In April, in the middle and late afternoon, in the domestic refined oil and pig market, recently, oil prices continued to rise, domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose further during the year, some institutions believe that before the May Day holiday, oil prices or "3 consecutive rises" trend, and in the pig market, pig prices are in the stage of grinding the bottom, the price is mainly stable and weak, the specific analysis is as follows:
In terms of live pigs, from the analysis of institutional data, on April 18, the average price of three-yuan pigs outside the country was 7.49 yuan / catty, and the pig price fell by about 0.01 yuan from yesterday, and the market continued to decline.
At present, the breeding end of the slaughter sentiment differentiation, the market slaughter strategy is different, some farmers wait and see reluctant to sell, the phenomenon of standard pig pressure still exists, part of the breeding end of the subscription mentality is strong, the slaughter of large pigs is relatively positive, the domestic pig supply pattern is slightly loose! In particular, the lack of substantial support for pork consumption, consumption is in the seasonal off-season, superimposed, consumption substitution sentiment and lack of increment in catering consumption, mainstream slaughtering enterprises are under pressure, the number of orders is small, the operating rate of sample slaughtering enterprises is slightly lowered, the pressure of slaughtering enterprises is weak, and the purchase of live pigs is relatively smooth!
However, due to the bullish mentality of the breeding end, the mentality of active concentrated slaughter is not high, and in some areas, there is still a small amount of secondary breeding phenomenon, and the pig price still has a certain support!
Refined oil market: gasoline rose 875 yuan......
In 2024, domestic oil prices "rocket rise", at 0:00 on April 17, gas stations in various provinces and cities in China will implement a new round of price increases, from the perspective of this oil price adjustment, due to the past ten working days, the rate of change of crude oil is 4.3%, and the price of gasoline and diesel has risen by 200 yuan and 195 yuan / ton respectively, equivalent to the domestic mainstream 92/95 gasoline and 0 diesel, up 0.16 ~ 0.19 yuan / liter!
After the rise in oil prices, since 2024, gasoline has risen by 875 yuan/ton, and diesel has risen by 845 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to 92 gasoline rising by 0.7 yuan/liter during the year!
Taking Shandong as an example, at 0:00 on April 17, in terms of local "three barrels of oil", the price of No. 92 gasoline was 8.21 yuan/liter, up 0.16 yuan, the price of No. 95 gasoline was 8.81 yuan/liter, up 0.18 yuan, No. 98 gasoline was 9.53 yuan/liter, up 0.18 yuan, No. 0 diesel rose 0.16 yuan, the quotation was 7.83 yuan, -10 diesel rose 0.17 yuan, up to 8.28 yuan, and -20 diesel rose 0.18 yuan, up to 8.64 yuan/liter!
According to the 50-liter volume of ordinary private cars, the price of oil has risen this time, and it is estimated that it will cost 8 yuan more to fill up a tank of 92 gasoline in Shandong, and it will cost 35 yuan more during the year!
Judging from the latest feedback, with the 5th oil price rise in the year, it has entered a new round of pricing cycle, referring to US oil 85.36 US dollars, Brent crude oil 90.02 US dollars, the 9th pricing cycle of the year, the domestic crude oil change rate is at the beginning, the crude oil change rate is 0.1%, gasoline and diesel prices are expected to rise by 5 yuan / ton, and the oil price adjustment is not enough to rise the red line!
According to the domestic oil price adjustment mechanism, the 9th oil price adjustment time in 2024 will be carried out at 24 o'clock on April 30, due to the complex international geopolitical relations and crude oil consumption gradually entering the peak season, and oil-producing countries continue to reduce production capacity plans!
Looking forward to the market outlook, I personally believe that during the May Day holiday, there is still a risk of "three consecutive rises" in oil prices, and residents' travel costs may be further raised! However, due to the ongoing tension in international geopolitical relations,