As of 12 April 2024, 23 A-share listed banks have disclosed their 2023 results. By combing through the personal loan data disclosed in the annual reports, the Beijing News Shell Finance found that in 2023, 23 banks will issue a total of 5.435 billion yuan in loans to individuals, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%.
Looking at the structure of personal loans, in 2023, the personal consumption loans and operating loans of listed banks will show significant growth as a whole. According to the disclosed data, the total scale of personal consumption loans of 21 banks has exceeded 4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and the total scale of personal business loans of 18 listed banks has increased by nearly 30% year-on-year.
Total personal loans of 23 A-share listed banks increased by 5.4%
Bank of Ningbo increased by nearly 30% year-on-year
In the past two years, the total personal loans of the 23 A-share listed banks have shown an overall upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of more than 5.0% in both 2022 and 2023, of which the growth rate in 2023 will be 5.4%. According to the classification of banks, urban commercial banks have the highest average growth rate of total personal loans, with an average year-on-year growth rate of 10.2% in 2023, and rural commercial banks with the lowest average growth rate, with an average year-on-year growth rate of only 1.9% in 2023, and 3 of the five rural commercial banks have a year-on-year downward trend.
Among the 23 listed banks, a total of 4 will increase their total personal loans by more than 10% year-on-year in 2023, namely Postal Savings Bank, Bank of Ningbo, Zheshang Bank and Changshu Bank, of which Bank of Ningbo has the highest year-on-year increase of 29.6%. The total amount of personal loans of the Postal Savings Bank grew at the fastest rate of 10.5 percent among the six large state-owned commercial banks, but in terms of scale, it was only 50 percent of that of the largest China Construction Bank. In addition, the total personal loans of Bank of Ningbo and Bank of Changshu have expanded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of more than 10% in the past two years.
Despite the overall growth, the year-on-year changes across banks showed significant variations. In 2023, a total of 5 banks will experience a year-on-year decline in total personal loans, involving 2 joint-stock banks (Ping An Bank and China Everbright Bank) and 3 rural commercial banks (Ruifeng Bank, Bank of Wuxi, and Jiangyin Bank). According to the information disclosed in the annual report, the decline in the total loans of Ping An Bank and China Everbright Bank was mainly due to the decline in consumer loans and credit card business.
To a certain extent, the changes in the credit data of listed banks reflect the changes in the overall scale of personal credit in society. According to data released by the central bank, from 2019 to 2023, the balance of household loans in domestic and foreign currencies continued to grow, from 55.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2019 to 80.1 trillion yuan at the end of 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 11.2%. Among them, both operating loans and consumer loans showed an upward trend to varying degrees, with household operating loans rising faster, with the balance at the end of 2022 exceeding consumer loans, and at the end of 2023, operating loans increased by 17.2% year-on-year.
The scale of personal consumption loans of 21 A-share listed banks exceeded 4 trillion yuan
It has been announced that the non-performing ratio of banks' consumer loans has decreased
Among the 23 A-share listed banks, in addition to Minsheng Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, a total of 21 disclosed the specific amount of personal consumption loans (excluding personal housing loans) in their annual reports. In terms of total amount, at the end of 2023, the total personal consumption loans of the 21 listed banks exceeded 4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, only Ping An Bank, Everbright Bank and Bank of Chongqing decreased year-on-year, and the rest all increased to varying degrees.
From the perspective of year-on-year changes, Bank of Communications' personal consumption loans in 2023 will increase by 86.25% year-on-year, and it is worth noting that the year-on-year growth rate of Bank of Communications in 2022 will also reach 58.38%, which means that the balance of personal consumption loans of Bank of Communications at the end of 2023 will be nearly three times that of the end of 2021, with a total increase of more than 100 billion yuan. The total personal consumption loans of Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of Zhengzhou in 2023 increased by more than 70% year-on-year, to 75.63% and 75.30%, respectively. The total personal consumption loans of China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank and Bank of Beijing in 2023 will increase by between 40% and 50% year-on-year.
In 2023, Ping An Bank will have the highest scale of personal consumption loans, but it will decrease by 9.46% year-on-year. In terms of scale, with the exception of Ping An Bank, the top five banks in terms of total personal consumption loans are all large state-owned banks; three joint-stock banks, China Merchants Bank, China CITIC Bank, and China Everbright Bank, are also in the top 10, but they all rank behind the City Commercial Bank Bank of Ningbo, and Bank of Beijing, another large city commercial bank, ranks ninth.
