Recently, UNESCO, on behalf of UN-Water, released the United Nations World Water Development Report 2024 (hereinafter referred to as "the Report"). The report notes that the importance of water to humanity is undeniable, and that water can promote peace or lead to conflict. Poverty and inequality, social tensions and conflict create water scarcity and have a counterproductive effect on peace and stability. The impact of climate change, geopolitical conflicts, pandemics, refugee flows, hyperinflation and other crises could accelerate the arrival of a water crisis. Ensuring water security requires the joint efforts of human society to sustain sustainable prosperity and peace.
Water is the foundation of prosperity and peace
The "water of prosperity and peace" means for humanity the opportunity and freedom to develop safely. Water not only satisfies the basic needs of human survival, but also supports social and economic development. In developed countries, about 50 percent of jobs depend on water, compared to 80 percent in developing countries.
Water is arguably the foundation of human prosperity and peace, and the water that flows into sectors such as agriculture, industry, energy, and commerce and services supports the livelihoods of billions of people on the planet. Currently, agriculture accounts for 70% of the water. In low- and middle-income countries, agriculture and water-intensive industries are the main pillars of the economy. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, water resources are becoming more and more important for industry and commerce. A six-year study of more than 16,000 businesses in more than 100 economies found that a single water outage costs the equivalent of 8.7% of total sales.
In the field of emerging technologies, the demand for water continues unabated. In recent years, U.S. high-tech companies have seen a significant increase in water consumption. Microsoft disclosed that from 2021 to 2022, its global water consumption increased by 34%, and Google's water consumption increased by 20% over the same period. A large portion of this water is used to cool artificial intelligence (AI) computing systems. It is reported that the AI needs to consume 500 ml of water for every 10-50 questions answered. Previously, the GPT-3 AI model consumed at least about 700,000 liters of cooling water for training alone.
Investments in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services have proven to yield significant benefits in most regions. In Chile, for example, the water sector has been turned around by adopting a privatization programme that combines tiered water prices and subsidies for disadvantaged groups in order to recover the cost of investment. In recent years, the annual net profit has reached about 100 million US dollars, which is more than double the annual financial subsidy. From 2016 to 2030, infrastructure investment to achieve safe drinking water in 140 water-scarce countries will cost about US$1.7 trillion, or about US$114 billion per year. The study estimates that the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) for building drinking water infrastructure will reach 3.4 and 6.8 in urban and rural areas, respectively.
The world's water resources are facing serious challenges
As of 2022, 2.2 billion people still lack access to safe drinking water, and four-fifths of the world's rural areas still lack access to basic water services. Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean have the largest rural-urban coverage gaps. About half of the world's population experiences water scarcity in a year, and a quarter consume more than 80% of the region's renewable freshwater resources each year. Water resource utilization is also often low in conflict-prone areas.
Per capita water consumption in developing countries, dominated by irrigated agriculture and other water-intensive activities, tends to rise in line with economic growth, while water use in developed countries tends to be more stable. However, if the water consumed in the production of imported goods in developed countries is also taken into account, then the "stability" of this water use is in fact an illusion. This is because developed economies outsource water-intensive production to developing countries, which can lead to water scarcity in exporting countries.
In a study of the water quality of 258 rivers around the world, researchers found that more than a quarter of rivers polluted beyond safe standards. Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and South America are the most polluted. In low-income countries, low levels of wastewater treatment make it difficult to cope with severe pollution, while in high-income countries, agricultural water pollution is the most serious problem. Water contaminants now found include per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), drugs, hormones, industrial chemicals, detergents, algal toxins and nanoparticles. Higher concentrations of antibiotics have been found in water bodies in all regions, which come from improperly treated domestic effluents and discharges from animal husbandry and aquaculture.
Among the water-related natural disasters, floods and droughts are the most devastating. Record-breaking extreme rainfall has been increasing worldwide over the years, as has the frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts. Climate change will accelerate the global water cycle and further increase the devastation of droughts and floods. Between 2002 and 2022, floods killed an estimated 108,000 people and caused about $877 billion in economic damage. In the two decades since 2002, drought has killed 21,000 people worldwide and cost $170 billion in economic losses.
At present, water quality monitoring data is still very scarce. In general, the areas with the greatest lack of hydrological monitoring data are also the most vulnerable to hydroclimatic hazards. The transparent sharing of data and information is essential to promote effective water management. At present, there is still no unified global hydrological monitoring system, but the number of hydrological monitoring networks designed for specific purposes by the governmental and non-governmental sectors is proliferating, and data sharing between the governmental and non-governmental sectors is limited. In addition, there may be a significant time lag between data collection and sharing, which can hinder policy development and decision-making. In order to solve the water crisis, it is necessary to solve problems such as resource disputes and water pollution through water governance cooperation, and encourage all parties to share benefits and form a cohesive force of cooperation through effective and fair means.
Actively advocating for "water for peace"
Water security and transboundary management are often complex, often challenging across borders and sectors. It requires a certain level of governance capacity and political will for cooperation on the part of all parties.
Priority is given to education. Education is a catalyst for innovative thinking and technological advancement, and conflicts over water often have a serious impact on the livelihoods of local people. In the long run, water-induced conflict can affect local education. Protracted conflict can force vulnerable groups to lose their right to education. For example, in 2018, disasters such as drought led to violent conflicts in Iraq. Women and girls in the area spend up to three hours a day getting domestic water because of the reduced water supply, which makes the dropout rate higher for women than for men. According to the report, restoring drinking water infrastructure can be an effective way to improve education in the region.
Innovate the way of publicity. Avoiding water-related crises and conflicts often requires broadening the mind and adopting inclusive intercultural solutions. In the African country of Sudan, extreme weather, population growth and environmental degradation have led to severe water shortages. The lack of water resources has sparked bloody conflicts between farmers of different faiths and nomadic herders. To this end, in 2018, the EU and the United Nations launched a pilot project to peacefully resolve some of the conflicts through experts and academics training local advocacy and training for farmers and herders. Through scientific research, pastoralist migration routes have been expanded, and water stations have been established and managed to prevent conflicts. Since the start of the project, more than 70 per cent of women and 80 per cent of men in the region have reported a reduction in violent conflicts.
Improve the level of science and technology. Due to increasing water stress, technologies to improve water efficiency and replace water resources have advanced rapidly over the decades. For example, the use of circulating water treatment technology can effectively reduce industrial waste, in the thirties and forties of the twentieth century, every ton of steel produced required 200-300 tons of water, now this figure has been reduced to 2-3 tons. In the chemical and food and beverage processing industries, every 50% increase in new energy use can reduce water consumption by 60%. In addition, upgrading science and technology has great potential to reduce regional conflicts, and the use of science and technology to avoid water crises has proven feasible in some countries. In 1965, Singapore, which had just separated from Malaysia, was heavily dependent on water resources from its neighbors. Given the tense political situation between the two countries at the time, Singapore made water security a priority. However, Singapore's freshwater resources are so limited that policymakers have had to turn their attention to technologies that can "make water". Subsequently, the country has invested, developed and applied technologies such as desalination. These efforts have largely alleviated the country's water crisis and created conditions for peaceful development. (Produced by the "Thought Workshop" of the social science newspaper, the full text can be found in the social science newspaper and its official website)