2,900 points lost 30,000 points, 3,000 points lost 60,000 points, and Hu Xijin did not fall into the pit that retail investors wanted to step on
The following article comes from the joint efforts of man and god, and the author's thought stamp
Lao Hu's three questions
#01
When the index goes up, the account loses
Hu Xijin speculated in stocks, which brought endless topics to Big A.
This is Lao Hu at 2950 points, claiming to have lost 35,000:
This is Lao Hu, who rose to 3019 points, claiming to have lost 60,000 yuan:
So, what did Lao Hu buy?
Lao Hu claimed to have invested 600,000 yuan, so from February 21 to April 14, a total of 35 trading days, Lao Hu's floating loss from 5% to 10%, and the market situation during this period is as follows:
The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which represent large-cap stocks, fell 1.5% and rose 0.5%, respectively.
The CSI 500 and CSI 1000, which represent mid-cap stocks, rose 2.7% and 5.2%, respectively;
The CSI 2000, which represents small-cap stocks, rose 10.5%;
The median of Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks rose 8.7%.
Lao Hu, who claimed to have entered the market at 3,140 points, fell 3.8% by Friday, and his account fell 10%.
Looking at these data alone, there are two preliminary conclusions:
1. Lao Hu's position is closer to large-cap stocks such as SSE 50 and CSI 300, which is also consistent with his investment reasons
2. The contribution of the over/under style to his loss is very small, and it is mainly a matter of personal operation
The index rises, the account loses, this is a common thing in the stock speculation industry, this is actually where the professionalism of investment lies, not to shout two sentences of "long China" to make money.
What are the problems with Lao Hu's operation? His usual snowball post involves not many operational parts, most of them are to encourage shareholders and call on everyone to strengthen their beliefs, however, there are also some emotional speeches and introduction of their own operations, from these operations, the new shareholders want to step on the pit, Lao Hu has not stepped on any of them, these operations may not understand why he will lose, even if he knows in advance, do not see the results with his own eyes, he does not believe it.
This article analyzes the mistakes that new investors are prone to make based on the operating habits revealed in Lao Hu's blog posts.
#02
An advantage of Lao Hu
Before pointing out Lao Hu's problem, I would like to talk about the better part of his operation, that is, he dared to increase his position in the big fall, and the following is an introduction to his increase in positions on January 18.
In fact, different investors have different ways to make investment profits, and generally being able to "sell well" requires a lot of experience and investment system.
A-shares will be given one or two opportunities to reverse the plunge almost every year, "buy well" first of all, we must dare to increase our positions in the big fall, to be able to grasp such an opportunity, not to rely on stock speculation experience, but on life experience and capital accumulation, and Lao Hu is this kind of new shareholder.
This kind of plunge opportunity is to make money from faith, betting that China's economy will not collapse, that it will continue to rise for a long time after short-term setbacks, and that you can still have the capital to increase your position.
Therefore, this kind of people often enjoy the dividends of the rapid growth of the reform and opening up economy, and will have firm beliefs, and for young people, even those "little pinks" seem to be full of faith in China's future, but because the belief is often only passively instilled in the school, it cannot stand the test, and it will fall as soon as it encounters a big fall, and they dare not make a move in the stock market crash - of course, there are reasons for not having enough money.
Therefore, in this plunge, Lao Hu showed that he really has the belief that China will win, which is different from those fake leftists who "believe in the fortune of the country and invest in American real estate" - if Lao Hu can add more money in the next crash, it will better reflect the role of the unity of knowledge and action in investment.
However, there will always be a time when all faith-based investment methods fail, either verified in you and me, or the next generation, of course, this failure is equivalent to dedicating yourself to your ideals and seeking benevolence, after all, you believe in the national fortune because you believe in the national fortune, not because you believe in the national fortune to make money, right?
Okay, that's all for the praise, let's talk about three typical problems in Lao Hu's operation.
#03
Problem 1: There are only ups and downs in the eyes
On March 15, Lao Hu's post recorded a rebalancing operation:
I only did one operation this week, that is, there was a stock that has been performing very well, fell for two consecutive days, and fell by more than 5% the next day, just at that time I looked at the market and captured such a big decline, so I didn't hesitate to sell a part of a stock that rose and fell with the broader market, and added it to this stock that fell sharply.
