The case of Cai Songsong, the star fund manager of the former Sino Fund, and other non-state functionaries who accepted bribes and offered bribes to non-state functionaries shocked the market. At present, the trial of the case has been concluded and the verdict is awaited.
After Cai Songsong took over Sino Analytica Growth Mix in 2018, he bet heavily on the semiconductor chip industry, and with the subscription of countless people, the net value of the product increased from 380 million at the end of 2018 to about 33 billion at the end of 2020, becoming Cai Songsong's representative work of Sino Analytica.
Cai Songsong, who has a master's degree and a doctorate in chip design at the Institute of Computing Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, should know the power of the semiconductor cycle better than any peer fund manager. However, in the process of Cai Songsong's investment in some semiconductor companies, he completely ignored the laws of the industry cycle, and bought more and more to buy and even buy the holding line, which was once 20 times the "bull stock" Zhuo Sheng Micro (300782. SZ) is one of them.
According to the 2023 annual report of Sino Analytica Growth Mix, Zhuosheng Micro is still the third largest heavy stock, and Cai Songsong's successor Liu Huiying reduced his holdings in Zhuosheng Micro in the fourth quarter of last year, accounting for 6.5% of the fund's net asset value, and the number of shares held fell sharply by more than 32% quarter-on-quarter.
Crazy bets on Zhuo ShengweiZhuosheng Micro's main business is engaged in the design and development of RF chips, and its customers are mainly Android mobile phone manufacturers. In June 2019, Zhuosheng Micro was listed on the GEM at an issue price of 36.29 yuan per share, and became the focus of the market due to the 14 consecutive price limits after listing, when Cai Songsong managed Sino Growth Mix for less than a year.
The listing of Zhuosheng Micro coincided with the upward stage of the current semiconductor cycle, and it was also the heyday of the investment momentum of the A-share semiconductor industry. Under the performance growth brought about by the cyclical prosperity and the heat of market speculation, the A-share semiconductor sector entered the main rising wave of 104.77 market, and the China Semiconductor Chip Index rose by 104.77% and 50.91% in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
In this round of semiconductor market, Cai Songsong continued to increase his position in the leading stocks in each link of the semiconductor industry chain, and the net value and scale rose.
Specifically, in the third quarter of 2019, Cai Songsong opened a position in Zhuo Sheng Wei for the first time, and bought the stock as the fourth largest heavy stock in Sino Growth Mix, as of the end of the third quarter of 2019, Zhuo Sheng Wei accounted for 6.66% of the net value of the fund, and in the fourth quarter of that year, Cai Songsong added 900,000 shares, accounting for 8.44% of the net value of the fund. During this period, the share price of Zhuosheng Micro rose all the way, rising 244.24% and 9.45% respectively in the third and fourth quarters of that year, and the third quarter was the highest quarterly increase since listing.
As of the end of 2019, the top 10 heavy stocks of Sino Analytica Growth Mix were GigaDevice, Weir Shares, Shengbang Shares, Beijing Junzheng, Zhuosheng Micro, China Software, China Great Wall, Wingtech Technology, Dongshan Precision and North Huachuang, and 7 of them are semiconductor industry chain companies.
At the end of 2020, Zhuosheng Micro was the sixth largest heavy stock in Sino Analytica, holding 5.7474 million shares, accounting for 9.53% of the net value, and by the end of 2021, Sino Growth held 7.6719 million shares of Zhuosheng Micro, accounting for 9.15% of the net value.
It should be pointed out that in the second half of 2020, Tianjin Xundu Venture Capital Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as "Tianjin Xundu"), the original shareholder of Zhuosheng Micro, reduced its holdings as soon as the ban was lifted, and Tianjin Xundu reduced its holdings of 1.7997 million shares of Zhuosheng Micro from July 22, 2020 to December 29, 2020, with an average price of 518.23 yuan, and a total of about 933 million yuan. In the second half of 2020, Cai Songsong increased his net holdings of Zhuosheng Micro by about 1,889,400 shares.
When the industry's prosperity was on the upswing, Cai Songsong's increase in positions was understandable, but what puzzled investors was his purchase and sale of Zhuo Shengwei in 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the China Semiconductor Chip Index entered a unilateral downward trend, falling 23.18% in a single quarter, which is the market's expectation of a decline in cyclical prosperity.
At that time, the demand for consumer electronics such as smartphones and tablets had declined significantly, and the semiconductor industry cycle had entered a downward stage, but Cai Songsong was buying more and more, and his increase in Zhuo Shengwei rose to the highest level in history.
