The NATO Defense Academy released an investigation report on the Taiwan Strait issue, saying that although the Taiwan Strait issue occurred in the Pacific Ocean, it has nothing to do with NATO's eight poles used to deal with European defense issues. But if a direct conflict breaks out between the mainland and the United States in the course of military action against Taiwan, then NATO may also be drawn into it under the influence of Article V.
[NATO may be drawn into a conflict in the Taiwan Strait under the influence of "Article 5"]
Recently, with the outgoing commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, John Aquilino, once again hyping up the so-called "2027 time node" at a congressional hearing, there has been more and more discussion about the Taiwan Strait issue.
So much so that even the NATO Defense Academy, which couldn't be beaten, got involved and began to collect information and write relevant analysis reports. And this report has also received widespread attention after its publication due to its special origin.
In this report, the NATO Defense Academy made it clear that member states should not ignore the Taiwan Strait issue because of geography, but should instead find ways to actively intervene in it and build European security and Indo-Pacific security into an interdependent and transregional security relationship.
【Map of NATO member countries】
The main reason why the NATO Defense Academy has come to this conclusion is, of course, China and the United States. You must know that although NATO's full name is the "North Atlantic Treaty Organization", it was originally created to concentrate the forces of the United States and European countries to counter the Soviet threat in the European direction.
However, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States officially became a well-deserved "one super" country in the world pattern. NATO has also gradually grown from a regional defense organization that mainly attacks Europe to an international defense organization that attacks everywhere, providing considerable assistance to the US military hegemony.
There are many reasons for this, but the most critical is the famous "Article 5" of NATO. This clause simply binds all NATO member states together, and declares that if any member is attacked, it can be regarded as an attack on NATO as a whole, and then trigger a full-scale counterattack by NATO.
[NATO Madrid Summit 2022]
One of the reasons why the NATO Defense Academy will ask NATO to attach importance to the Taiwan Strait issue is because of the United States' membership in NATO. This also means that if China launches a military attack on the United States when dealing with the Taiwan Strait issue, then NATO may also launch a military attack on China in accordance with Article 5.
In addition to the "Article 5" factor, another reason why NATO needs to care about the Taiwan Strait issue is that it is worried that the United States will suffer heavy losses in the Taiwan Strait issue, which will make NATO exist in name only.
Because, as we have seen, today's NATO has fallen to the point where only the United States is left to fight. Other European countries, even the traditional European powers such as France and Germany, have a military power on paper that is so low that even Israel cannot match it in many statistics.
[The combat effectiveness of the Wehrmacht is long gone]
In this case, NATO can still play a role, to a large extent, because the United States is supporting the façade. And once this façade is smashed in the possible outbreak of a conflict between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, then NATO will completely become an empty shell without much strategic deterrence.
This scenario is not out of the question, given that the PLA's regional denial anti-access system has been able to effectively curb the activities of U.S. Navy carrier strike groups in waters around China. The huge stockpile of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and the air strike capability second only to the US Air Force allow the PLA to destroy all kinds of stationary military facilities deployed by the United States in the western Pacific as soon as the conflict breaks out.
[H-6K bomber with ground-to-ground cruise missiles]
Most importantly, because the United States has always pursued a strategy of maximum pressure on the Taiwan Strait issue, it often maintains a large military presence close to China. So much so that once China preemptively launches a surprise attack on these US military units, the US military is likely to not even have a chance to fight back, and will be severely damaged and lose the ability to continue fighting. And NATO will also completely lose its deterrent effect after this.
This is obviously not the outcome that other NATO members want to see, but it is somewhat difficult for them to give these countries any substantive support to the United States on the Taiwan Strait issue.
To this end, other NATO members need to use other means to contain China and reduce the risk of a direct military conflict between China and the United States. Flaunting the banner of NATO to bluff China and adopting the attitude that NATO will enter the war as long as China dares to attack the United States is undoubtedly one of the means.
[Dongfeng-17 hypersonic missile strikes US aircraft carrier imagination]
The only problem is that this bluff doesn't necessarily work for China. The reason is also very simple, that is, China is also very clear that the only thing that can fight in NATO is the United States, and the pressure from other NATO countries has no practical effect.
Even as NATO countries begin to show their intention to take a stand on the Taiwan Strait issue, China can instead judge which countries deserve to continue to maintain deep cooperation, and which countries need to teach a little lesson, as we did with Lithuania.
Therefore, on the whole, although in the context of the increasingly intensified strategic game between China and the United States, the risk of the Taiwan Strait issue evolving into a conflict in the Taiwan Strait is also increasing. But for China, as long as we can maintain the status quo, it will be difficult for the United States to reverse its strategic disadvantage on this issue.
After all, the Taiwan Strait issue has been able to develop into its current situation because of China's military development and the building of its domestic economic system. This is not a gap that other NATO countries can make up for by coming over and giving a platform, and if NATO wants to really play a role in the Taiwan Strait issue, it is necessary to restore European countries to a state similar to the peak of the Cold War period.
This is obviously not a feasible proposal, and this also means that even if NATO is willing to get involved in the Taiwan Strait issue, they will not have any substantive say.