Metals rose alumina rose 1.89%, iron ore rose 4.25%, and industrial silicon hit a record low of #氧化铝 #铁矿

Metals Market:

As of today's day close, the domestic base metals were mixed, alumina rose 1.89%, Shanghai lead, zinc rose 0.36%, 0.51% respectively, and other metals fell below 1.00%.

As of 15:03 today, London nickel rose 1.18%, London aluminum and lead fell slightly, and other metals rose below 1.00%.

Lithium carbonate rose 0.27%, industrial silicon fell 2.90%, hitting a record low of 11,675 yuan/ton today, and European line container carriers rose 2.28%.

Iron ore rose 4.25%, coking coal rose 2.64%, rebar rose 1.94%, coke rose 1.87%, hot coil rose 1.29%, and stainless steel rose 0.43%. Among them, coking coal rose for nine consecutive days.

Shanghai gold rose 0.80%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.36%. As of 15:03 today, COMEX gold fell 0.44%, and COMEX silver rose 0.38%.

As of 15:03 today

Spot & Fundamentals

In terms of alumina:

According to SMM research, the holders of deliverables have been reluctant to sell recently, but at the same time, due to the recent shortage of storage capacity in Xinjiang's delivery warehouse, traders are also cautious in receiving goods. On the other hand, the resumption of production of individual alumina plants in Shanxi is expected, and the short-term incremental performance of the supply side is concerned. In the southwest region, the resumption of the first batch of electrolytic aluminum released in Yunnan is still being implemented, and the current performance of Yunnan water is good, and other production capacity to be resumed in the province still needs attention.

Iron ore:

In the first quarter of 2024, iron ore prices showed a sharp downward trend, of which the iron ore 05 contract fell from a high of 1025.5 in early January to 765 yuan at the end of March, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton. The Platts 62% iron ore price index fell more than $40 from a high of $143 to $101. The main reason is that the seasonal factors have little impact and the year-on-year increase in supply is obvious, but the terminal demand is less than expected, and the blast furnace hot metal production of steel mills is low. On the macro side, there is no policy that exceeds expectations.

Silicon:

Today's silicon market transaction remains flat, the current market 421# silicon quotation has a price difference of 200-300 yuan/ton, silicon enterprises in southwest China are seriously loss-making, and the price is mainly stable, and the actual signing transaction is less. Silicon buyers still maintain the sentiment of rigid demand procurement price reduction, and the spot market transactions are mainly dominated by low-price sources in the north, which drives the center of gravity of transaction prices to weaken.

Macroscopic

Domestic:

The Information Office of the State Council will hold a press conference at 2 p.m. on Thursday, April 18, 2024, at which Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and Wang Chunying, Deputy Director and Spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, will introduce the financial operations and foreign exchange receipts and payments in the first quarter of 2024 and answer questions from reporters.

Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance of China, co-chaired the fourth meeting of the U.S.-China Economic Working Group with Vice Secretary of the Treasury Shang Bo on the sidelines of the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., USA. Focusing on the implementation of the important consensus of the leaders, the two sides conducted in-depth, pragmatic and constructive communication on topics such as the global and Sino-US macroeconomic situation, balanced growth, and communication arrangements for the next step.

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Energy Bureau, the Department of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Renewable Energy Hydrogen Production Industry Safety Management Measures (Trial)". In terms of basic requirements, the construction of green hydrogen projects and hydrogen production and refueling stations outside chemical parks is allowed. Green hydrogen projects do not need to obtain a safety production permit for hazardous chemicals. The green hydrogen refueling station refers to the management model of the natural gas refueling station, and the operating green hydrogen refueling station shall obtain a business license from the gas authority. Green hydrogen transport is managed in accordance with the transport of dangerous goods, and the relevant permits for the transport of dangerous goods shall be obtained from the competent department of transport for green hydrogen road transport.

On the US dollar:

As of 15:03 today, the dollar index fell 0.16%. In his speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that policymakers will wait longer than previously expected to cut interest rates after a series of surprisingly high inflation data. Powell noted that if price pressures persist, the Fed can keep interest rates steady "for as long as it is needed."

On April 17, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1025 yuan per US dollar per dollar

For other countries:

Kazuo Momma, the former head of monetary policy at the Bank of Japan, said the Bank of Japan is likely to raise its policy rate to 0.25% in September, following a rate hike in March. His predictions are based on the premise that historic wage growth this year will begin to boost personal consumption. This impact will be reflected in the April-June GDP data, which is scheduled to be released in August. Momma also said that the continued weakening of the yen is posing upside risks to inflation, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda may change his tone and become more hawkish after next week's meeting. "A weak yen is a problem for households and businesses, so the central bank is likely to have some kind of response to this. ”

In terms of data:

Pay attention to today's Eurozone CPI annual rate in March, March CPI monthly rate and other data.

Crude oil:

As of 15:03 today, U.S. oil and cloth oil fell by about 0.40%. The core contradiction of the current oil price still depends on the development of the geopolitical situation. Iran produces more than 3 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for about 3% of global production. Iran's deputy oil minister, Morteza Shahmirzaei, said on Tuesday that Iran is working to ensure that energy exports from the Middle East are not disrupted. Concerns about the geopolitical situation in the crude oil market have eased, and the market performance is relatively calm.

The market is also watching whether the United States will release strategic reserves again. The United States has a clear political desire to prevent oil prices from soaring. White House senior adviser John Podesa said on Tuesday when asked about the future release of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Reserve that U.S. President Joe Biden will do everything in his power to ensure that gasoline prices are at affordable levels. However, the current stock of strategic petroleum reserves is only 360 million barrels, which is not only below the warning line of 340 million barrels stipulated in the Energy Policy and Protection Act, but also far below the level of nearly 600 million barrels in early 2022, so the release capacity of this round is objectively limited.

From the perspective of inventories, API data released in the early morning showed that crude oil inventories increased by 4.089 million barrels in the week ended April 12, but gasoline inventories decreased by 2.509 million barrels and distillate inventories decreased by 427,000 barrels, which to a certain extent hedged the pressure of crude oil accumulation. The market is focused on the release of EIA inventory data today, considering that the API data that has been released shows that crude oil inventories continue to grow, and EIA inventories in the evening may also bring bearish pressure.

Tonight, data will be released on the EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to April 12, the EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending April 12, and the EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories for the week to April 12.