Recently, the mental journey of most investors can probably be described as "drawing the sword and looking around at a loss".
Bank deposit rates continue to fall, and everyone should have felt it for a long time. The one-year deposit interest rate of the six major state-owned banks is less than 1.5%, and the five-year deposit interest rate can reach 2% (data source: disclosed on the websites of each bank at the end of 2023, please refer to the announcement for details for the specific time).
The benchmark for the performance of banks' wealth management products has also been lowered.
Recently, a number of banks have stopped selling three-year and five-year certificates of deposit.
In the recent "top" gold, the range of high-level fluctuations has increased. In the past 2 days, gold prices at home and abroad have fallen, and fell back below the record high. Gold, which is regarded as a "safe asset" by the public, is also very uncomfortable when it fluctuates.
……
All in all, back to the sentence at the very beginning of the article.
I don't know, but people are really panicked.
Don't worry, the intimate rich two are here again!
Assets are scarce≠ there are no assets to invest in
From the perspective of residents' financial management, "asset shortage" does not mean that there are no assets for everyone to invest, but that there are fewer assets that meet investors' expectations of high returns and returns, and the return on investment of assets has become lower.
The essential reason for this phenomenon is that the mainland is in the process of transforming the old and new kinetic energy, which will naturally drive the economy from a high-speed and brutal growth model to a pattern of slowing growth but improving quality. The level of interest rates represents the rate of return on funds, which will change with the trend of economic growth. And when interest rates are in a downward range, high-yield assets become more scarce.
But again, "asset shortage" does not mean that there are no assets to invest in. On the contrary, if the "asset shortage" will become the mainstream for a long time in the future, then instead of blindly looking for the so-called "high-yield" assets, we should think more about how to maximize the investment return of the portfolio through asset allocation, so as to iron out the impact of the "asset shortage".
Asset allocation≠ buy a little bit of everything
Asset allocation, easy to say, is the well-known saying "don't put all your eggs in the same basket", but it is also difficult to say, because "asset allocation" is by no means the same as "buy a little bit of everything".
So how do you allocate assets? What is better to buy? Let's take a look at how people buy them.
Taking the share change of ETF as an example, because it is a fund that can be listed and traded, the timeliness of the data is relatively strong, which is just convenient for us to observe the flow of funds in a relatively recent period.
Source: Wind, as of April 16, 2024.
Note: (1) Classification criteria: The classification threshold for the investment proportion of major industries is 50%, and the threshold for the classification of the investment proportion of Shenwan first-class industries is 60%, ;(2) Due to the large difference in the net unit value of bond ETFs, in order to improve comparability, the change in the share of interest rate bonds will be multiplied by 10.
First of all, most intuitively, from the perspective of the overall holding share, the equity ETF market presents a pattern of "core broad-based + industry track". Among the broad-based ETFs, the CSI 300 Index and the STAR 50 Index are held significantly more shared, especially in the pharmaceutical, technology, financial real estate, TMT, consumer and other sectors.
Asset allocation tips 1: the combination of "wide base + narrow base", which can be attacked and defended.
In the bottom area of A-shares, because the market has a certain momentum to bottom and rebound, but the main line is not clear, the experience of holding a broad base is better than betting on a single industry.
When the market clarifies the upward trend, the narrow gene has higher purity and concentration, more active trading behavior, and more explosive power, compared with the broad base often runs out of a certain excess return.
Asset Allocation Tips 2: Among the equity assets, there are both offensive, defensive, and stable assets.
In the layout of equity sub-industries, asset allocation can be considered from the offensive side, the defensive side and the middle side between the two.
On the offensive side, for example, TMT and other technology growth sectors held by domestic ETFs in the past one year are expected to open a new round of industrial cycle and release new momentum for economic growth, which will eventually be reflected in stock prices and investment income, catalyzed by cutting-edge technologies such as AI.
On the defensive side, such as central state-owned enterprises and dividend strategy funds, especially under the promotion of the new regulations of the capital market, enterprises with stable operating capabilities, higher dividend yields and lower valuations may be more suitable for layout as bottom assets.
On the middle side, the more typical ones are the rigid demand industries such as medicine and consumption, as well as the pro-cyclical industries that benefit from the economic recovery. Their market often occurs when the economy has a clear recovery trend, and the former has experienced a long period of correction, and the current layout is more cost-effective.
In addition, let's take a look at what the buying trend of ETFs can bring us in various types of assets. Although equity ETFs dominate the current ETF market, bond ETFs and commodity ETFs represented by gold have increased their holdings in each of the above dimensions.
Asset Allocation Tip 3: About 1/3 of bonds and cash-like assets, pursuing a stable experience.
In fact, judging from the experience of household asset allocation in developed countries, with 1/3 of bonds and cash-like assets, while maintaining the necessary liquidity, these two types of assets are also expected to bring relatively stable returns to the entire portfolio.
In the turbulence of the market, it is a tactical allocation to achieve expected returns by adjusting the proportion of large types of assets. But let's not forget that no matter how the market changes, the importance of strategic allocation cannot be shaken. The allocation of bonds and cash-like assets belongs to the category of strategic allocation.
Asset Allocation Tips 4: Gold assets are the "gatekeepers" in asset allocation.
In the short term, gold assets may be subject to a higher level of risk. However, from the perspective of long-term asset allocation, gold assets are still a necessary part of household assets due to their excellent anti-inflation and anti-risk attributes.
Fu Er has written a lot about gold recently. You may wish to search for "gold" in the WeChat subscription account of "Wells Fargo Fund" to view relevant tweets!
Finally, Fu Er wants to say: In the face of "asset shortage", everyone should not be too alarmed. As the saying goes, the only constant in the world is that it is always changing, and the same is true for investing. Instead of being trapped in negative emotions and unable to extricate yourself, it is better to jump out and see what else we can do~
So, have you learned the trick of asset allocation?
Investment is risky, and fund investment should be cautious.
Before investing, investors are advised to carefully read the Fund Contract, Prospectus and other legal documents. The fund manager promises to manage and use the fund assets in an honest and trustworthy manner, and does not guarantee a certain profit, nor does it guarantee a minimum return. The performance of other funds does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the Fund.
The above information is for reference only, if you need to purchase relevant fund products, please pay attention to the relevant regulations on investor suitability management, do a good risk assessment in advance, and purchase fund products with matching risk levels according to your own risk tolerance.