoujia cooperated with LVGEM Real Estate's project "LVGEM Baishizhou" to pilot the promotion of the new model of "trade-in" real estate in Shenzhen, and completed the transaction of stock houses and the rotation cycle with new houses. According to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, customers who intend to exchange houses can lock the intended houses for 2 months by paying a deposit in LVGEM Baishizhou, during which Leyoujia will focus on promoting old houses, assist in selling old houses as soon as possible and signing contracts, and complete the "old for new" transaction.
This is actually a "promotion model", and it is not uncommon in the Shenzhen real estate market. Last year, intermediaries such as Zhongyuan and Lianjia also launched similar activities. However, whether this "trade-in" method can finally open up the transaction chain of first-hand and second-hand housing depends on the choice of the market. "The final effect has to be observed again, the inventory of second-hand houses in Shenzhen is very high, and intermediaries and real estate companies have this expectation. A person in the Shenzhen real estate market told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
Unblock transaction blockages
One of the big backgrounds of "trade-in" is that the second-hand housing transactions across the country have gradually become the mainstream.
According to the statistics of the China Index Institute, as of March 31, the number of second-hand housing transactions in key cities has increased month-on-month for 6 consecutive weeks; according to the monitoring of the Shell Research Institute, since the beginning of this year, the second-hand housing transactions in the 50 key cities of Shell have continued to repair upward, and the prices of some cities and products have stopped falling or even risen slightly.
In addition, according to the monitoring of open source securities, as of the end of March, the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in 64 cities across the country this year has decreased by 44% year-on-year, while the cumulative transaction area of second-hand housing in 17 cities across the country has narrowed to about 20% year-on-year.
Taking Shenzhen as an example, according to the statistics of the Shenzhen Housing Association, in March this year, the number of second-hand houses in Shenzhen reached 5,196, an increase of 116.6% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, breaking through the 5,000 sets of industry boom and wither line. This is also the first time in 3 years that the monthly online signing volume in Shenzhen has exceeded 5,000 sets again.
In an environment where the transaction trend of second-hand housing and first-hand housing diverges, "trade-in" is also a feasible strategy to drive the market of first-hand housing through the transaction of second-hand housing.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, believes that it is difficult to decentralize new houses in the near future, which is to a certain extent related to the poor circulation of "buy one and sell one" to improve sexual demand. "The second-hand houses in the hands of the housing replacement group cannot be sold, resulting in insufficient funds to achieve 'buy one'. The state has repeatedly emphasized the need to promote a virtuous cycle of real estate, and when it is difficult to achieve the self-circulation of the market, various localities have begun to dredge the channels for changing houses and launched the policy of 'exchanging the old for the new'. ”
At present, Zhengzhou's cases of the acquisition of second-hand houses by the government-designated platform are still advancing, and it remains to be seen whether the final effect will be obvious.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that although many regions have put forward the policy orientation of "exchanging the old for the new", they are still in the stage of policy exploration, and the overall effect is not yet obvious.
Chen Wenjing's analysis believes that "from the current main way, the intermediary preferential sales model is mainly facing the second-hand housing market adjustment pressure, 'trade-in' buyers even through the intermediary priority promotion, but want to quickly close the deal also need to give certain concessions in terms of price; ”
"In addition, due to multiple factors, buyers are in a wait-and-see mood, and they are more cautious in buying off-plan housing, which also affects the effect of the 'trade-in' policy to a certain extent. Chen Wenjing continued.