To put it simply, it is to make up for the position in the fall, because Lao Hu has always been operating with a full position, so he can only sell one stock, what to sell? He chose the mean, "stocks that rise and fall with the market".
Because I can't see the position, I can't comment on the rebalancing itself, but here Lao Hu reflects the habit of novice operation - the operation is mainly bullish on the rise and fall.
Stock investment can be divided into two basic schools: technical trend investment and fundamental value investment, and it can be said that no matter which one, the rise and fall cannot have a separate reference value in decision-making:
In technical trend analysis, the meaning of rise and fall is completely different in different trend stages;
In fundamental value investing, the rise and fall itself is meaningless, and it needs to be combined with the fundamentals to judge the reasonableness of the valuation or the degree to which the stock price reacts to the positive and negative.
It's just that "rise and fall" is the most significant and direct signal in the stock market, and its impact on investors is intuitive and instantaneous, especially for larger ups and downs, before your brain has time to make a rational judgment, your emotions have made a buy or sell reaction for you.
Therefore, not only newcomers, but most investors cannot get rid of the impact of "ups and downs" on decision-making, and only experienced investors will quickly recover rational judgment after experiencing countless ups and downs.
Bullish operation, the most likely phenomenon is to lose less than 10% of the ticket, boldly make up the position; lose more than 20% of the ticket, lie flat and pretend to be dead, this method of operation from the probability of speaking, every few times there will inevitably be a part of the position is deeply set, if not cut meat, in the end all positions are deep set.
What's more, the bullish operation, in the end, I don't know whether my operation is right or wrong, just like Lao Hu said later:
The situation in the next two days is that the stock I covered the position is still falling slightly, and there has not yet been a big rebound I expected, so I don't know if I did the right thing this time to adjust the position, if I still have funds now, my approach will be which stock falls big, I will buy which, I am still quite afraid of chasing up.
In addition to the confusion about their own operations, there is another common intuitive reaction of new investors - it is safer to buy stocks that have fallen sharply, and stocks that are rising cannot be chased.
This is still based on the "rise and fall" to judge the investment value, if it is an index, this statement has some truth, but individual stocks are bottomless, even if Lao Hu buys white horses, but Vanke was not also a model of A-share value investment before? Who can guarantee that the white horse he holds is not the next "Vanke"?
#04
Problem 2: Misattribution
Another common mistake made by Lao Hu is to interpret the operation results too intuitively.
For example, there is a paragraph in the post on Friday:
It seems that it is not possible to speculate on stocks and hold a few stocks for a long time, what Lao Hu thought before was to hold a few stocks that I thought were good for a long time. It seems that there is a need for swing management for each stock, buying it when it is low and selling it when it is high. Buy and sell every day, retail investors will definitely lose, to be accurate, to hold the bought stock for a period of time, but when it reaches a relatively high point, you have to sell.
Lao Hu's logic goes like this:
Fact: Holding several stocks for the long term
Result: Lost
Conclusion: Swing management should be done for each stock, buy it when it is low and sell it when it is high
Any investment is an event that is "always changing, there is no end", if you don't sell, the stock price will always change, if you sell, the stock price is also changing, and the results you see are only temporary, so you can't judge whether the buying and selling is correct based on the results.
The review of investment is mainly a review of the process, the result is not the most important, good decisions can lead to bad results, and bad decisions can also lead to good results.
The process includes your investment objectives, investment plan and specific execution, mainly to look at deviations, and if you want to judge deviations, you need to have an investment system.
The premise of summing up experience is to find the causes, and the premise of finding the causes is to know what the most probable causes are, and to know this, you have to have experience first - this becomes an endless cycle, so Hegel said: "The only lesson that mankind can learn from history is that mankind cannot learn any lessons from history." ”
If you don't want to become a professional shareholder, try to make as simple an investment as possible, such as index ETF regular investment, which has the simplest plan, the clearest execution, and the simplest review of the process.
#05
Problem 3: I can't copy my homework
A celebrity like Lao Hu openly speculates in stocks, and I believe that the most important thing is the advice of experts, but this is the third problem that Lao Hu did not deal with well - unable to correctly adopt the advice of others.
In a blog post on October 20 last year, Lao Hu wrote:
I have already had the experience of buying stocks according to the "master" and losing a lot of money. I bought one of the stocks according to the instructions, and it has lost 17% in more than a month, which is the worst loss of the stock I have so far.
