Genshin
Recently, as the mainland's population development has shown trend characteristics such as declining birthrate and aging population, the outside world has taken advantage of this to sing the tone of China's economic decline. One argument is that Chinese society will face the dilemma of "growing old before getting rich", and the problem of population aging will hinder China's development process. This sentence has two layers of logical misalignment, and it is far-fetched and inappropriate. First of all, both "old" and "rich" are dynamic processes. From a dynamic point of view, the process of population aging in the mainland is precisely met with rapid economic and social growth and high-quality development, and the mainland society presents the characteristics of "getting rich quickly with old age". Second, what is the "dilemma" of "growing old before getting rich", generally speaking, refers to the insufficient accumulation of wealth in the country and society, the imperfect social security system, and the lack of preparation for an aging society. In fact, with the gradual improvement of the level of economic development, the mainland has gradually formed a multi-level, multi-pillar new old-age insurance system including basic old-age insurance, enterprise supplementary old-age insurance and individual savings old-age insurance, as well as a well-functional, moderately large-scale, covering urban and rural pension service system.
Population ageing is a worldwide problem
Population ageing is a global problem, and its impact on human society is profound and long-lasting. Globally, slowing population growth and population ageing are not unique to China. On November 15, 2022, the world's population reached 8 billion. It took about 12 years for the global population to grow from 7 billion to 8 billion, and about 15 years (by 2037) to go from 8 billion to 9 billion, suggesting that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing. The global population is ageing, and most countries in the world are increasing in number and proportion of older people. According to the World Population Prospects 2022 released by the United Nations, the proportion of people over 65 years of age has grown faster than that of people under 65, and by 2050, the proportion of people aged 65 and over is expected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16%.
In the case of China. Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of the economy and society, longevity and low birthrate have been superimposed, and the resulting regular result is the aging of the population. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2000, the elderly population aged 65 and above in mainland China was 88 million, and the aging level was 7.0%, entering an aging society, and in 2022, the number of this group increased to 210 million, and the aging level reached 14.9%, entering a moderately aging society. According to the latest population forecast of the United Nations, the aging of the mainland's population will further deepen, with the elderly population and the aging level of 315 million and 22.5% respectively in 2035, and 395 million and 30.1% in 2050, entering a super-aging society. General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly pointed out that the mainland is one of the countries with a relatively high degree of population aging in the world, with the largest number of elderly people, the fastest aging rate, and the heaviest task of coping with population aging. Meeting the multifaceted needs of a large number of elderly people and properly solving the social problems brought about by the aging of the population are related to the overall development of the country and the well-being of the people, and we need to make great efforts to deal with them.
Promote the whole society to move towards "fast prosperity".
The improvement of the level of economic development and the improvement of residents' income are the basic guarantees for actively coping with the aging society. "Old" is the law of population development and an objective reality that we need to face, while "rich" can be rapidly improved in high-quality economic development. In 1978, the mainland's total GDP was only 367.9 billion yuan, ranking 11th in the world; in 2000, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan, rising to the sixth place in the world; in 2010, it exceeded 40 trillion yuan, becoming the world's second largest economy; in 2023, it will exceed 126 trillion yuan, accounting for about 18 percent of the world's total economic output; in recent years, the mainland's average annual contribution to world economic growth has exceeded 30 percent, and it has always been the biggest engine for world economic growth.
With the continuous enhancement of its comprehensive economic strength and the continuous improvement of the people's living standards, the mainland has successfully stepped from a low-income country to an upper-middle-income country. The per capita disposable income of residents was 171 yuan in 1978, exceeded 10,000 yuan in 2009, exceeded 20,000 yuan in 2014, and reached 39,218 yuan in 2023. According to data from the World Bank, China's per capita gross national income (GNI) increased from US$230 in 1978 to US$940 in 2000, and the problem of food and clothing for the rural population was basically solved, and in 2021 it increased to US$11,950, building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, solving the problem of absolute poverty, and making the mainland one one of the middle- and high-income countries and moving towards a high-income country. The Human Development Index (HDI), which comprehensively judges the level of national development, has risen from 0.499 in 1990 to 0.788 in 2022, ranking 75th in the world, making it the only country to jump from a low level of human development to a high level of human development since the index was first measured in 1990.