In the first quarter of 2022, after Cai Songsong sold Zhuosheng Micro slightly, he increased his position by a total of about 17 million shares in the second and third quarters, becoming the largest heavy stock of Sino Growth Mix. Among them, in mid-September 2022, Sino Analytica Growth Mixed "raised" Zhuosheng Micro, and the number of shares held at that time accounted for 5.0065% of the total share capital, holding a total of 26.7221 million shares. As of the end of 2022, Sino Analytica Growth Mixed became the second largest shareholder of Zhuosheng Micro Outstanding Shares, holding 6.36% of the company's outstanding shares.
After hitting the highest share price of 790.3 yuan (without reinstatement) in the first half of 2021, the share price of Zhuosheng Micro entered the correction stage. From the second half of 2021 to the end of 2022, Zhuosheng Micro continued to decline, with a cumulative decline of 78.73%, during which the maximum drawdown exceeded 85%, giving up almost all the gains after listing, of which in the third quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the stock fell by about 35%.
Why do you violate the law of the cycle and are obsessed with Zhuo Shengwei
In 2022, in the process of Cai Songsong's resolute increase in Zhuosheng Micro's position, the actual controller of Zhuosheng Micro completed part of the cash-out. ON DECEMBER 16, 2022, ZHUOSHENG MICRO ISSUED AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON THE COMPLETION OF THE REDUCTION OF SHARES BY THE ACTUAL CONTROLLER AND PERSONS ACTING IN CONCERT, AMONG WHICH XU ZHIHAN, FENGCHENHUI (FENG CHENHUI), AND HUIZHI INVESTMENT, 3 SHAREHOLDERS REDUCED THEIR HOLDINGS BY A TOTAL OF 9.4999 MILLION SHARES, ACCOUNTING FOR 1.78% OF THE TOTAL SHARE CAPITAL, AND CASHED OUT ABOUT 970 MILLION YUAN FROM SEPTEMBER 5 TO DECEMBER 15, 2022. In the third quarter of 2022, Cai Songsong increased his holdings of about 7.4 million shares of Zhuosheng Micro, and at the end of the quarter, Sino Analytica's position in Zhuosheng Micro was the highest during Cai Songsong's management.
If Cai Songsong increased most of the stocks of the top ten heavy stocks, it may be understandable to "raise the card" Zhuo Shengwei. However, throughout 2022, Cai Songsong will be net sellers of heavy stocks such as SMIC, San'an Optoelectronics, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Weir Shares, GigaDevice Innovation, etc., and Zhuo Shengwei, which has the largest increase in holdings, has any outstanding fundamentals?
In fact, in the first half of 2022, the declining performance growth of Zhuosheng Micro has appeared, with operating income and net profit attributable to the parent company falling by 5.27% and 25.86% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of the year decreased by 35.5% year-on-year, and the revenue and net profit in the fourth quarter fell by 30.48% and 86.13% year-on-year, and the profitability fell off a cliff, and the annual revenue and net profit decreased by 20.63% and 49.92% year-on-year respectively. This means that in the visible downward cycle and declining performance, Cai Songsong will make a desperate bet to "raise his card" Zhuo Shengwei in 2022.
The investment method of cross-position semiconductors makes the profit and loss scale of Sino Analytica Growth Mix fluctuate with the fluctuation of the semiconductor cycle. In 2021, the current round of semiconductor cycle peaked, the valuation of the semiconductor sector rose to an all-time high, and the net value of Sino Analytica Mixed peaked simultaneously, and in 2022, in the deep correction of the whole sector, Sino Analytica Growth Mixed lost 12.93 billion yuan, with an annual return of -40.04%.
"In the upward and downward stages of each round of the semiconductor cycle, the changes in terminal demand are very obvious, and the demand for consumer electronics represented by smartphones, tablets, and laptops accounts for the dominant position in the semiconductor market share, and only a few global giants can relatively smoothly pass the downward phase of the cycle. A person related to a major domestic semiconductor factory told reporters.
According to the performance report, the company's annual revenue was 4.378 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.165 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.06% and 8.92% respectively. On the evening of April 17, Zhuosheng Micro announced the first quarter performance forecast, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 192 million yuan ~ 198 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.82% ~ 69.97%. In the first quarter, the company relied on its own production line to continuously increase the market development of RF filter module products, and the scale effect of module products brought by filter breakthroughs continued to increase, making the performance increase compared with the same period last year.
According to public information, on September 29, 2023, Cai Songsong left Nuoan Fund and has not updated his performance information since then. The first three quarters of 2023 are the last three full quarters in which Cai Songsong is in charge of Sino Analytica, with a net sale of 5 million shares of Zhuosheng Micro in the first quarter, about 2 million shares in the second quarter, and about 6.6 million shares in the third quarter. After Liu Huiying took over Sino Growth, the fund manager sold about 4 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2023. As of the end of 2023, Zhuosheng Micro is the third largest heavy stock of Sino Analytica Growth Mix, holding 9.0504 million shares, accounting for 6.5% of the fund's net value.
(This article is from Yicai)