As early as 2016, the mainland liberalized the two-child policy, and the number of births reached 18.67 million that year. Since then, the number of births has been declining. By 2021, the mainland has liberalized the three-child policy. However, the number of births that year was only 10.63 million. Obviously, after the mainland liberalized the two-child and three-child policies, it did not achieve satisfactory results. By 2023, the number of births in the mainland will be only 9.02 million, a record low, and the birth rate will also drop to 6.39%.
As for the continuous decline in the number of births, many people think that this is a good thing: on the one hand, the number of births is declining. In a few decades, the pressure on various areas such as domestic employment, education, health care, housing, etc., can be reduced. It will be easier to find a job. Children have access to better educational resources. Ordinary people have access to better health care and housing resources. On the other hand, after the population decreases, the road traffic will be smoother, and everyone will not have to feel the congestion when traveling. In conclusion, the continued decline in the number of births is a good thing.
In fact, for the mainland, the continuous decline in the number of births will generally do more harm than good: first, it will put pressure on the payment of pensions in the future. As the number of elderly retirees grows and the number of young people decreases, the pensions paid by young people in the workforce will not be able to support the large number of retirees. It may be inevitable that there will be a gap in pension payment in the future.
Second, the growing number of elderly people and the smaller number of young people will affect the long-term development of the economy: on the one hand, most young people have an innovative and pioneering spirit, while middle-aged and elderly people tend to be more conservative. If there are too many veteran workers, it is not conducive to the long-term development of the economy. On the other hand, if there are more and more elderly people, their desire to consume is more limited, and the group that is really willing to consume is the young people. Obviously, if the number of young people is getting smaller and smaller, it will be very difficult to rely on domestic demand to drive the economy.
Third, the number of births continues to decline, which will have a huge impact on related industries. For example, maternity hospitals, confinement centers, baby products, private kindergartens, primary and secondary schools. In addition, the number of second and third children will also decrease as the number of births continues to decrease, which will also lead to a decline in the demand for improved home purchases. At that time, the real estate market will also be hit.
We believe that there are two main reasons: First, the cost of marriage is too high. Usually the bride price is more than 200,000 yuan, and the purchase of a commercial house is at least one million, which will drain the savings of the man's family for several generations and owe decades of debt. As a result, due to financial constraints, these families have no or fewer children.
Moreover, the cost of having children is getting higher and higher. Usually giving birth to a child, the average cost of raising a child from 0 to 17 years old is 485,000 yuan, which has overwhelmed many families. If you have a second or third child, the cost of raising will double, and many families can't afford such heavy economic pressure.
However, the effect of the country's birth after the liberalization of the three-child policy is not ideal. Expert Ren Zeping recently published an article on "Fertility Report 2024". Ren Zeping put forward his "new proposal" in the article, which was supported by young parents. In fact, Ren Zeping's suggestions in the article mainly include the following aspects:
First, we should fully liberalize reproductive rights and respect each family's reproductive choices. It is to let young families decide whether to have children and how many children they want according to their actual situation.
Second, increase the number of public kindergartens to reduce the financial burden on parents of children. Ren Zeping's suggestion is that the number of public kindergartens and nurseries should be increased, and the enrollment rate of children aged 0-3 should be increased. From the current 4% to 40%. In the future, the number of public kindergartens will increase, and parents will not have to spend too much money to send their children to private kindergartens.
In addition, Ren Zeping suggested that subsidies should be provided for intergenerational care. It is recommended to provide subsidies to those who take care of children in the next generation, which can not only reduce the pressure of the elderly in their later years, but also reduce the maintenance expenditure of young people and use more funds for consumer spending.
Third, give birth subsidies to families who have children. Depending on the number of children, for example, 1,000 yuan is given to a family with only one child, 3,000 yuan for a family with two children, and 6,000 yuan for a family with three children. This can not only encourage families with multiple children to have more children, but also help them reduce the pressure of childbirth, and also allow these families to drive economic growth through consumption. In short, if measures are taken in accordance with Ren Zeping's "new proposal", the phenomenon of declining domestic birth rate is also expected to be reversed.