The process of population aging is coupled with the current strategic arrangement for promoting Chinese-style modernization. China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth rate of about 9.5% per year during the 40 years of reform and opening up to a new normal of medium-to-high-speed growth of 5%-7% per year, and has shifted to a stage of high-quality development. The main contradiction in society has changed from the contradiction between the people's ever-growing material and cultural needs and backward social production to the contradiction between the people's ever-growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. The comprehensive modernization of the economy and society has consolidated the social wealth reserves in response to the aging of the population, and will create a solid material foundation for the mainland to actively cope with the aging of the population. By expanding the total amount, optimizing the structure, and improving efficiency, we will realize that economic development is compatible with the aging of the population; through the improvement of the national income distribution system, we will optimize the distribution pattern among the government, enterprises, and residents, and steadily increase the reserve of pension wealth. We will improve a fairer and more sustainable social security system, continue to improve the well-being of all people, and promote the whole society to move towards "quick prosperity".
The social security system has been arranged from existing to excellent
The social security system is an important means to promote economic growth and the improvement of residents' income level, and the social security capacity, social security intensity and social security degree are the strong support for "getting rich quickly". The social security in mainland China has undergone comprehensive and profound institutional reforms, and has achieved the development goal of moving from partial coverage to the well-being of the whole people, which not only reflects the continuous improvement of people's livelihood and welfare and the continuous expansion of social rights and interests, but also reflects the overall economic and social development and development progress. At present, social security such as pension insurance, medical insurance, social assistance, pension services, and long-term care insurance for urban and rural residents has basically been integrated, and the framework of the welfare system shared by the whole people has taken shape.
By the end of 2023, 1.066 billion people will participate in the basic pension insurance nationwide, basically realizing the full coverage of the insurance, and establishing a multi-pillar and multi-level basic pension insurance system structure. From 2005 to 2023, the state has raised the pension standard for the retired elderly 19 times in a row according to the economic and social development situation. By the end of 2023, about 1.334 billion people will be insured by basic medical insurance, and the coverage will remain stable at more than 95%. Based on the horizontal coverage of the two major systems of basic medical insurance for urban employees and basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents, and supplemented by the vertical extension of the six major policies of large medical expense subsidy, supplementary medical insurance, serious illness insurance, long-term care insurance, medical assistance, and medical insurance assistance, the "2+6" medical security system has been completed. From its launch in 2016 to 2022, the long-term care insurance pilot has been expanded to 49 cities, with 170 million insured people, 7,679 designated service institutions, and 331,000 nursing service personnel, providing protection for the dignified life of the disabled and semi-disabled elderly. By the end of 2023, there will be 41,000 elderly care institutions and 8.201 million elderly care service beds. In terms of social assistance, in 2023, 40.63 million people will enjoy the minimum livelihood security benefits, 4.35 million people will receive assistance for people living in extreme poverty in rural areas, and 7.42 million people will receive temporary assistance.
Economic growth and social security promote each other, and social security, as the basic institutional arrangement to ensure people's livelihood, has developed from a simple people's livelihood guarantee to an important mechanism that can support economic growth for a long time, with the sustained and rapid growth of the national economy and the increase of government investment, so that more development achievements can benefit people's livelihood. Social security has the function of secondary distribution, which directly increases the immediate income of urban and rural residents through transfer payments, directly reduces or even eliminates the worries of urban and rural residents in pension, medical care, poverty, unemployment, natural and man-made disasters, etc., and then reduces their savings and asset allocation to cope with future life risks, comprehensively improves people's well-being, realizes a more equitable redistribution of social wealth, and promotes common prosperity. This has not only enhanced residents' confidence in consumption, but also improved residents' consumption capacity, promoted consumption growth and consumption upgrading, and provided a lasting impetus for the mainland's economic development and helped the whole people to "get rich quickly".
In summary, population aging is the basic law of human social development, and the aging of the Chinese population is and will continue to change all aspects of the country's economy and society, such as population structure, economic form, social security, residents' health and urban-rural disparity. "Old" and "Rich" in Chinese Society On the one hand, the mainland's economic development started from a low starting point of insufficient food and clothing, and on the basis of a huge population base and structural aging, it has taken off rapidly, from a low-income country to a middle- and high-income country, the people's living standards have been significantly improved, the level of demand has improved, the quality of the population has improved, and it has entered the era of information and intelligence, the gap between the level of economic and social development and that of developed countries has narrowed rapidly, and leapfrogging economic development is a miracle that has been realized and the road to the future, and Chinese society is moving towards "quick prosperity" On the other hand, the comprehensive completion of a high-quality social security system with Chinese characteristics and the improvement of the catch-up social system are the self-confidence of China's development, which will not only be able to continuously improve the well-being of all the people and effectively ensure the steady improvement of the quality of people's livelihood, but also promote the sustained, coordinated and healthy development of the entire economy and society, making it a more solid and perfect institutional guarantee for the prosperity and strength of the country, the rejuvenation of the nation and the happiness of the people. (The author is a professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University and director of the Center for Aging Development Strategy of Nankai University).