Author: Cheng Mo
Executive summary: 1. Israel has not yet decided how to retaliate against Iran; 2. The latest bill proposed by the Republican Party to aid Ukraine is purely to deceive public opinion; 3. The Ukrainian army has never reached the point of running out of ammunition and food, and the fighting on the contact line between the two sides is still stalemate; 4. Zelensky signed a new conscription and mobilization law; 5. The Security Service of Ukraine used a drone saturation attack to destroy a large long-range radar station on the Russian mainland.
Many media outlets reported that Israel had notified the United States that it would launch a retaliatory strike against Iran. I can say with certainty that this is fake news.
In fact, the Israeli government issued a proclamation that previous wartime cabinet members had failed to reach a consensus and that an emergency cabinet meeting scheduled for Tuesday had been postponed to Wednesday, today. At the time of writing, I have not seen any statement from the Government of Israel.
The U.S. Government urged Israel not to retaliate so as not to further complicate the situation in the Middle East. But I think Israel will adopt a more modest retaliatory strike package against Iran, most likely stepping up attacks on Iranian military targets in Syria and Lebanon, rather than hitting Iran itself.
In addition, a senior Israeli official told the media on April 16 that Hamas had rejected the latest detainees exchange agreement. The official said Hamas demanded the release of Israeli detainees in the first phase of the agreement, a permanent ceasefire in the second phase, a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and an unrestricted return of Palestinians to northern Gaza. The official said the latter three were unacceptable to Israel.
This is consistent with my previous judgment. Although there have been occasional reports from the parties involved in the negotiations that an agreement is imminent, I have always believed that there is no possibility, because the positions of the two sides are far from each other, and there is no room for compromise.
The latest news came from the bill to aid Ukraine, which was blocked by the U.S. House of Representatives for half a year, that is, after the Republican members of the House of Representatives held a closed-door meeting, they put forward an inexplicable "one split four" plan, which seems to be just a delaying measure by the Republican Party to ease social pressure, and the real intention is to continue to obstruct military aid to Ukraine in accordance with Trump's election proposals.
On April 15, local time, Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, a Republican member of the United States, announced after a meeting with Republican members of the House of Representatives that the package of foreign aid bills would be split into four separate bills and submitted to a vote as soon as possible after soliciting opinions from all parties. The four bills that were spun off are the Israel Aid Act, the Ukraine Aid Act, the Support for Allies in the Indo-Pacific Region, and the Adoption of the Bill to Strengthen National Security.
He said that the purpose of splitting the foreign aid package into four separate bills is to get the support of congressmen from both parties as soon as possible for the aid to Ukraine and aid to Israel. He added that the current escalation of conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East is that "China, Russia and Iran are all watching" how the United States will defend its allies.
The bill includes controversial elements such as allowing the United States to seize frozen assets of Russia's central bank and imposing sanctions on Iran. Since there is a huge controversy over the transfer of assets of the Russian central bank seized by the United States to Ukraine, this in itself will make it more difficult for the bill to pass. The bill currently passed by the United States is to transfer to Ukraine the assets of entities and individuals who have violated US law and evaded sanctions against Russia after the court has determined the violations. The confiscation of the legitimate assets of enterprises and individuals has subverted the constitutional cornerstone of the sanctity of private property in Western countries, so no Western country dares to do so at present. If Russia is defeated, it is a different matter for the International Court of Justice to order Russia to pay Ukraine compensation.
Because Johnson's aid bill for Ukraine did not tie up domestic issues such as immigration, it aroused strong dissatisfaction among Republican hardliners, who threatened to prevent the bill from being submitted to a vote. U.S. President Joe Biden made it clear that he would not agree to any other aid package to be passed separately until the aid bill was passed.
(Republicans continue to block military aid to Ukraine)
Whether it is pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian media, whether it is Russian officials, Ukrainian or Western officials, they are all openly saying in unison that if Ukraine does not have US assistance, Ukraine will lose this war, and the Russian army will continue to attack Ukrainian territory. This makes pro-Russian people rejoice, and pro-Ukrainian people are very anxious.
