$8/kg, $6.7/kg, $5.5/kg, where is the bottom of polysilicon?
文 / NE-SALON新能荟小编团
2023 has been a rollercoaster year for the polysilicon industry. Large price fluctuations reflect the instability and volatility of the market, and its overall movement is divided into three distinct phases:
At the beginning of the year, under the pressure of weakening seasonal installed demand and oversupply, polysilicon prices fell sharply from 240,000 yuan/mt to 150,000 yuan/mt, a drop of nearly 40%.
From mid-January to early February, polysilicon prices rebounded to 220,000 yuan/mt, not exceeding the previous high, as polysilicon manufacturers were forced to adjust production after a sharp decline, resulting in a temporary shortage of supply.
From mid-February to June, due to the double impact of surging production and slow demand growth, prices plummeted by 60% from 220,000 yuan to 60,000 yuan. After that, the market entered a weak and volatile state, which lasted until the end of 2023.
In 2024, the supply and demand pattern of the polysilicon market will become more complex. According to the production plans of major polysilicon factories in China, a large amount of new production capacity will be ushered in in the new year. For example, Xinjiang Qiya, Hesheng, Jingnuo and other enterprises will invest in new production capacity in different time periods, and it is expected that the new production capacity will reach 1.18 million tons throughout the year.
So what do industry insiders in other countries think about polysilicon prices in 2024? In a recent interview with PV Magazine, Wantenaar expressed some of his views that the current oversupply of polysilicon will still put considerable pressure on prices.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China's polysilicon production capacity has reached 1.43 million tons by the end of 2023. If the major producers can meet their production schedules, China's polysilicon production is expected to exceed 3 million tons by the end of 2024, and this rapid growth will undoubtedly lead to a further decline in polysilicon prices.
Wantenaar said the current polysilicon price has fallen from $8 to $6.70 per kilogram in the first few months of 2024, hitting a new low.
As a direct consequence of the price drop is the reduction in the cost of PV modules, he pointed out that it is the continued low polysilicon price that has led to a drop in PV module prices from US$0.130/W at the beginning of 2024 to US$0.122. And this price refers only to the price of these products before they leave the factory in China, and does not include any transportation and customs costs.
According to statistics, China's production capacity reached 2.4 million tons at the end of 2023, while the actual output was 1.43 million tons, equivalent to about 550GW. And he believes that "with a little bit of thinning wafer technology, 2.4 million tonnes of polysilicon would be enough to produce 1,000GW of solar".
However, Wantenaar mentioned that although polysilicon prices are now very close to production costs, the marginal cost reported by Daqo New Energy in the fourth quarter of 2023 has fallen to $5.60 per kilogram. However, based on the "acceptable price" for 10 months, new production capacity continues to increase.
At the end of the interview, Wantenaar was cautious about the future of the market. He expects the overall polysilicon market to remain above US$5.50 per kilogram in 2024.
In Q3 and Q4 of this year, feedstock prices may have risen slightly due to seasonal demand, but by the first quarter of 2025 they are likely to enter a downward cycle again, while PV module prices are also expected to fall to US$0.110/W by the end of the year. Source: NE-SALON XW