In recent years, due to the increasing importance of chips, lithography machines, the core equipment in the chip manufacturing process, have become the focus of attention. And the Dutch lithography machine giant ASML has attracted much attention because of the restrictions of the United States.
Because ASML stands in the upstream of the semiconductor industry chain, even if the global chip situation has declined in the past two years, its performance has basically not been affected. But what I didn't expect was that ASML's performance suddenly exploded recently, so the president publicly stated his position.
Recently, ASML announced its weekly report for the first quarter of 2024, with revenue, net profit and order volume far below market expectations, and the thunder of performance also led to a sharp decline in stock prices, with U.S. stocks plummeting by more than 11% and European stocks falling by more than 6%.
According to the data, ASML's revenue fell 22% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter, and net profit fell 40% quarter-on-quarter.
The key point is that new orders in the first quarter amounted to 3.61 billion euros, well below the consensus of 5.1 billion euros. In the fourth quarter of 2023, orders reached 9.19 billion euros, down by almost two-thirds compared to the first quarter.
And that's not even counting ASML's forecast for second-quarter sales that still falls short of market expectations. You know, ASML is not only the largest company in the Netherlands, but also the largest technology company in Europe by market capitalization, and the only manufacturer in the world to produce EUV.
It can be said that the world's major wafer manufacturers are basically inseparable from it, especially the production of process chips below 7nm, which is inseparable from ASML's EUV lithography machine, and most of the mid-to-high-end immersion DUV lithography machines also come from ASML.
Therefore, ASML's performance has been rising, but even so, ASML still ushered in a sudden explosion in performance.
The reason for this situation is, on the one hand, because of the downward trend of the global chip situation in the past two years, most of the major wafer factories have slowed down the pace of wafer factory expansion, and even the global wafer foundry giant TSMC has postponed the delivery of lithography machines.
On the other hand, the United States continues to expand the restrictions on lithography machines, and after the decline in sales of EUV lithography machines, the demand for DUV lithography machines in the mainland market has increased significantly, and ASML's revenue from the mainland market in the third quarter of last year was as high as 46%.
However, due to the pressure from the United States on the Netherlands, ASML can no longer ship advanced DUVs to Chinese companies starting in 2024.
If ASML hadn't shipped more DUV lithography machines to the mainland market last year, I am afraid that it would be difficult to achieve a rise in performance in 2023. Although it can still ship to Chinese companies, the number of orders has dropped sharply, and the amount of orders has even decreased.
It is understood that in the first quarter, the sales volume of ASML lithography machines fell from 113 units to 66 units, and new orders also fell sharply.
And that's not all, the U.S. side has recently put pressure on the Dutch side again, asking ASML to stop providing after-sales maintenance services for lithography machines to Chinese companies. If this restriction is implemented again, I am afraid that the impact and loss to ASML will be even greater.
Because for whatever reason, not continuing to provide after-sales maintenance of lithography machines is tantamount to a unilateral breach of the commercial contract by ASML. Then, our company has the right to demand the repurchase of the lithography machine, so that ASML can hardly bear it.
However, if we can't accept the repurchase of lithography machines, we can not recognize ASML's lithography machine patents, which will promote the breakthrough of our domestic lithography machines, and maybe we can quickly achieve domestic substitution and occupy ASML's share.
What's more, Shanghai Microelectronics has been tackling advanced lithography machines, and once it is mass-produced and listed, there will be no ASML matter.
Therefore, at the ASML performance analysis meeting, when asked by the media whether it would stop providing after-sales maintenance to Chinese enterprises, the president of ASML said that there is nothing to stop us from providing services for the lithography equipment installed in the mainland.
The president's official statement fully shows that ASML understands how serious the consequences of this matter are, and will even exceed the shipment limit of lithography machines, because it will affect the lithography machines that have been sold, and more importantly, affect ASML's sales reputation.
Recently, ASML has put forward the idea of possibly moving out of the Netherlands, which is actually putting pressure on the Dutch government in disguise.
The Dutch government is more aware of the importance of ASML to ASML, so it quickly set aside 2.5 billion euros to improve the infrastructure where ASML is headquartered, and will also provide ASML with other tax incentives and other benefits.
Not only that, Dutch Prime Minister Rutte also visited China for the first time in five years, and one of the agendas was to communicate about lithography related issues and seek solutions for ASML.
In this regard, some foreign media directly said that the farce of lithography machines is coming to an end, and it may be difficult for the United States to restrict the maintenance of lithography machines.