Iran's revenge attacks on Israel have subsided for the time being, and the risk of spillovers from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been contained. However, there are voices that Iran does not want to be drawn into a war, but will use its strength to consume Israel with a fatigue war. Some scholars also predict that seeing the easing of the attitude of the United States and Israel in this incident may become a turning point in the de-escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Iran's attack on Israel, most of the missiles and drones were intercepted, and did not cause much damage, and public opinion pointed out that it was "thundering and raining". Subsequently, Iran, Israel, and the United States also tried their best to control the situation. It is widely believed that the attack has maintained the dignity of the three parties and that the situation will not ferment again. However, there are also voices that Iran may find another way to consume Israel with fatigue tactics.
Zhang Chuchu, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle East Studies, Fudan University:
In the context of Israel, which has always been a card of the Iranian regime, Iran has adopted a "I want to fight, I have to fight, but it is very restrained". But Iran will then intensify its efforts to mobilize these neighboring countries, each with its own interests, and even their old hatred against Israel may be even more, and their enthusiasm for fighting Israel will be even higher. So Iran will then use this fatigue tactic, constantly trying to consume Israel, dragging it into a constant state of anxiety.
There is also an argument that the attack helped to temporarily divert domestic and international public opinion from Israel, but the focus will return to Gaza. If the conflict spills over again, it will lead to an escalation of the crisis in the Middle East. Relevant scholars pointed out that Israel's top priority is to use the attack to adjust its strategy and reduce its military burden, and the Biden administration in the United States will also promote the de-escalation of the situation in order to win votes, which may become a turning point in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict towards easing.
Li Xinggang, researcher of the Institute of Circum-Mediterranean Studies, Zhejiang University of Foreign Chinese:
After Israel's retaliation by Iran, Netania publicly vowed to fight back, but abandoned it under pressure from the United States, all of which suggests that the situation in the Middle East as a whole can develop in the direction of détente. Therefore, all parties concerned should exercise restraint as much as possible, while at the same time striving to find room for mutual détente and promote a proper settlement of the Gaza issue.
Li Xinggang also said that the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will be a very long and difficult process, and it will eventually return to the two-state solution, which requires all parties to adhere to the concept that "the two-state solution can be realized."
Source: Phoenix Satellite TV's Sun Weijian and Xu Yixuan report from Beijing
Editor: Mu Mu