(The author, Xia Yu, is the chief researcher of Shanghai Institute of Industrial Transformation and Development)
In the current process of stimulating the economy and promoting consumption, different forms of shopping festivals are being held in various places; most commercial complexes are also accustomed to being named after a certain shopping center; and the government or businesses stimulate consumption, often in the form of issuing shopping coupons or shopping subsidies in cash. In short, "shopping" is the top priority to stimulate consumption.
Why is shopping so important? It probably has something to do with the fact that people lived in a shortage economy for a long time. In the period of planned economy with material scarcity, people's desire, expectation and worship of commodities were deeply imprinted in the hearts of several generations, and formed a subtle culture. Although that era is far away from us, the "shopping" complex lingers, and it is still customary to name a festival, a building, and a promotion with the word "shopping".
Source: Pexels
In fact, the current consumption structure has long since changed. Nowadays, when people walk into shopping malls, the most popular and lively places are no longer those shops that sell goods, but a variety of catering, entertainment, sports, health, medical beauty, training and so on. In other words, these "non-shopping" consumption is rapidly "squeezing" and "replaceing" the traditional "shopping" consumption space. And this trend is probably irreversible. Why?
First, from the perspective of the consumption of daily necessities, it is a relatively flat and stable curve. For example, in the case of individuals, their daily consumption is unlikely to increase significantly every year, and it tends to decline with age. This is from the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods as well.
Third, from the perspective of the purchase of durable goods with large value, rationality is often greater than emotion. For example, the purchase of a car, etc., needs to be considered comprehensively, and the consideration of subsidies does not have much weight;
Fourth, the more abundant the material and the more selective, the weaker people's desire and sense of urgency to shop. It will not be like in the era of shortage economy, for fear of losing opportunities, rushing to grab and buy;
Fifth, the offline shopping space has been severely overburdened by the impact of online shopping methods. A massive shift to "non-shopping" consumption is required to survive.
It can be seen that shopping consumption is indispensable in satisfying people's daily life, but it may be difficult to make it grow significantly every year. What's more, at present, there is also the impact of the decline in the birth rate and the increase in the degree of aging, and it is not easy to rely on shopping to achieve a large increase in consumption.
Therefore, it is necessary to pay full attention to the transformation of the consumption structure, and on the basis of stabilizing "shopping" consumption, the focus of activation should be placed on "non-shopping" consumption. From a practical point of view, the growth momentum of "non-shopping" consumption is indeed much higher than that of "shopping" consumption, which can be said to be unstoppable.
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Generally speaking, it means that what is spent on buying not physical goods, but all kinds of service consumption that can meet the needs of spiritual, psychological, hobby, emotional, aesthetic, and health. At present, this "non-shopping" consumption has penetrated deeply into every aspect of life:
- Such as tourism consumption. It has long become a way of life for many people, what urban tours, rural tours, overseas tours, domestic tours, ice and snow tours, cruise tours, etc., the variety is rich, the region is extensive, and the driving force is unprecedented;
– such as cultural consumption. Especially in Shanghai, all kinds of art exhibitions, performing arts activities, large and small museums and art galleries, like a cultural feast, make people overwhelmed and in the ascendant;
- such as fitness consumption. Not only are all kinds of professional sports venues dotted, which commercial complex does not have fitness space?
- Such as training consumption. It is also the "standard" in all commercial projects, from EMBA to early childhood education, which is a large amount of consumption;
– such as emotional consumption. Many places have "cat house" or "dog house", hundreds of yuan an hour, often full, a group of people holding pet dogs or pet cats or pet pigs, there like friends to communicate with it, which was unimaginable in the past;
- such as health consumption. All the community businesses around residential areas, massage, beauty, nail art, yoga, foot bath, etc., account for a considerable proportion, indicating that these consumers have a stable customer and market.
- Of course, the large-scale, wide-ranging, ubiquitous food and beverage consumption is the most "rigid" of all the "non-shopping" consumption, with three meals a day and no rest for life.
Why is the growth momentum of "non-shopping" consumption higher than that of "shopping"? First, experiential consumption, in the past, people went to the store to shop for a kind of experience, but now shopping is mostly replaced by online shopping, so people need to achieve the experience through "non-shopping" consumption; For example, try it once, and if the experience is not good, you won't go next time. Shopping is different, if you don't want to learn the piano in the future, it will be more troublesome and cumbersome; third, there will be more and more products. The launch cycle is shorter than that of physical products, which is positively correlated with the level of economic development. Similar to the principle of "" reduction, especially after Shanghai's per capita GDP exceeded 20,000 US dollars, there are more and more "non-shopping" service products suitable for people's spiritual needs, and it has also largely adapted to the needs of young people in the "Z generation", and they are destined to be an important object of today's consumption.
It can be seen that facing up to the changes in consumption structure is crucial to how to guide and activate social consumption: first, the focus of consumption has shifted from "shopping" to "non-shopping"; second, daily "shopping" has shifted from "store" to "e-commerce"; third, consumption has shifted from the traditional "commercial space" to the entire "urban space", and consumption is everywhere. Moreover, there is another important function of "non-shopping" consumption, which can effectively drive and drive "shopping" consumption, and I believe that people will have such an experience.
Source: Pexels
So, how can we better guide and activate social consumption? I am afraid that we still need a "three-pronged approach":
The first is to promote development. In particular, we should vigorously support the development and growth of the private economy, so that more jobs can be increased, people can have stable jobs, and their incomes will increase, so that they can have the basic premise of all consumption.
The second is to subsidize shopping from the demand side. The guidance of "four or two thousand pounds" is necessary, and it is also a good way to achieve quick results, and it is better to have subsidies than no subsidies, and the shortcomings may be difficult to last. I remember that a few years ago, I engaged in "household appliances to the countryside", and then it seemed that there was no sound; and if the incentive of the subsidy ratio was not enough, it would also affect the effect;
The third is to support various new formats, new models, new industries and new enterprises for "non-shopping" consumption from the supply side, so that they can "emerge" and "grow" more and faster. With a large number of supply-side market players, they are much more proactive, creative and intelligent than the government to attract consumer customers. In this way, the amplification effect of policy support will also be more obvious.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
(This article is from Yicai)