As a big V who has to "copy homework" for others every day, I am too good at this question, so let's talk about the answer first: directly "copy homework", and the result is likely to be unqualified.
First of all, divide the big V who recommends stocks to you into short-term players and medium- and long-term players.
If the other party is really a short-term master, you will definitely lose money in the long run. The reason is very simple, the big V from "yourself optimistic" to "tell you the stock", there must be a time difference, short-term stocks are generally near the rise and far down, the probability of this time period is up, assuming two points, which means that every time you earn (thanks to) two points less than the big V.
Don't underestimate these two points, the winning rate of short-term masters is 60%, earn and lose, on average, each ticket is the expected value of 0.5 points, one ticket a week, 25% a year, and you copy other people's homework, people earn a point, you lose a point, a loss of 25%.
Looking at the recommended stocks of medium and long-term big V, it is also a problem of asynchronous cycles.
Others say that they are optimistic about the fundamentals of XXX, which is generally medium and long-term, and you see that it is good, and you buy it immediately, but in fact, his purchase cost is very low, and he just holds it in the near future. After a few days of falling, others will start to increase their positions slightly as soon as they see that they are cheap, and you can only grit your teeth and increase your positions to spread out the cost. But if you continue to fall, your mentality will collapse, and you will cut the meat, just when others increase their efforts to build positions.
In a few days, it will continue to fall, you are so happy, what is the master, it is not as good as me, so I deleted it from the self-selected stocks. After a few months, others said that XXX could take profits, and when you looked at it, you found that it had already doubled the price you sold for.
The problem is that most of the time A-shares can't wait for cheap, so the good price of a good company is not absolute, but it should be compared with the varieties of positions, but the varieties in everyone's hands are different, and this comparison only depends on your own understanding of individual stocks.
Not only recommending stocks, but also looking at other people's views There are also many "pitfalls" caused by bad habits: when many people look at the views of big V, they like to look for words and phrases that are in line with their own holdings from the more comprehensive views of big V, so as to strengthen their own views, and fall deeper and deeper in the wrong direction.
In investment, there is only study, no copying homework, copying homework once or twice may make money, but it is ineffective to only copy and not learn for a long time.
#06
Summary: Three overestimates and three underestimates
Lao Hu posted a post on November 30 last year, I think that people with rich life experience like him are still making very rapid progress in self-regulation.
How can he have "three underestimates + three overestimates" in stock investment:
First, he underestimated the professionalism of stock investing and overestimated the role of belief – the three misconceptions or habits analyzed earlier.
Second, he underestimated the law of development of the market itself and overestimated the role of policy.
Lao Hu entered the market in August last year, and many people with a "keen sense of political smell" regard this as a policy signal. Moreover, if it is really a policy task, it just means that the stock will follow its own internal laws, and the impact of the policy on it is only temporary.
Judging from Lao Hu's speech, he saw the drag of the economic recession on the stock market, but wishful thinking that a good policy can turn the situation around, and he also saw various institutional congenital defects in A-shares, but naively believed that he could rely on the power of supervision to change himself - this is the reaction of his consistent political philosophy in investment.
Finally, the difficulty of long-term investment is underestimated and the role of long-term investment is overestimated.
Although unlike people in the investment circle who always put "friends of time" on their lips and walls, Lao Hu also regards the long-term as a "self-evident" axiom for investment, so he will also feel that it is inappropriate to hold it for a long time, and try to operate the band again - the result is that he loses faster.
This is a typical "underestimation of the difficulty of long-term investment, overestimation of the role of long-term investment", the difficulty of long-term investment is not to "hold it dead", this fool will, but to find a suitable target for "holding it dead", but such stocks are rare in A-shares.
Moreover, A-shares, as a market with huge volatility and junk stocks are generally overvalued, Buffett's long-term investment method has no obvious advantages for ordinary retail investors.
The most reasonable investment method for non-professional retail investors like Lao Hu is to invest in ETFs to obtain normal index returns, and if they want to obtain excess returns, they should dare to take out other assets at home and take heavy positions when the market plummets at the annual level - if it were not for the replenishment on January 18, he would have lost more by now.
Investing is a very professional thing, but the difference between the profession of investment is that everyone can make money even if they are not professional investors as long as they find their strengths.