#精品长文创作季#
In early April, the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would not cut interest rates until inflation returned to target.
And Powell also said that it is impossible to cut interest rates as soon as possible. The United States has already done this more than once or twice.
It is not difficult for those who understand the economy to see that the US dollar does not cut interest rates this time is not only aimed at China. The global economy has been affected to varying degrees.
It seems that the United States is engaged in indiscriminate targeting. But is it really that simple behind the scenes?
Previously, the United States continued to increase Chinese export tariffs to restrict Chinese goods exports. In order to crack down on the mainland's international trade.
However, in recent years, the inflation rate in the United States has risen, and the debt has reached $34 trillion. That's not a small amount.
Coupled with the rapid development of the mainland's manufacturing industry, the United States has always been eyeing our manufacturing industry.
Without exception, this rate hike is aimed at China. The purpose is to harvest capital and at the same time suppress China's manufacturing industry.
To this end, the United States has devised a surprising plan. What is the complete plan? Is China's overcapacity real? Can the mainland's manufacturing industry survive this catastrophe? Let me elaborate on it.
First, inflation will not fall, and the dollar will not fall
The U.S. federal government claims to wait for inflation to fall to 2% before cutting interest rates, and it seems that it is only a matter of time before cutting interest rates, and it is not impossible.
But if we take a closer look at inflation in the United States, it has been fluctuating around 3% for a long time, and there is no downward trend at all.
Prolonged interest rate hikes will make some countries unable to withstand the pressure and cut rates before the Fed cuts them.
Then the currencies of these countries will depreciate against the dollar, and the prices of American imported goods will fall, which is just the right solution to the problems of inflation and national debt, which is in the hands of the United States.
In March, Switzerland announced an interest rate cut, followed by Canada, South Korea, and Mexico.
I believe that over time, more countries will definitely cut interest rates. Will the United States stop there? Certainly not.
The target of the United States this time is China, and only these few countries are far from satisfying the appetite of the United States, and the United States will never give up if China does not cut interest rates.
The Russian-Ukrainian war a few days ago has made the United States earn a lot of money, and now Japan's foreign debt is not optimistic.
With the current situation, the only thing the United States can do to reduce inflation in one fell swoop is China's money.
It has to be said that China's economy has indeed been affected.
The first is exports, and interest rate hikes have reduced the purchasing power of foreign countries, making it more difficult for the mainland to export.
Then there is the stock market, where the interest rate of the US dollar is high, the US stock market will have more funds, and on the contrary, the funds flowing into the mainland's stock market will increase and decrease, which is not conducive to enterprise investment and development.
Finally, there is the exchange rate of the renminbi, which will depreciate against the dollar. Even so, China will be able to hold its ground in this financial war.
Because the vigorous development of the new energy manufacturing industry has become the capital for China to gain a firm foothold. China has the ability to wear down with the United States.
It seems that the United States has the upper hand in this financial station. If you think so, you couldn't be more wrong.
Prolonged interest rate hikes have also affected the U.S. economy itself. His operation is undoubtedly shooting himself in the foot.
It's been two years since the U.S. interest rate hike made it less willing for companies to invest, and consumers had less demand for spending. As a result, the prices of the stock and bond markets have fallen. Financial markets in the United States are already volatile.
In addition, the more Treasury bonds are issued, the more they are owed, and according to statistics, the interest on Treasury bonds alone in the United States is now $1.4 trillion. Consuming any further consumption will do more harm than good to the United States.
But even so, the United States still has to gamble and consume China to the end. After all, this is his only chance to turn the tables this year.
Second, the lie of "overcapacity".
Yellen claimed that China's new energy manufacturing industry was overcapacity, and suggested that if China could not improve, the United States would take further action.
As soon as Yellen's words came out, many economists were dumbfounded. How can China's new energy manufacturing industry be overcapacity?
If it is said that there is overcapacity in the ordinary manufacturing industry, it can be explained, but it is the new energy manufacturing industry.
Now new energy is the global outlet, and the demand at home and abroad is very large. For China, which exports the most new energy products, new energy is not only not excessive, but even a bit too short.
Yellen's statement is unfounded. Taiwan's real-time commentator Guo Zhengliang also said: The United States is arrogant and unreasonable.
No one would have thought that the United States would be able to make up such ugly and absurd lies in order to crack down on the mainland's new energy manufacturing industry.
On the other hand, it makes sense to look at the move of the United States, and the mainland's manufacturing industry is developing very rapidly.
According to the data, in January 2024 alone, new energy vehicles accounted for 66% of global sales, 60% in normal times, 44% of the world's photovoltaic power generation, and one-third of the world's wind power generation.
These are enough to prove that China's new energy manufacturing industry has developed to a certain level, and it is in danger of the United States' status as a great power.
