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At present, in the north and south regions, the temperature continues to rise, the weather is gradually getting hotter, the market is just supporting the poor for big fat, and the southern region is constantly rainy, the risk of pig farm disease has increased sharply, and the breeding end of the subscription mentality has become stronger, however, consumption is in a cyclical trough, the market capacity is weak, the downstream market white strip purchase and sales are relatively slow, under many factors, pig prices are under pressure!
According to data analysis, slaughtering enterprises adjusted the price of pigs, on April 18, the average price of three-yuan lean pigs slaughtered outside the country was 14.95 yuan / kg, and the pig price fell by 0.05 yuan.
From the regional point of view, in the 28 provinces and regions that are monitored in the country, among them, the price of Shaanxi rose by 0.05 yuan in a narrow range, the price in South China was stable, and the price of pigs fell by 0.05~0.15 yuan/kg in most areas of the north and south. The average price of live pigs in the country is similar to the price of 15 yuan / kg in Hebei and Henan, and the price of pigs in all provinces of the country hovers at 14.15 ~ 15.8 yuan / kg, among them, the mainstream high and low market, the price in Heijiliao area is 14.3 ~ 14.7 yuan, the price in Shanxi and Hebei fell to 15 ~ 15.05 yuan, the price in Sichuan and Chongqing fell to 14.75 ~ 14.8 yuan, the price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 15.4 ~ 15.8 yuan, the price in the two lakes is 15.05 ~ 15.1 yuan, and the price in the two regions is 15.05 ~15.8 yuan/kg!
At present, pig prices continue to fall, and the factors supporting the decline in pig prices are roughly as follows:
On the one hand, due to the hot weather, pork consumption has further declined, the market has deteriorated for thick pork pick-up, the terminal market has unsatisfactory performance in the purchase and sale of white strips, the market demand for fat pigs has deteriorated, and slaughtering enterprises have purchased pigs to "pick fat and pick thin", downstream orders are few, the operating rate has decreased slightly, and the price reduction mentality is strong;
On the other hand, the price of fattened pigs weakened, the domestic pig 2405 contract quotation is lower than the spot, the market for the May pig price prospect bullish confidence is insufficient, the breeding end of the price mentality weakened, the pace of pig slaughter accelerated!
Now, in April, another key data was released, and the market was bullish on the long-term pig price, but the agency believes that the pig price prospect is still under pressure!
It is understood that the official release of the end of the first quarter, the relevant data of pig production capacity, among them, at the end of the first quarter, the sow inventory level was 39.92 million, down 500,000 from the previous month, down 3.14 million year-on-year, and the sow inventory was further accelerated!
According to this analysis, by the further reduction of the sow inventory, the market for the third and fourth quarters of the pig price bullish mentality to further strengthen, however, the previous institutional research showed that in March, the sample size of the pig enterprise sow inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, the agency data or will lead the official data, the market is still skeptical about the prospect of long-term pig prices, in particular, the domestic sow inventory continues to optimize, the sow production capacity level may be higher than expected, the end of the year pig prices are still uncertain risk!
On April 18, the pig price "fell miserably", and another key data hit, what happened? What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the picture comes from the Internet!