*Note: This analysis article only represents Cui Dongshu's personal views, if you have any objections, please leave a message. *
According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales structure of the price segment of the national passenger car market continues to rise, the proportion of high-end models sales has increased significantly, and the proportion of sales of low-priced models has decreased, which is driven by consumption upgrades, and also because of the consumption upgrades of replacement groups. In 2024, the high-end consumption structure of the auto market will be further strengthened, and the retail sales of the passenger car market will be temporarily sluggish in February 2024, and the domestic retail sales recovery performance will not be strong in March, and the export contribution will support the growth.
From the perspective of structural analysis, the entry-level shrinkage, the problem of not having a solid consumption base is greater, the purchasing power of the middle and low-end is insufficient, and the price war has also broken out significantly. The upward trend in the price segment of traditional fuel vehicles is not a favorable factor to promote consumption, and it is important for ordinary consumer groups to buy entry-level cars more strongly, that is, low-end consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the purchasing power of the needs of ordinary groups, achieve a relative balance at the price end of the auto market, stimulate entry-level consumption, and realize the consumption upgrade of the first-time buyer group.
1. The more the price of passenger cars drops, the more expensive they become
In recent years, the price of the car market has continued to rise, with 134,000 yuan in 2018, 153,000 yuan in 2020, and 176,000 yuan this year, mainly due to the higher prices of hybrid and range extenders, forming a structural pull. At the same time, the average sales price of the original fuel vehicles has also increased, and the high-end of fuel vehicles has led to a large price increase.
2. The sales structure of the passenger car market price segment
According to the retail data of the China Passenger Car Association, the price segment structure trend of the national urban market is to continue to rise, with the sales of high-end models increasing significantly and the sales of low- and medium-priced models decreasing.
From 2021 to 2022, the proportion of models below 50,000 yuan continued to increase compared with 2020, mainly due to the sales contribution of micro electric vehicles. However, it has continued to decline since 2023, and the sales of models below 50,000 yuan in 2024 currently account for only 2.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from 2023. The decline in sales of conventional models of 50,000 to 150,000 units was offset by the growth of new energy vehicles, but the overall downward trend was still obvious.
The market share of models with more than 150,000 units continues to rise, with rapid growth. In recent years, the proportion of various price segments of models with more than 300,000 yuan has continued to rise, reflecting the obvious development trend of high-end brought about by the growth of new energy for passenger cars.
3. The sales structure of the passenger car class market
The highest penetration rate of new energy vehicles is small cars, with the penetration rate of mini vehicles reaching 100%, A0 class small cars exceeding 50%, and A-class new energy vehicles increasing rapidly.
The penetration rate of new energy in B-segment and C-segment vehicles has increased significantly, reflecting the obvious advantages of high-end electrification.
The increase in the penetration rate of new energy in high-end vehicles mainly reflects the trend of independent improvement.
At present, the penetration rate of new energy of 10-200,000 yuan is low, the penetration rate of high-end new energy exceeds 30%, the penetration rate of less than 100,000 yuan exceeds 50%, and the penetration rate of new energy below 50,000 yuan basically reaches 80%.
4. The structure of new energy vehicles for passenger cars
The domestic retail sales of pure electric new energy vehicles continued to grow at a high rate, and the performance of plug-in hybrid vehicles was outstanding in the past three years, and the range extension continued to grow slightly. Sales of conventional passenger cars continued to see downward pressure.
In 2023, the proportion of new energy vehicles will reach 36%, and the contribution of new energy vehicles in March 2024 will still be 41%, and the contribution of new energy vehicles will continue to increase slightly in the future.
5. The price and sales structure of various types of power in 2024
At present, the 5-150,000 yuan of passenger cars in the country is the characteristic of the core main model market, which is mainly due to the relatively high proportion of traditional fuel vehicles. There is a big difference between traditional vehicles and new energy vehicles, while the structure of plug-in hybrids is relatively concentrated in the mid-range.
6. Sales structure of internal power by price segment in March 2024
In the price segment market, the distribution of power is relatively unbalanced. Among them, the performance of pure electric vehicles in the market below 50,000 yuan is the strongest, while the performance of extended range electric vehicles is relatively strongest in the high-end market, and the performance of hybrid vehicles is relatively strong in 20-300,000 yuan.
Traditional fuel vehicles are relatively strong in 10-200,000 yuan, forming a differentiated distribution characteristics, especially the distribution of hybrid is relatively narrow, which belongs to the middle and high price range of products, and plug-in hybrid is a mainstream model. At the beginning of the year, the low-end market shrank more severely, which is also the impact of weaker consumption on the low-end.
7. Structure of conventional fuel passenger vehicles
The high-end product structure of traditional fuel vehicles is more obvious, mainly due to the high growth of more than 150,000 models, which is a direct reflection of consumption upgrading. The decline rate of fuel vehicles below 100,000 is very fast, and under the high growth of pure electric vehicles, low-cost fuel vehicles have formed a sharp decline.
8. Changes in the product structure of pure electric vehicles - high-end growth is greater
With the decline in cost and product improvement of pure electric vehicles, the performance of electric vehicles below 50,000 yuan and electric vehicles above 300,000 yuan is relatively stable, of which Tesla is still listed above 200,000 to prevent too much structural fluctuations.
At present, the proportion of electric vehicles of 10-150,000 yuan is declining, and some of them are the main force of leasing online appointments, and the market trend of A-class electric vehicles in the past two years is not strong. With the decline in lithium carbonate prices, there is still a lot of potential for new energy growth of 20-300,000 yuan.
9. Changes in the product structure of plug-in mixing - the middle and high-end have increased significantly
The increase of plug-in hybrid models is mainly in the low-price range, and after the independent plug-in hybrid technology matures, it has gained a large share in the low-price market.
10. Changes in the structure of extended-range products - the mid-range gradually increases
As a branch of pure electric vehicles, the program has been put into plug-in hybrid, and its performance continues to strengthen, with high-end and 150,000-yuan level products being stronger.
11. Ordinary hybrid products - changes in high-end share
The market share of hybrid vehicles is also continuing to increase, and the supply improvement in 2024 will lead to a gradual increase in the share. The market demand driven by policy has shifted to plug-in hybrids, and the market performance of hybrids is average.
12. Changes in the product share of various car companies
In 2024, the performance of independent brands will be very good, and the new energy will be fully developed, and the performance of range extension and plug-in hybrid will be very good. On the whole, the advantageous areas of new energy are more prominent in the high-end oil-electric hybrid brought by independent innovative technologies, and the structure of new forces fluctuates greatly, and the range extension performance is better.