At the 2024SMM (19th) Lead and Zinc Conference and Lead and Zinc Technology Innovation Forum - Silver Forum hosted by SMM, Han Xiao, general manager of Zhishui Investment Co., Ltd., reviewed the 2024 gold bank situation and looked forward to future investment.
Macro monetary environment in 2024
United States
The US GDP growth rate in 2023 is 2.5%, in line with market expectations. U.S. economic growth slightly exceeded expectations, inflation is gradually receding, and financial environment risks remain. Influencing factors in 2024: Fed monetary policy, inflation level, financial environment risk. The IMF expects US GDP to grow by 2.1% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025.
Eurozone
Eurozone GDP growth in 2023 is 0.5%. The European economy is likely to recover worse than expected in 2024, mainly due to the war in Ukraine. The IMF expects eurozone GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025.
China
China's GDP growth rate in 2023 is 5.2%. Maintaining a healthy economy is a top priority (real estate, investment, exchange rate). The IMF expects GDP growth of 4.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.
Emerging economies
BRICS GDP QoQ
Price influencing factors in 2024
Gold and silver, two traditional precious metals, have maintained the same direction in most cases, and according to the statistics of the last ten years, the correlation coefficient between the two can reach 0.939.
►Impact: Where do precious metal prices go: The Federal Reserve's economic policy is still the main line of price impact!
Price Influence Mechanism
Focus on U.S. inflation and economic !!
Interest rate futures show that the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 96.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in June has risen to 81.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July has risen to 55.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates in September is only 68.6%.
2. Geopolitical outlook
3. ECB monetary policy: It is still necessary to beware of black swan events in the eurozone.
Where does the recent rally come from?
4. Precious metal demand
It introduced the consumer demand for gold in China.
5. Precious Metals Positions and Positions
6. Precious metals hedging positions
7. Speculative positions in precious metals
Price analysis
Han Xiao said that the factors affecting the price of precious metals in 2024 will focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Combined with the combination of fundamental and technical factors, it is expected that the first half of 2024 will be a wide range of upward shocks, and the second half of 2024 may break through the wide range of upside space to open. In 2024, the upper pressure of gold is near $2,500 and the lower low is near $2,100. In 2024, silver prices are under pressure above $34.0 and below at $24.0. In 2024, the price range of silver TD will be 6,000 yuan/kg-8,000 yuan/kg.
Investment strategy
Hedging strategy
It is expected that metal prices in 2024 will be a wide range of shocks and upward processes, for precious metals and upstream enterprises in the lead and zinc industry chain. Enterprises with mines can not insure the price. For precious metals and lead and zinc industry chain midstream and trading enterprises. You can buy high and sell low to hedge your value, lock in the buying and selling price, and avoid the risk caused by price fluctuations in the precious metal market. For precious metals and downstream enterprises in the lead and zinc industry chain. When there is a shortage of raw material inventory, the company can avoid the loss caused by the price increase by buying it at an appropriate price.
Investment strategy
Medium and long-term speculative traders continue to hold long positions near $1600 / ounce, and below 2100, they can consider opening medium and long-term long positions.