The United States, which has a hegemonic civilization, is naturally very anxious, not to mention that in the financial war of the US dollar interest rate hike, China has just gained a firm foothold by relying on new energy.
The move shattered the illusion that the United States was harvesting China. The United States is feeling an unprecedented crisis. So the purpose of Yellen's statement this time is very clear - it is to target China's manufacturing industry.
Analyzing what she said, her focus is not on overcapacity, but on "if China can't improve, the United States will take further action."
This sentence is equivalent to declaring war on China's new energy manufacturing industry. Either China will make concessions, or China and the United States will fight a sanctions war.
Combined with the fact that the dollar does not cut interest rates, the United States completely wants to cripple China's manufacturing industry this time.
Yellen's visit to China is the first step in US sanctions against China, and the US dollar interest rate hike is just a foreshadowing.
However, in the face of "overcapacity", the mainland behaved calmly.
Because China has the confidence to defeat hegemonism, the mainland has attached great importance to the development of new energy sources in recent years, and has made considerable achievements in various fields.
Taking new energy vehicles as an example, the mainland's export volume is 9 million units, far exceeding the United States, Germany and other Western countries.
Therefore, China has the strength to go head-to-head with the United States, and it will never bow to hegemonism.
China will face a lot of challenges next, and the United States will inevitably make a stumbling block.
The mainland has already been sanctioned by the United States in the financial field. In other areas, it is even more important to hold a firm position and be ready to meet the challenge.
3. America's earth-shattering plan
The US dollar rate hike and overcapacity are both part of the US plan, and the US wants to completely collapse China's economy and cripple China's manufacturing industry.
The first is to maintain the Fed's high interest rates and raise the prices of gold and virtual currencies.
There are many ripple effects caused by the Fed's interest rate hikes, and most of them are against us. The most typical and direct is the decline of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong.
The decline in the Hang Seng Index will lead to capital outflows from Hong Kong, which in turn will block Hong Kong's access to financing. This is quite unfavorable to the financing of mainland enterprises. Exports and foreign trade transactions have also been affected.
Second, the United States instructed the Japanese government to raise interest rates, luring global capital to Japan to eat interest.
As a result of this operation, China can attract less capital, which hinders the development of China's manufacturing industry in disguise.
Japan's increase in capital is also a disguised benefit to the United States, which has established many industries in Japan. At that time, the capital attracted will flow back into the hands of the United States, and the United States will make another profit.
Then there is the continued promotion of "de-sinicization". It is not difficult for us to see that the foreign media are making more and more unfavorable remarks about China's economy, which is also a step taken by the United States to bring down China's economy.
Let foreign media or institutions sing the short of China's economy. Through the influence of public opinion, there will be further outflow of capital from China.
Yellen's visit to China is a case in point. The visit to China is just a package, and the real purpose is to sell the Chinese economy.
The United States wants to "de-sinicize" the world and hit China's manufacturing industry in international trade. So as to achieve both internal and external sanctions on China's manufacturing industry.
Finally, it is to force companies and countries that owe dollars to repay their debts.
The last step of the United States is to close the net, force the debtor companies and countries to repay their debts, and deplete our foreign exchange reserves. China had to sell its assets cheaply, and the dollar flowed out again.
When China's capital is squeezed to the bottom, the country's development will be delayed.
After four processes, the United States has completed a new round of harvesting. If you earn a lot of money, the economy of the hostile country will be hit hard.
This is simply a seamless plan for the United States, but it is a pity that he is facing China!
The United States did not expect that China would rely on new energy to stand firm, and encountered obstacles in the first step.
China's trade surplus has exceeded 4 trillion yuan. Even if the U.S. does outflow Chinese money, China will be able to rely on this trade surplus against the U.S.
After resisting the United States at the first level, the road will not be so easy, and China will never let the United States succeed in the subsequent plan.
I have to say that the United States has really taken great pains to formulate a series of plans to attack China's development from the inside out. Fortunately, China's strength is strong enough that the United States' earth-shattering plan will not succeed.
American hegemony is doomed to failure
To sum up, whether it is the US dollar's interest rate hike or overcapacity, it is a plan controlled by the United States.
The United States has tried to stop China's development in various ways, but in the end there is only one outcome - failure.
China's development should not be underestimated, and it is by no means something that the United States and other Western countries can easily control if they want to.
I firmly believe that with our joint efforts, China will become a world superpower. But there is still a long way to go, and we must always be vigilant and not take it lightly.
Perhaps the road will be very difficult, and there will be many international challenges.
Just like China's accession to the WTO in 2001. Even if someone tried every possible means to stop it, we still rose to the challenge.
In a few months' time, the war for the Fed to raise interest rates will come to an end, and then we can see the consequences of the US rate hike.