Among the 23 A-share listed banks that have disclosed their annual reports, 20 have also specifically disclosed the credit card overdraft amount in the personal consumption loan business. In terms of scale, the credit card business as a whole presents a pattern of concentration in the top banks. CCB has the highest credit card overdraft balance, reaching 997.133 billion yuan, and there are 7 banks with credit card overdraft lines of more than 500 billion yuan, accounting for more than 30 percent. Among the 13 large state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, the Postal Savings Bank has the lowest credit card overdraft amount of 219.28 billion yuan, but the year-on-year growth rate in 2023 ranks first among the 13 banks, with an increase of 20.3%.
Among the 20 listed banks, 13 banks achieved year-on-year growth in credit card overdrafts, of which Bank of Beijing had the highest year-on-year increase of 38.6%; 7 banks saw a year-on-year decrease in credit card overdrafts, Ping An Bank, China Everbright Bank and Industrial Bank three joint-stock banks decreased by 11.2%, 6.5% and 11.3% respectively year-on-year, in addition to 4 rural commercial banks decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, and Ruifeng Bank fell the most, reaching 44.5%.
In the past two years, the overall supply of bank credit has risen, and consumer loans have become an important way for banks to "recover". According to a previous report by Beijing News Shell Finance, consumer loans are relatively good in all types of credit, and all banks continue to make efforts in this field. However, when developing such businesses, banks should also be vigilant against risks and hidden dangers to prevent a mismatch between consumer loans with large amounts and long maturities and daily consumption attributes.
Some banks also disclosed data on the non-performing loan ratios of personal consumption loans and credit card businesses. Compared with 2022, among the eight banks, only Ping An Bank and China Merchants Bank have increased, of which China Merchants Bank's consumer loan non-performing rate has continued to increase from 2021 to 2023. Among the eight banks that have released data, PSBC will have the highest non-performing consumer loan ratio of 1.81% in 2023, but it has decreased by 0.33 percentage points from 2.14% in 2022.
In the past two years, the non-performing rate of credit cards has shown an upward trend. Among the 10 banks that have disclosed relevant data, the average credit card non-performing rate in 2023 increased by 0.61 percentage points compared to 2021. In 2023, IB will have the highest non-performing credit card rate among the 10 banks, followed by Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank, both joint-stock banks. In addition to the above three, there are also Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which has a credit card non-performing loan ratio of 2.45% in 2023.
The total personal operating loans of the 18 A-share listed banks increased by nearly 30% year-on-year
CCB has increased by more than 80% year-on-year for two consecutive years
According to central bank data, at the end of 2023, the balance of domestic and foreign currency household operating loans was 22.15 trillion yuan, with an average growth rate of 18.2% in the past four years.
The Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter combed and found that in 2023, all 18 listed banks that announced personal business loan data will increase year-on-year. In terms of scale, a total of 10 banks have a total personal business loan of more than 100 billion yuan, and ICBC has the highest total personal business loan, reaching 1,347.136 billion yuan, which is the only bank with more than 1 trillion yuan among the statistical banks.
Among the banks with the highest scale of personal business loans, not only the total scale is large, but the growth rate is also more prominent, among which China Construction Bank has increased by more than 80% year-on-year for two consecutive years, reaching 87.2% in 2023, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China have also grown by more than 30% and 20% respectively for two consecutive years. Among the 18 banks, 12 banks increased by more than 10% year-on-year.
The non-performing rate of personal operating loans of the 9 listed banks also announced that the non-performing rate of personal operating loans showed an upward trend from the overall trend, among which the non-performing rate of personal operating loans of Bank of Chongqing was more prominent, with continuous growth in 2022 and 2023, reaching 4.42% in 2023. Another bank with a higher NPL rate is Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and the rest of the banks do not exceed 1%. Ping An Bank's non-performing ratio of personal operating loans has improved in the past two years, from 2.21% in 2021 to 0.83% in 2023.
In view of the current development of personal loans, the State Administration of Financial Supervision has also issued the latest management measures to guide it. In February 2024, in order to standardize the personal loan business of banking financial institutions, strengthen the prudent operation and management of personal loan business, and promote the healthy development of personal loan business, the State Administration of Financial Supervision issued the Measures for the Administration of Personal Loans, clarifying that the term of personal consumption loans shall not exceed five years. The term of personal business loans is generally not more than five years, and the maximum is not more than ten years for those with a long recovery period for operating cash flow corresponding to the purpose of the loan.