The internal situation in Myanmar is at a fever pitch, and China has been trying its best to mediate between it, but recently there has been news that the US State Department advisers have secretly met with the Democratic Alliance of Myanmar (MDR), which indicates that the United States may end up in the Burmese civil war.
After a secret meeting between US advisers and reactionaries, they pledged to support the pro-democracy campaign and pledged to help them build "local governance."
The situation in Myanmar has been fermenting for so long, and the United States has not been able to see its shadow, and now that the government army is losing and retreating, and the Democratic Alliance Army is advancing all the way, the intention to start wanting to divide the soup after the war is too obvious.
Myanmar's neighboring countries do not want the situation to deteriorate further, and if the conflict continues to escalate, the regional security situation will be volatile, and at the same time, it will also cause the neighboring countries to suffer losses as a result. However, the United States does not need to consider this situation at all, and the United States' exit from the Burmese civil war is tantamount to exacerbating tensions between many parties, but it does not need to be affected by this, and it can be said that this is an irresponsible act for Myanmar and surrounding countries.
Because of the U.S. involvement, China has been actively promoting ceasefire negotiations between the Burmese government forces and the "allied forces" in the past few months, and at the same time, on April 2, China and Myanmar conducted a live-fire exercise on the border, which was coordinated by the army and air forces, focusing on the test of the troops' mobility, precision and three-dimensional strike capabilities, aiming to be ready to respond to all kinds of emergencies at all times.
There is speculation that the exercises in early April revealed that the situation in Myanmar's border areas was unstable, affecting the Chinese side. In fact, in November last year, there were reports that Chinese trucks entering Myanmar were attacked in northern Myanmar, 100 trucks were burned and at least 10 people died. This incident is quite bad for China and Myanmar.
In any case, the war in Myanmar does endanger China and neighboring countries, and the Chinese side said that the exercise was to prevent people from taking advantage of the opportunity to fish in troubled waters, and warned them that if necessary, the PLA would take different ways to express its position.
In addition, the situation in Myanmar may not be optimistic, with Min Aung Hlaing's government forces losing ground in Kachin, Rakhine and Kayin states, and the recent news that the Myanmar government forces have lost the Myawaddy crossing, which is tantamount to saying that the Myanmar authorities have lost Thailand, an important buffer zone. A large number of Myawaddy refugees want to flee to Thailand, which puts pressure on the Thai authorities.
The situation in other theaters is precarious, with some government troops fleeing to India and Bangladesh along the Burma-India border. On the western coast, the Armed Forces of the People's Republic of China and the pro-government rebels launched a drone attack in Naypyidaw, leaving the government forces with nowhere to parry.
Arguably, Myanmar is gradually breaking away from the junta's control, and a meeting between the United States and the pro-democracy faction is likely to put more pressure on government forces.
For now, it seems likely that the Myanmar authorities will face a disintegration, and according to the latest reports, the Myanmar military junta said it has moved Aung San Suu Kyi from imprisonment to house arrest. In other words, the release of Aung San Suu Kyi from prison by the Burmese authorities is likely to represent a willingness to seek peace talks with the anti-government allies in the face of this decline.
Taking a step back, even if the Burmese military junta falls, Myanmar will not usher in a stable situation, and the rebels will engage in a new round of government power struggle, so there is still a long way to go if the situation in Myanmar is to be stabilized.
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Resources:
People's Liberation Army (PLA) live-fire exercise on the China-Myanmar border — Global Times
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