Reporter: Zhou Yifei Editor: Chen Xing
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced that the GDP in the first quarter of the year was 296299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6% over the fourth quarter of last year.
By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 1,153.8 billion yuan, up by 3.3 percent year-on-year, the added value of the secondary industry was 109846 billion yuan, up by 6.0 percent, and the added value of the tertiary industry was 174915 billion yuan, up by 5.0 percent.
Sheng Laiyun said that in the first quarter, the policy effect continued to appear, production demand rose steadily, employment prices were generally stable, market confidence continued to increase, high-quality development achieved new results, and the national economy continued to rebound and got off to a good start.
The reporter of "Daily Economic News" compared the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of each year from 2022 to 2024 and found that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year was the highest level in the same period in three years. In addition, since June 2022, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of the mainland's secondary industry has shown an overall upward trend in the current quarter.
What factors drove GDP growth beyond expectations in the first quarter? What role will the trade-in action have on GDP growth? Focusing on the above-mentioned questions, a reporter from the "National Business Daily" (hereinafter referred to as NBD) interviewed Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University.
GDP in the first quarter was 296299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%
The main driver of economic growth at present is investment
NBD: When we compare the GDP growth rates for the first quarter of each year from 2022 to 2024, we find that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year is the highest in three years, what do you think is driving this growth?
Su Jian: From the perspective of demand, the main factor driving economic growth at present is investment, especially the expansion of manufacturing investment. We believe that this is largely due to the implementation of the Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods (hereinafter referred to as the "Action Plan").
Although GDP grew by 5.3% in the first quarter, which can be described as a good start, potential economic risks still exist, waiting for the effect of the "stable growth" policy to be further released.
In the first quarter, investment in fixed assets increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the whole of the previous year, but private investment increased by only 0.5 percent, 4.0 percentage points lower than the total investment, reflecting that the endogenous driving force of the current economy is still insufficient.
In addition, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide increased by 6.2% in the first quarter, down 0.1 percentage points from the whole of 2023. Affected by the downward trend in income growth, the growth rate of household consumption and prices is relatively low.
NBD: In terms of industries, since June 2022, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of the secondary industry has been on an upward trend in the quarter, does this reflect the changes in the industrial structure of the mainland?
The year-on-year GDP growth rate of the secondary industry in the quarter showed an overall upward trend
Su Jian: At present, it is difficult to say that the industrial structure of the mainland has changed, because the characteristics of the industries are different. In previous years, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has had a greater impact on the tertiary industry, especially the contact service industry. As a result, there is currently insufficient evidence that China's industrial structure has changed.
At present, the role of high-tech industries in promoting economic growth is gradually increasing, whether it is the supply side or the demand side, whether it is manufacturing or service industry, we can see the vigorous development of high-tech industries.
In the first quarter, on the demand side, investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 10.8 percent and 12.7 percent respectively, 6.3 and 8.2 percentage points higher than the total investment, and on the supply side, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.5 percent year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points higher than the average level of all industries above designated size.
Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University Image source: Courtesy of the interviewee
Policies such as trade-in have a considerable effect on the economy throughout the year
NBD: Recently, the development of new quality productivity and trade-in have become the focus of attention, how do you evaluate their role in achieving the expected GDP growth target this year?
Su Jian: This year, the State Council issued the Action Plan to vigorously promote the production and application of advanced equipment with the "four major actions", promote the continuous increase in the proportion of advanced production capacity, and promote more high-quality durable consumer goods into people's lives.
Although the "Action Plan" was launched in March, the relevant financial policies have been warmed up in advance, so they have played a certain role in the first quarter of the economy, for example, the national fixed asset investment has risen steadily, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, 1.5 percentage points faster than the previous year, especially the growth of investment in high-tech industries has accelerated significantly, while the total retail sales of consumer goods have also increased steadily by 4.7%.
The mainland is a large manufacturing country and a country with a large population, and with the in-depth promotion of high-quality development, equipment investment in key areas such as industry and agriculture will be a huge market with an annual scale of one trillion yuan. At the same time, the upgrading of automobiles and household appliances can also create a market space of one trillion yuan, so the development of new quality productivity, trade-in and other macro policies on the annual economy to leverage the effect is considerable, is conducive to the realization of this year's GDP growth target.
NBD: The mainland's national economy got off to a good start in the first quarter, with the accumulation of positive factors increasing, laying a good foundation for achieving the goals and tasks for the whole year. However, it should also be noted that the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment have risen, and the foundation for economic stability and improvement is not yet solid. In your opinion, how to better consolidate the good start trend and promote the high-quality development of the mainland economy?
Su Jian: Stabilizing employment and income is the key to stable growth and promoting high-quality economic development.
From the data of the first quarter, it can be seen that due to the complexity of the international environment, there is great uncertainty in external demand, resulting in the risk of imbalance between supply and demand of domestic high-tech industries. Next, it is necessary to stabilize residents' income expectations and promote residents' demand for high-tech products to achieve healthy economic development.
National Business Daily