The full article can be found in >> "link"
In 2023, the export of the "new three" represented by solar cells, electric manned vehicles and lithium batteries will break the trillion yuan mark for the first time, an increase of nearly 30%. At this Canton Fair, the new energy exhibition area still attracted the attention of a large number of domestic and foreign buyers.
In the 15.3 area of Hall C of the Canton Fair, as far as the eye can see, a variety of photovoltaic module products appear in the booths of various companies, among which TOPCon technology appears relatively frequently. In the communication, Silver Persimmon Finance found that "price fall" and "involution" in the industry are the most frequently mentioned words by photovoltaic practitioners, but at the same time, everyone remains optimistic about the prospects of the photovoltaic industry.
The industry is "involuted", the price is down, and the willingness to place orders is reduced
In recent years, under the background of the "dual carbon" goal, the photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly. According to data released by the National Energy Administration, in 2023, the mainland will add 216.88GW of new photovoltaic capacity, a year-on-year increase of 148.1%. Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, previously said that China's photovoltaic industry in 2023 will be mixed.
"At present, the entire industry is facing falling prices and involution in major markets, and customers will be more cautious in selecting suppliers and are not willing to place orders. Zhejiang Gongyuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Gongyuan New Energy") sales director Mou Minyao told Silver Persimmon Finance, "In the first two years, the European market and the South American market are relatively prosperous markets, but since last year, the European market has seen a high inventory, resulting in products have been falling prices, in addition to Brazil is also facing a backlog of local inventory, but it is relatively better than Europe." ”
It is reported that AD New Energy is mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of solar photovoltaic series products and energy-saving and environmental protection products in the field of new energy, of which solar photovoltaic series products mainly include solar photovoltaic modules, photovoltaic power generation systems, photovoltaic building integration, etc. Recently, the company also said in its reply to the review inquiry letter of the Beijing Stock Exchange that the company's overall sales in the European market in 2023 will still maintain growth compared with 2022, but the company's overall sales amount in the European market will decline slightly due to the decline in the market price of photovoltaic modules.
Yu Yajuan, marketing manager of Herun Power Technology (Wuxi) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Herun Power"), also said frankly: "In the past two years, the impact of raw material price reduction on the module industry is relatively large. "Flush iFinD data shows that in recent years, the price of mainstream PV modules has fallen from a maximum of more than 2 yuan/W at the end of 2021 to less than 1 yuan/W now, a range decline of more than 50%. "This year's price is expected to be good, but at present, the pressure of this price competition is still very high, and in terms of the overall market, a number of module factories will be eliminated this year. ”
Hua Chuang Securities pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the average price of domestic module bids has fluctuated downward. According to Zhihui Solar, on April 12, Huadian Group released the bid opening of the first batch of centralized procurement projects for photovoltaic modules in 2024, of which the lowest price for N-type was 0.81 yuan/W and the lowest price for P-type was 0.756 yuan/W, both hitting new lows this year. As prices of polysilicon and wafers continue to decline, module makers may bid at lower prices to secure orders in order to clear their inventories as soon as possible to avoid further losses.
Differentiated and customized services to meet customer needs
In the face of the "price war" in the industry, some companies choose to get involved, while some companies choose differentiated and customized services to meet customer needs by improving quality. "The competition for conventional products is indeed very fierce, and we still hope to launch differentiated module products according to different market needs, improve conversion efficiency, and also provide customers with some customized components, hoping to strive for more in the market segment," said Mou. ”
Regarding the involution of the industry, Yu Yajuan said: "We still want to control the quality, so we don't fight a price war." According to her, 90% of Herun Power are foreign customers, and the module products produced by the company are mainly exported to the European market. "We can't fight for price, we can only fight for quality. She said that the "price war" will affect the quality of products, which in turn will affect the image of the module industry.
Remain optimistic about the outlook for the industry
At present, although many photovoltaic companies reflect that the competitive pressure is relatively large, everyone is still optimistic about the future development trend of the industry.
The booth staff of Zhejiang Shengtai New Energy Co., Ltd. told Silver Persimmon Finance: "Now the entire photovoltaic industry is quite rolling, and the competitive pressure is relatively large, but the industry is a good industry after all, and the market demand is still there." It is reported that the company has production bases in Jiaxing and Taizhou, with an annual production capacity of 2,400MW photovoltaic module production lines. Mou Minyao also said: "In fact, there is still demand in overseas markets, but the price is not easy to rise at present. In addition, a number of exhibitors said that the photovoltaic industry is still on an upward trend and are optimistic about the prospects of the industry.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in January, the export value of battery modules was 21.701 billion yuan, down 22.9% year-on-year and up 30.1% month-on-month, and in February, the export value of battery modules was 19.880 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year and 8.4% month-on-month. Minsheng Securities pointed out that considering the decline in module prices, module exports increased by more than 40% year-on-year in January ~ February, and PV module exports picked up.
Recently, data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that in the first two months of this year, the output of crystalline silicon modules in mainland China was 76GW, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, and the export volume reached 40.1GW, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and the total export value of photovoltaic products exceeded 6.2 billion US dollars, and the photovoltaic industry continued to operate at a high level.
In the context of the global energy transition, the development potential of the photovoltaic industry is huge. At the end of 2023, more than 100 countries agreed at the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) to triple the global installed renewable energy capacity to at least 11,000GW by 2030, of which PV capacity will increase from 1,055GW in 2022 to 5,457GW in 2030.