Recently, the US military announced that it has deployed a "strategic medium-range firepower system" on the Philippine island of Luzon, which is compatible with a variety of medium-range missiles, including the "Standard-6 missile with a range of about 370 km" and the "Tomahawk" missile with a range of 1,500 km. In terms of range, these two missiles will cover at least five islands and reefs in China, including Mischief, Subi, Fiery Cross, Woody and Hainan Island, posing a certain threat to China's national security. With the "help" of US missiles, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos "greatly increased his confidence" and said that the US military bases in the Philippines were designed to deal with "some problems in the direction of the South China Sea," and the threats between his words were full of meaning.
Against the backdrop of US President Joe Biden's sparing no effort to assure China and sending senior officials to visit China, the deployment of missiles by the US military around the South China Sea to deter China is not only a flagrant violation of the consensus reached by the heads of state of China and the United States, but also raises the risk of a military conflict between China and the United States. To a certain extent, the Biden administration's political control over the United States, especially the military, is declining, and correspondingly, not long ago, Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, issued a war provocation against China, saying that once a Philippine sailor or soldier is killed in a conflict in the South China Sea, the United States will act in accordance with the "U.S.-Philippines Defense Treaty"; If the US side bases itself on the "tough on China" strategy, the US military will deliver missiles to the Philippines, which does not rule out the possibility of creating "bargaining chips" and "negotiating advantages" in the South China Sea on the eve of US Secretary of State Blinken's visit to China.
On the one hand, the military confrontation between Iran and Israel has not come to an end, Israel is still considering retaliating against Iran, and the crisis of the United States falling into the quagmire of the Middle East has not yet been resolved. On the other hand, if the U.S.-China election is approaching, if the U.S.-China relationship is unstable, it will have an adverse impact on Biden's re-election, and if Biden wants to use war to prevent the transition of government, the stakes will be the national fortunes of the United States in the coming decades.
At present, the contradictions between the Marcos family and the Duterte family are being made public, and if Marcos does not handle relations with China well, it will provide an excellent point of attack for former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Recently, Duterte has "started fighting", saying that he is sad about the deterioration of Sino-Philippine relations and wants to have a direct dialogue with Chinese officials, and in response to the current South China Sea issue, Duterte has made his position clear, saying that "the South China Sea was originally very calm, but after the Americans came, it was full of quarrels." Duterte's grasp of the situation is very precise, and as early as last year he issued a war warning, saying that if a conflict between China and the United States broke out, the Philippines could be used as a transit point, and if a third world war broke out, the Philippines could be involved.
Duterte's prediction is not groundless, China has recently issued an ultimatum saying that it will not allow the Philippines to act recklessly in the South China Sea, and if the Marcos administration insists on undermining peace, then the PLA will resolutely respond and vigorously counterattack.