I insist on the same judgment on this issue recently, and make the following five simple points:
1. The United States' cessation of military aid to Ukraine has indeed made it more difficult for Ukraine to resist the Russian army's offensive and regain territory, but whether it is in the past, present or future, there is absolutely no such thing as the so-called Ukrainian army running out of ammunition and food. The Ukrainian side emphasized the difficulties in order to get more aid, while the pro-Russian media hyped that the Ukrainian side had run out of ammunition and food, or that the aid to Ukraine had exhausted the West's arms stocks, and that it was a night whistle -- to embolden the Russian army.
2. Now the Russian army fires an average of about 20,000 artillery shells per day, the Ukrainian army fires an average of about 6-7,000 artillery shells per day, and about 2,000 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are launched at the same time. The number of drones used by the Ukrainian army on the front line exceeds that of the Russian army by 20 times. With the appearance of a large number of Ukrainian drones on the battlefield, Ukrainian drones have destroyed about 70% of Russian armored vehicles in the past month. Based on all aspects of information, I believe that the Ukrainian army has enough weapons and ammunition to effectively stop the offensive of the Russian army and continue to inflict heavy casualties on the Russian army.
3. Since the beginning of this year, the Russian army has indeed made insignificant progress in the eastern part of Ukraine through a continuous offensive that is not afraid of death, but it has also paid huge losses in personnel and equipment. In fact, the war potential of the Russian army is constantly being consumed, while the war capability of the Ukrainian army continues to increase. With the help of the Western camp, the military-industrial complex of Ukraine quickly recovered and developed. On the contrary, due to the sanctions of the Western camp, the production capacity and technological level of the Russian military-industrial complex are constantly shrinking. The process of eliminating the war potential of Russia and Ukraine is still accelerating.
4. After the Russian army captured Avdiivka, it only launched two battalion-scale mechanized attacks, and was beaten by the Ukrainian army to the point that it lost its armor and quickly retreated; for several months, it has been mainly a "human charge" at the company and platoon level, and there has been no large-scale build-up of personnel and equipment of the Russian army.
5. Although the hardliners of the Republican Party are trying their best to block military aid to Ukraine, the United States will not be able to give up Ukraine in the end based on its own global interests. Even if the United States finally stops military aid to Ukraine, Ukraine and its allies still have an overwhelming economic, technological and military advantage over Russia, and in the end Ukraine can still defeat Russia and restore national sovereignty and territorial integrity, but it will take longer, and at the same time, Ukraine will need to pay greater sacrifices.
(Front-line Ukrainian artillery fighters)
On April 16, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed an amendment to the law on military service mobilization and Selective Service registration (that is, the law on conscription and mobilization), which will take effect on May 16, 2024.
The new law lowers the minimum age for military service from 27 to 25, sends recruitment notices via SMS and email, and increases penalties for those who evade military service. This means that Ukrainian conscription will become easier, and those who evade military service will pay a greater price.
Ukraine's National Security Service told the media on April 16 that it had recently used drone saturation bombing to destroy a large Russian long-range radar station "Nebo-U" in Bryansk Oblast.
The Russian army uses this large radar station, which can monitor Ukraine's airspace for up to 700 kilometers, detect the movement of large weapons and equipment in Ukraine, and guide Russian bombers to attack the assembly of Ukrainian equipment. The National Security Service of Ukraine also previously destroyed another Nebo-U station in Belgorod Oblast, as well as a large Kasta-2E radar station near Berdyansk, occupied by Russian troops in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
On the 784th day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian General Staff announced that the battle losses of the Russian army (including Russian local, enterprise, and separatist groups) in the past 24 hours were as follows: 710 Russian troops were annihilated (dead and seriously wounded), and a total of 456,100 Russian troops were annihilated; Destroyed 4 tanks, 18 armored vehicles, 1 air defense system, 24 fuel tankers and logistics heavy-duty vehicles, 2 sets of special equipment (mainly electronic warfare equipment), 15 artillery pieces, intercepted 2 suicide drones, 1 missile.
(Russian army battle losses counted by the Ukrainian side on April 17)
Based on various information, I roughly estimate that the losses of Ukrainian officers and soldiers are about 95,000, of which the number of dead and seriously injured is also 1:1, and more than 20,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed. The warriors of Ukraine who died defending their homeland will return to heaven with glory and be with God.
Let us continue to pray that God will give peace and put an end to wars, that the wicked may be rewarded and the good be sheltered.